Dear friends and colleagues:
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated through February 4.
Since last month’s update, we’ve seen some slight further global tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate from 3.6% to 3.85%, and the Bank of Canada, which stayed steady at 2.25%, returned to a neutral posture by our algorithm (a fourth month without a cut). The Fed also held its rate at 3.63%, the ECB at 2%, the PBoC at 3%, the BoJ at 0.75%, and the BoE at 3.75%.
Our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/ Tightening (+) rose slightly again, from -6.15/10 to -5.65/10: still significant easing, but up noticeably from -7.12 back in September.
Going forward, all eyes and ears will be on Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, who will face a tough confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee—likely in March. A long-time inflation hawk, Warsh has undergone a marked avian transformation since Donald Trump’s election, re-emerging into the public debate as among the most dovish of doves.
Please be sure also to check out our CFR Global Inflation Tracker, which covers nearly 200 countries over the past quarter century.
Sincerely,
