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Good morning,
The Sure Dividend investing method is about:
- Identifying the best income securities to buy
- While avoiding mediocre or worse securities
We seek to accomplish this with our 2-point investment approach:
- Expected total returns
- Dividend risk
What makes Sure Dividend unique is our comparative analysis between dividend stocks in the Sure Analysis Research Database (SARD).
The Sure Analysis Advantage
The Sure Analysis Research Database contains reports on more than 900 income securities, including:
- All Dividend Kings
- Many REITs and MLPs
- All Dividend Aristocrats
- All Dividend Champions
- All individual monthly paying income securities
- Most stocks with 5+ years of rising dividends
Note: We will continue to increase the number of securities we cover going forward. Our goal is to cover all individual securities (stocks, REITs, MLPs, BDCs, etc.) with 5+ years of consecutive dividend increases as measured in USD.
The security reports in The Sure Analysis Research Database are updated quarterly by our team of researchers so the information in them stays relevant.
“The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game. And that’s always been my investing philosophy.”
– Peter Lynch
We use the same investing framework for all securities to compare potential investments to one another on an apples-to-apples basis. These metrics include:
- Buy/Hold/Sell Rank
- Expected total returns
- P/E ratios
- Fair value price
- Expected growth rates
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- Dividend Risk Scores
- Dividend yields
- Dividend growth streaks
- Payout ratios
- And many more
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Note: See here for our glossary page for definitions of our metrics.
Expected total returns are central to the Sure Dividend investing method.
Investing Framework: Expected Total Returns
We use an expected total return framework for the securities in our database.
Interestingly, all returns come from only three sources:
- Dividends (or distributions, interest, etc.)
- Growth on a per share basis (typically measured as earnings-per-share)
- Valuation multiple changes (typically measured as a change in the price-to-earnings ratio)
Combined, these three sources make up total return.
“As a registered investment advisor, I use Sure Dividend as one source in locating the best high-yielding dividend stocks. Since I manage both taxable and non-taxable accounts the objectives are a bit different. The common feature is maximizing long-term total return with minimum risk.”
– Sure Dividend member
Historical total return, while interesting, is not what matters in investing.
It’s expected future returns that we care about.
And since total returns can only come from the three sources mentioned above, you can use the expected total return framework to clarify your thinking on where you expect total returns to come from.
We calculate five year forward expected total return estimates for all of the 900+ securities in the Sure Analysis Research Database.
This means you can compare the total return profiles of securities to one another using the same framework. This is an especially powerful tool to employ in your investment portfolio.
The image blow shows the expected total return distribution of the 900+ securities we cover in Sure Analysis.
Note: Data from the 3/17/26 SARD spreadsheet.
Investing Framework: Dividend Risk
Expected total returns are one side of the investing coin. The other is risk.
We are focused on income producing securities because that’s what matters for a sustainable retirement (or early retirement).
The big risk with dividend investing is dividend reductions or dividend eliminations.
We assign a letter grade ranking to all the income-paying securities in our database using our Dividend Risk Score.
Dividend Risk Scores take into account:
- Recession performance
- Dividend history
- Payout ratio
The longer a company’s streak of consecutive dividend increases, the lower its payout ratio, and the better its historical (and/or expected) recession performance, the better its Dividend Risk Score.
The Dividend Risk Score gives you the ability to quickly compare the relative dividend safety of different investment opportunities.
How To Benefit From This Information
Five year forward expected total returns and Dividend Risk Scores from Sure Dividend give you the power to quickly compare different individual income investment options to one another.
All of our premium services are powered by data from the Sure Analysis Research Database and use metrics from our expected total return and Dividend Risk Score investing frameworks.
“It saves me so much time and effort and you and your staff do a super job of analysis of each of the top tens. Your work makes my job much easier and more accurate, and my results are the best they’ve ever been. Thanks so much for all your deep research and the long-term approach which yields a super list of great companies available at good buy prices. Your service and that of your fine staff, makes my final decisions so easy with rock solid info on rock solid choices. Please continue.”
– Sure Dividend member
SARD is our absolute highest tier of service. It gives you access to ALL of the valuable work we do, including:
- The Sure Dividend Core Newsletter
(Normally $588/year billed monthly)
- The Sure Dividend High Yield Newsletter
(Normally $588/year billed monthly)
- The Sure Dividend Growth Newsletter
(Normally $588/year billed monthly)
- Sure Analysis services
+ Weekly Top 10 email
+ Daily updated spreadsheet
+ Quarterly 3-page PDF reports on 900+ securities
(This is, by far, our most valuable service)
Note: Click here to see everything you get with SARD.
"My goal is to invest in high quality, long-term stocks. Specifically, mostly high dividend stocks. Sure Analysis, in my opinion, is an amazing tool to build my retirement portfolio."
– Sure Analysis member
Why Now Is The Best Time To Upgrade To SARD
Now is the absolute best time to upgrade to SARD because the SARD Lifetime Event is currently in effect.
Details are below:
- One Payment Discount Price
+ Our 3 newsletters together are $1,764 annually
+ And that doesn't include our most valuable SARD info
+ SARD is normally a bargain at just $999/year
+ You can join now for just one payment of $999
+ There are no other charges, ever
- Lifetime Access
+ This offer gives you lifetime access
+ You get total access to SARD for its lifetime
+ Sure Dividend & SARD are built for the long run
+ We plan to serve generations of members
Note: We haven't offered the SARD lifetime plan for just $999 since August of 2025. And there's a good chance we won't ever offer the lifetime plan (especially at this deeply discounted rate) again.
- Member-Friendly Terms
+ We treat members the way we'd want to be treated
+ Prorated refunds for any current refunds
+ 60-Day full refund period on your lifetime plan payment
+ Email us at support@suredividend.com
+ Email me directly at ben@suredividend.com
- Hard Deadline
+ The SARD Lifetime Event is a no exceptions offer
+ Once it's gone, it's gone forever
+ It ends at 8:00 PM CT on April 27th, 2026, in just:
There's no risk in trying the Sure Analysis lifetime plan thanks to the 60-day full refund period.
But there is serious value in getting lifetime access to SARD to grow your long-term dividend compounding portfolio.
Click here to join the SARD lifetime plan now
Email me directly at ben@suredividend.com.
To your compounding dividend income,
Ben Reynolds
Founder, Sure Dividend
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