Hi Siai,

This week reminded everyone how quickly markets can reprice risk.

Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East triggered sharp liquidations, oil spikes, and a brief crypto sell-off that wiped $128 billion from the market in hours. Bitcoin dipped hard, funding rates flipped negative, fear hit extremes… and then price stabilised.

Here's what happened and what it means.

DAY1x UPDATES

• Last week's Day1x Leaderboard winners were ustrail2001, AbleUshasUser1796, and Sbamaveddat. Strong trading across the board and well deserved rewards. They received 100 USDT, 75 USDT, and 50 USDT respectively.

• We're continuing the upgraded XP strategy. You earn 1,000 XP for every referral, the equivalent of $1,000 traded credited instantly to your XP total. On top of that, both you and your referral receive 10 USDT once the requirements are met, and you continue earning 50% of their trading fees for the life of their account.

• In last week's video, we sat down with our blockchain intelligence partner, Nominis, to discuss crypto safety and the realities of illicit activity in digital assets. We covered serious issues including fraud, drug trafficking, human trafficking, and terrorism financing, and how modern blockchain intelligence tools track, map, and disrupt these networks. With escalating tensions in Iran and heightened scrutiny around cross-border digital flows, the conversation is especially timely. There's a lot of misinformation about crypto and crime. This episode takes a clear-eyed look at the risks, what's actually happening, and how compliance technology is evolving to protect users and strengthen the integrity of the ecosystem.

CRYPTO NEWS

• War Volatility Hits Markets, But Crypto Holds

  U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a sharp market reaction, with Bitcoin briefly plunging to $63,000 before rebounding toward the $67,000–$68,000 range. Ethereum dipped below $1,850 before reclaiming ground near $2,000. Over $500 million in liquidations hit the system, and total crypto market cap temporarily dropped $128 billion. Despite the shock, Bitcoin closed the week only modestly down, showing relative resilience amid global uncertainty.

• Strait of Hormuz Fears May Be Overblown

  Concerns that Iran could choke oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil toward $80 per barrel and sparked inflation fears. Social media projected extreme scenarios, but geopolitical experts highlighted the practical limits of a full blockade. Bitcoin dipped on risk aversion but stabilized quickly as expectations shifted toward contained conflict rather than systemic escalation.

• Nvidia Earnings Trigger Risk-Off Spillover

  Crypto moved lower alongside U.S. equities after Nvidia's post-earnings pullback. Major assets dipped modestly while the Fear & Greed Index fell to extreme fear levels. $8.7 billion in options expiries added to volatility pressure. Historically, extreme fear conditions often precede local bottoms, particularly when leverage is flushed and funding turns negative.

• CLARITY Act Stalls, But Odds of Passage Remain High

  The CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate due to disputes over stablecoin yield structures. However, major institutions continue to express optimism for mid-year passage. Analysts believe regulatory clarity would reduce enforcement uncertainty, unlock tokenization growth, and encourage institutional capital back into the space. Ripple's CEO has placed passage odds at 80% by April.

• Bitcoin vs Gold: Bottom Forming?

  When measured against gold, Bitcoin may be approaching a cyclical bottom. Gold has surged 80% amid global uncertainty while $7.8 billion has flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts suggest that historically, buying during fear periods produces stronger long-term returns, especially when capital rotation eventually reverses.

• Majors Bounce Hard on Conflict Containment

  As fears of broader escalation eased, crypto rebounded sharply. Solana surged over 10%, Ethereum reclaimed near $2,000, and Bitcoin climbed back above $66,000. Weekend liquidity made moves exaggerated, but Polymarket now shows high odds of a ceasefire by late March or April, which could sustain risk appetite if confirmed.

THE BOTTOM LINE

This week wasn't about direction. It was about stress testing. Geopolitical shocks flushed leverage, funding rates turned negative, fear hit extremes, and yet Bitcoin held key levels. Regulatory clarity is progressing, institutional positioning continues beneath the surface, and capital rotation cycles are playing out in real time. Volatility is not weakness. It is transition. If conflict remains contained and liquidity conditions stabilize, this looks less like the start of a new downtrend and more like consolidation before the next structural move.

Markets reward preparation, not panic.

Weeks like this remind us that volatility is part of the cycle, not a signal to abandon conviction. Risk gets repriced, leverage resets, narratives shift, and then the market decides what matters.

Stay disciplined. Manage risk carefully. And focus on positioning for where the market is going, not where it just was.

See you next week.

Michael Chmielewski
Head of Growth & Product