Peace talks tentatively scheduled for this week have stalled as neither side showed up, and Iranian officials continue to regard the ongoing U.S. blockade as a breach of any existing ceasefire.

The ongoing tension between the two sides is being reflected in the latest rise in oil prices, with Brent crude topping $103/bbl and WTI trading at over $94/bbl early on Thursday. Both benchmarks rose more than 3% on Wednesday, with Brent closing above $100/bbl for the first time in more than two weeks.

Stocks pulled back on Thursday as a result, despite a sweep of earnings from top tech and industrial firms that helped propel the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new records yesterday.

Major Asian indexes closed lower on Thursday, despite also hitting fresh highs earlier in the session. U.S. stock futures also dialled back before Thursday’s bell, while European shares opened lower.

Tesla topped the earnings slate after the bell on Wednesday. Its share price initially jumped on news of positive free cash flow, but this was more than reversed as investors digested a sharp increase in estimated capex for 2026 to more than $25 billion.

IBM also disappointed on Wednesday, reporting slowing revenue growth in the first quarter on sluggishness in its software business. That news sent its shares down some 6.5% after hours as the fears of AI disruption that triggered late February’s software selloff appeared to resurface.

Boeing, on the other hand, saw its shares rise by 5% after reporting a much smaller first-quarter net loss than analysts had expected.

Chipmaker Intel, a big winner so far this month, will report later today. Its supercharged share price - up over 75% in 2026 so far - got an additional lift from news that Tesla would use its 14A chip technology for its Terafab chip complex project.

Elsewhere, April business surveys across Asia, particularly in Japan, showed eye-catching resilience in the face of the energy squeeze. On the other hand, business activity in the euro zone saw a surprise contraction in April as demand for services fell at the sharpest rate since October 2023.

With that, onto today's column.

Central bankers have always sliced and diced inflation statistics to burnish their record of hitting targets over time. But there's growing speculation that the incoming Federal Reserve boss may try to shift the goalposts.

Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's congressional hearing this week was broadly as expected: he affirmed a belief in Fed independence, and outlined his views on Fed reform, balance sheet reduction and the long-term trajectory of the economy.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.