Almost every economic downturn of the past half-century was kicked off with soaring oil prices. President Donald Trump just bet his presidency that he can defy that history.

A full month after shipping traffic stalled in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is heading into the most politically perilous stage of his war with Iran with three major gambles. 

He’s counting on a conflict that escalates for a few more weeks before de-escalating rapidly. He’s betting the world’s most important waterway for oil will reopen quickly. And he’s hoping consumers in the U.S. and around the world will ignore the mounting damage and remain confident about the economy. 

The problem with all of his bets: Much of the world is out of time. The economic toll of the war is poised to grow far more severe in the coming weeks as stopgap emergency measures from the past few weeks are exhausted. 

In a speech Wednesday night, Trump promised to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages” — a phrase that originated during the Vietnam War — and to undertake actions that will likely embolden Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz from reopening for several more weeks. Since more than 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait, analysts are now bracing for the commodity to reach $150 to $200 a barrel — from around $100 a barrel before Trump’s speech began — as supply shortages become clearer.

Read Sudeep Reddy’s analysis here.

Surveys regularly show that many Americans do not have access to enough cash to cover an unexpected emergency expense of $1,000, one reason why high oil prices can cause deeper economic problems.

Here are some highlights of the president’s actions over the past seven days:

The news can feel overwhelming. But each week, we pause to highlight a person, organization or movement sticking up for their principles or their fellow Americans. This week’s challenger is legal scholar Keith Whittington.

Whittington is not just a leading conservative legal scholar. He’s also one of the leaders of the “new originalism” school of legal thought, which seeks to put the “original public meaning” of a law at the center of analysis, instead of the founders’ intent. So when the Yale Law School professor weighed in on Trump’s birthright citizenship case in several articles and as part of an amicus brief, it may have helped influence the Republican-appointed justices. Whittington argued that Trump’s executive order amounted to revisionist history. “The conventional wisdom is right, and the Executive Order is wrong,” he wrote in the brief. “Children born within the territory of the United States are natural-born citizens except under very narrow exceptions.”

Symone Sanders Townsend and Eugene Daniels analyze how culture and politics collide in their original podcast, “Clock It with Symone & Eugene.” This week, they are joined by Rachel Maddow to question if President Trump can distinguish reality from fantasy. Plus, Eugene’s emotional plea for Americans to understand the importance of realizing they have agency. Listen now and subscribe to MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts for ad-free listening and bonus content.