Like much of the world, I’m waiting to see whether President Donald Trump will order strikes on Iran. (He hasn’t at the time of this writing.) As we think through what the consequences could be if he does—how a military conflict could unfold and what kind of pressure could force political change inside Iran—the following Foreign Affairs contributors have been especially enlightening.
Behnam Ben Taleblu argues that American military power could give Iranian protesters against the regime “a chance to succeed.” But Sanam Vakil and Alex Vatanka note that there are fractures within Iran’s opposition movement, and Nate Swanson, who served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team last spring and summer, warns that Tehran would have much less reason to de-escalate today than it did after U.S. strikes in June. Suzanne Maloney also lays out how that last round of fighting transformed Iran’s strategy and made it more dangerous. And, if you need a podcast, Karim Sadjadpour offers a long-term view of the possibilities in store for Iran’s political order. Together, they provide essential insight into the stakes of the present showdown, and whatever happens next.
Until next week, |
