Your Evening Briefing

March 03, 2026

Stocks fall in another volatile trading session as the war in Iran continues into its fourth day

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all fell, with every sector trading lower. Stocks pared steeper losses after US President Donald Trump ordered immediate action to improve the flow of oil to global markets after the US-Iran conflict caused shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to slow to a crawl.

The upward pressure on oil prices due to the war has caused traders to reverse bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first half of this year. The prediction market-implied odds of a rate cut in June are now less than 40%, down from as high as 60% last week.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Stocks that moved higher:

Plug Power skyrocketed after issuing solid Q4 sales yesterday’s post-market earnings call that more than outweighed some massive red ink on its bottom line.
Pinterest soared after activist investor Elliott Investment Management boosted its stake by $1 billion to help fund a $3.5 billion share buyback plan.
Target spiked on its 2026 sales and earnings growth outlook.
Best Buy surged on a Q4 profit beat, despite a softer-than-expected holiday quarter and missing outlook expectations.
Small-cap neobank Dave Inc. rose after reporting better-than-expected Q4 adjusted numbers yesterday after the bell.
Circle jumped amid a price target hike from Mizuho and geopolitical uncertainty.
Versant Media climbed in its first quarter after spinning off from Comcast and announcing a dividend and $1 billion stock buyback plan.

Stocks that moved lower:

Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia slumped on news that the US government is considering capping AI chip sales at 75,000 per Chinese buyer.
US memory stocks Western Digital, Sandisk, Seagate Technology Holdings, and Micron melted down after South Korean bellwethers plummeted.
Despite a fourth-quarter earnings beat, MongoDB plunged on weak Q1 guidance.
Air taxi maker Archer Aviation sank after reporting a deeper-than-expected Q4 loss after the bell yesterday.
Credo Technology Group tumbled after issuing mediocre Q4 guidance after the bell yesterday.
Core Scientific sank after reporting much lower-than-expected sales in the final three months of 2025 yesterday post-market.
AutoZone dipped on weaker-than-expected Q2 sales growth.
On Holding dropped after a weaker-than-expected 2026 sales outlook.
Shares of Paramount fell as investors became skittish about the $79 billion in debt the company would have following a merger with Warner Bros. Discovery.

Energy price spike on Mideast war has traders betting on no Fed cuts through June

US national average gasoline prices rose 3.7% on Monday, their biggest one-day jump since 2005, according to data from the American Automobile Association. Read more.

As bitcoin mining economics “have gone from bad to worse,” companies pivot and sell to survive

Core Scientific is just the latest miner offloading its bitcoin, as other miners turn their compute power to AI.

Read more.

The vast majority of Tesla Robotaxi rides in Austin still have a safety driver
In January, Tesla announced its Robotaxis would begin operating without safety monitors. It doesn’t appear to have scaled up much.
Apple updates Mac chips and amps up AI claims
Apple: “M5 Pro and M5 Max are a monumental leap forward for Apple silicon.”
OpenAI’s new GPT-5.3 Instant: Less “cringe” tone, no more “over-caveating” responses
The new conversational model is meant to get to the point faster, and avoid “over-caveating” responses.
OpenAI’s Altman: Our rushed deal with the Pentagon “looked opportunistic and sloppy”
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman shared an internal memo in which he expressed some regrets for the bad optics of the company’s hasty deal with the Pentagon, and outlined new additions that were made to the agreement.
Claude is still top of the US free App Store, as users defect from ChatGPT following Pentagon deal
ChatGPT uninstalls soared on a government deal that looked “opportunistic and sloppy,” per Sam Altman.

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