| The central bankers' headache |
Another negative week for financial markets. The drop was more pronounced on Wall Street, while Europe posted a limited decline. Markets are still moving in step with the conflict in Iran and reacting to fluctuations in oil prices. Oil has stabilized around $100 despite various announcements about the use of strategic reserves. Inflation fears remain very much on investors' minds, while the main central banks are meeting next week.
|
|
| This week's gainers and losers |
Up:
Nebius Group +26.44% : Nvidia announced a EUR 2bn investment in the company to jointly build AI-dedicated cloud infrastructure. The deal positions Nebius as a central neocloud player.
NIO INC +22.59% : The company returned to profit in the fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue growth, and expects to double its revenue in the first quarter of 2026. HSBC upgraded the stock from hold to buy, while Nomura and Yuanta Securities also turned positive on the name.
Xpeng +15.3% Stellantis is reportedly in talks with the company regarding agreements related to its European assets, as part of a possible reshaping of its operations in Europe. At the same time, Volkswagen has started production of its first model developed in partnership with Xpeng in China.
Iren Limited +13.3% This week, the company announced it was increasing its AI cloud capacity to 150,000 GPUs and launched a capital increase of up to USD 6bn in ordinary shares to finance this expansion.
Down:
Fair Isaac -23.36% : The credit-scoring specialist is suffering from the launch of an aggressive low-price strategy by its competitors (Equifax, Experian and TransUnion) around VantageScore 4.0. This is direct competition to Fair Isaac’s scoring system in the mortgage lending sector.
Centene -21.08% : The insurer announced a larger-than-expected decline in customer enrollment in Obamacare. This came on top of a summons from the House of Representatives as part of an investigation into alleged fraud linked to ACA subsidies.
Paramount -18.93% : The stock is being dominated by uncertainty surrounding the merger with Warner Bros. In addition, the Teamsters union is urging the U.S. Department of Justice to block the merger due to a lack of guarantees on jobs and labor conditions.
Rotork -15.2%: The British group initially saw its stock rise following the release of strong sales and profit results for 2025, but a weaker outlook for the oil and gas sector sent its share price lower.
GoDaddy -13.55% : The U.S. company published annual revenue guidance below expectations, due to slower-than-expected adoption of its new services. Analysts remain broadly confident on the stock nonetheless.
Atlassian -10.06% : The group is beginning a deep restructuring. The announcement of around 10% workforce cuts to refocus on AI did not have the same success as Block’s. The annual 55% decline reflects deeper concerns about AI monetization. |
| Commodities |
Energy: Tensions are rising in the oil markets. Brent gained nearly 10% this week to reach about $101 per barrel, while WTI, which is less sensitive to geopolitical friction, rose 6% to around $95. The continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz obviously explains this price increase. Producers in the Persian Gulf can no longer export their crude oil normally, and their storage infrastructure is filling up rapidly. To deal with this lack of space, several countries are reducing production. This is the case for Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and also Saudi Arabia. Faced with this supply tension, governments are deploying emergency measures. The International Energy Agency announced the release of a record volume of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. At the same time, the U.S. government suspended certain economic sanctions targeting Russian oil for 30 days, until April 11. It should nevertheless be noted that these measures, while temporarily easing the markets, do not solve the root problem. The use of strategic reserves is a short-term measure. A lasting decline in crude oil prices depends on one condition only: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market will keep prices elevated as long as crude flows do not resume through this area.
Metals: Broadly speaking, aluminum is posting a sharp rise because of risks to global supply. By contrast, a stronger U.S. dollar is weighing on gold and copper. Aluminum prices reached their highest level since April 2022, above $3,500. The conflict in the Middle East is directly threatening production. The region accounts for around 10% of global aluminum supply. Gold is struggling to move higher despite geopolitical tensions. The yellow metal is trading around $5,100 per ounce. The rise in oil above $100 per barrel is reviving inflation fears. This economic backdrop is prompting the Fed to delay rate cuts. This monetary environment is strengthening the U.S. dollar. A strong dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which limits demand.
Agricultural products: Agricultural prices are rising in Chicago. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the sharp increase in oil prices are pushing soybean, wheat and corn prices higher. Wheat is trading around 600 cents per bushel, corn around 460 cents, and soybeans are up to 1,217 cents (May 2026 contracts). |
| Macroeconomics |
|
Macro: The end of the week gave investors a faint smile in light of the latest macroeconomic releases from the United States. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, came in line with expectations at +0.4% month-on-month, while personal spending surprised to the upside with a stronger-than-expected rise of +0.4% versus +0.3% estimated. Of course, the effects of the Israeli-American intervention in Iran are not yet reflected in the data. Thus, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices should stay high and weigh on growth, fuel core inflation and limit the Fed’s room for maneuver. On that point, the status quo is favored for next week’s meeting, and only one rate cut is now expected for the whole year versus two previously. Meanwhile, the bond market tightened sharply, as illustrated by the German 10-year yield moving very close to its 2023 highs at 3.02%. Europe remains dependent on energy imports (oil and natural gas) and is therefore very sensitive to price movements.
Crypto: In what is otherwise not a very supportive backdrop for risky assets, bitcoin is on track to post its best week since September 2025. The leading cryptocurrency is up 9% since Monday and is once again flirting with $72,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have meanwhile seen more than $400m in net inflows since the start of the week. BTC is still down 17% since the start of 2026. As for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, ether (ETH), the trend is similar. It too is heading for its best week since September 2025, with a 9% rise, moving back above $2,000. The two largest crypto treasuries in the world helped support this rally. Michael Saylor, head of Strategy, remains extremely aggressive on bitcoin, with another 1,360 BTC purchased on March 9, 2026, a record. On his side, Thomas Lee is continuing his bullish strategy on ether through Bitmine Immersion Technologies, which announced the purchase of 60,976 ETH, equivalent to $128m. One thing is certain: despite a still fragile environment, crypto treasuries continue moving forward without flinching, even if that means exposing themselves to their main risk, namely a violent collapse in cryptocurrencies that would melt the value of their reserves and put their business model under pressure. |
The conflict with Iran could end very soon, but we must go all the way. That more or less sums up Donald Trump's remarks this week. Make sense of that. What is certain is that the economic consequences of the ongoing war will be visible for weeks, if not months. And the markets are gradually starting to price that in.
It is in this context that the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank are meeting next week. In the short term, the status quo is the preferred solution, while waiting for more clarity. But in any case, there is no real good solution. An energy shock means both lower growth and higher inflation.
The MarketScreener team therefore wishes Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell and all their colleagues the best of luck. And an excellent weekend to all of you. |
|
|
Things to read this week
|
 |
Death of Memory Chips: timing its fall
Samsung Electronics crossed $1 trillion in market cap, SK Hynix is nearing $500 billion, and the KOSPI is up 30% YTD on the back of two stocks. The last time... Read more
|
 |
Explainer: How does the equity research market work?
Every day, banks and brokers publish notes on listed companies, with "Buy", "Hold", or "Sell" recommendations on stocks and target prices raised or lowered.... Read more
|
 |
Central banks at a deadlock
A single tool cannot solve every problem. Read more
|
|
|
