Brent crude prices edged up on Wednesday to just under $100 per barrel, while WTI crude traded at around $91/bbl. Iran has claimed that the U.S. blockade of its ports, which Trump said would continue, is a breach of the ceasefire and that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a result.
There are reports of cargo ships in the waterway being fired upon again this morning, and it’s unclear when - or if - fresh talks between the two sides will commence.
Nevertheless, world stock markets and Wall Street futures are more upbeat about an eventual de-escalation - as they have been for most of the past week - and are looking elsewhere for direction.
Most obviously, they’re looking in the effervescent tech space. South Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese stocks continued to set new highs overnight, with Korea's chip giant SK Hynix breaking into the top 20 of the world's most valuable companies.
Tesla’s results after the bell tonight will likely focus on the firm's energy and solar business, robotaxi plans and its proposed move into chip design. Intel, the big mover of the month, will also report on Thursday. A 50% stock price gain in April so far makes it one of the best months for the chip giant on record.
Wall Street index futures edged up ahead of Wednesday's bell.
The other focus of the past 24 hours was Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing in Congress. There were few big surprises, and Treasury markets and the dollar remained steady afterwards.
Warsh insisted he had not been asked by Trump to commit to interest rate cuts and concentrated instead on his plans for "regime change" in the Fed's policymaking framework and his longer-term wish for the Fed’s balance sheet to be reduced.
Just before Warsh spoke, Trump said he would be disappointed if his new appointee did not deliver immediate rate cuts - but with price pressures back on the boil, that looks like a distant hope. Markets see less than a 50% chance of the Fed resuming easing for the rest of the year.
Meanwhile, March U.S. retail sales were up more than forecast, even when big gas pump receipts are stripped out. The broader economy seems to have weathered the oil shock so far - at least for one month.
Elsewhere, UK inflation for March came in higher than expected - rising to 3.3% from 3.0% the prior month - but core prices excluding energy were more subdued.
With that, onto today's column.
