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Why measles are the canary in the coal mine
And why subsequent outbreaks of mumps and whooping cough aren't a surprise. Plus: Trump's devastating war and a burgers-and-ballet backlash online.
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The mumps virus (Mayo Clinic)
Hello! Let’s examine how Trump’s war in Iran has changed the world already, and take a fun look at a burgers and ballet backlash online. But first, here’s why measles are a critical indicator disease, and the rise in mumps and whooping cough shouldn’t surprise anyone.
😷 Measles outbreaks can tell us what’s coming next
Mumps is back, folks, and its return was entirely predictable.
The CDC says that as of Feb. 27, 11 states have reported 34 mumps cases so far this year (Alabama, California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Virginia). The agency will update its numbers again on March 27, but we already know they are significantly higher: Maryland alone had 26 cases by Feb. 19. Fortunately, its Department of Health says the state’s vaccination rate is high.
If you’re a traveler, you might want to avoid Mexico. Its vaccination rates for measles and mumps have dropped well below the level needed for herd immunity:
For measles, that percentage is at least 95%; Mexico is at 78.3%.
For mumps, herd immunity is achieved at 88% to 92%; Mexico is at 81.5%.
The situation is particularly dire for those aged 10 to 39, where antibodies to measles and mumps are present in less than 70% of Mexico’s population.
Yes, being vaccinated against these diseases does provide you with a lot of protection, so you are unlikely to contract them. But there can be breakthrough cases among those who are vaccinated in areas with an outbreak — especially mumps among people who are in places where they have close, prolonged contact with others: Think universities, schools, sports teams, jails, and prisons. In those situations, local public health officials may urge you to get a third MMR vaccine. (A vaccine for just mumps isn’t available any more.)
Other contagious, vaccine-preventable diseases are surging as well, such as whooping cough (pertussis), in the US and globally. In the US, there were 7,063 cases of whooping cough in 2023. We’ve now had two consecutive years, 2024 and 2025, in which the number of cases have exceeded 25,000. And the spread continues in 2026, with infants, young kids, and adolescents the hardest hit because they were unlucky enough to be born to stupid parents.
And none of it is surprising because the measles outbreaks have been flashing red danger lights and clanging alarm bells for months.
Let me remind you: Measles is almost completely preventable.
As vaccination rates across the US began to drop, thanks to lies from ignoramuses like RFK Jr., measles was the first disease to emerge and spread because it is the most contagious vaccine-preventable disease on the planet. It spreads ridiculously easily: One person can infect 18 others in the blink of an eye.
The current re-emergence of measles signals to epidemiologists that herd immunity is weakening — it’s the proverbial canary in the coal mine of infectious diseases. And that’s a scary prospect.
Sure, there have been previous large measles outbreaks, but they were largely confined to a few areas. In 2019, for example, there were 1,249 cases in the US. But 85% of them occurred in under-immunized, close-knit communities, such as large Orthodox Jewish populations in New York. Fortunately, the rest of the population had high vaccination/immunity levels, and local and state public health officials rapidly swung into action with control measures, including massive vaccination campaigns. Both of those factors helped limit the size and spread of the outbreaks.
But when you have lots and lots and lots of areas where vaccination and immunity rates are too low, then the disease is going to gain a foothold and move from one under-protected community to another, all over the country.
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US CDC graphic
That’s what’s happening right now: That wall of protection we worked so very hard to erect with the development of these three vaccines in the 1960s is cracking.
Let’s catch up with what’s going on with measles in the US:
2025: 2,258 confirmed measles cases and 50 outbreaks in 44 states plus New York City, and another 25 cases among international visitors to the US.
First 2 months of 2026: 1,277 new measles cases and 12 new outbreaks in 30 states plus New York City, and another 4 cases among international visitors to the US.
So in just the first two months of the year, we already have had more than half the cases that we had all of last year. And those are just the confirmed cases, not the probable cases that states track.
I told you in a recent Fast Forward what some of the devastating effects of measles can be, including long-term dangers.
Mumps causes flu-like symptoms plus painful swelling of the salivary glands. One painful complication can be swollen testicles. You just have to wait it out, resting and taking pain relievers.
Whooping cough is a different story, and can be far more serious. It can be especially devastating for infants and can result in death. Those infected have coughing fits because of a buildup of mucus in their airways, and struggle to take in enough air, making a desperate “whooping” sound. Infants can stop breathing.
We saw it with the COVID-19 vaccine: So many Americans are willing to maim and kill children and vulnerable adults in the name of politics. What sort of country are we?
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