Tariff refunds are set to begin after the US Supreme Court ruled Donald Trump’s tariffs unconstitutional. US Customs and Border Protection has launched the first phase of its refund system, allowing importers to file claims—potentially benefiting export-focused companies.

India's middle class is in deep trouble. Education no longer guarantees prosperity. Jobs are disappearing, especially in IT. Wages are not keeping pace with rising costs. Household debt is soaring, often for consumption. AI is further threatening jobs. This consumption engine slowdown impacts the economy. The middle class has limited political voice.

Brokerages remain constructive on banks despite near-term headwinds. Prabhudas Lilladher flags NIM pressure, slowing retail credit and macro risks, though credit growth has rebounded. Domestic funds see attractive valuations after FII selling, favouring large private lenders. BNP Paribas finds the risk-reward favourable, while Tata MF expects FY27 earnings upgrades. However, persistent FII outflows may continue to weigh on bank stocks.

HSBC has downgraded Indian equities to "underweight," citing surging energy prices from the Middle East war as a threat to the country's earnings recovery. With Brent crude above $100 a barrel, inflation and growth risks are elevated, making India less attractive than North East Asian peers. Earnings forecasts are expected to be revised lower, and foreign investor concerns are mounting.

Despite a significant Rs 1.3 lakh cr exodus in Q4, Foreign Institutional Investors selectively increased stakes in 120 Indian stocks. These companies are linked to domestic growth, balance sheet strength or niche industry leadership, indicating continued capital deployment in specific attractive pockets.

Indian smallcap stocks have surged dramatically in April, with some gaining up to 79%. The Nifty Smallcap 250 has outperformed the Nifty50, driven by domestic investor confidence. Experts are split on the sustainability of this rally, with some seeing a structural uptrend and others a sentiment-driven surge. Valuations are a concern for some, while others point to strong earnings.

Shares of Tata Power and Adani Power surged as heatwave alerts from the India Meteorological Department raised expectations of higher electricity demand, with analysts weighing their risk-reward appeal.

Indian equities have staged a sharp recovery, with Nifty up 9% this month, surprising bears who anticipated a deeper dip. Despite geopolitical tensions, market sentiment has shifted to a 'buy-on-dips' approach, with experts suggesting the market is near a bottom. Analysts advise staggered buying as near-term direction depends on Middle East de-escalation, crude oil prices, and foreign flows.

Tata Consultancy Services is gaining attention after Morgan Stanley reiterated an “Overweight” rating with a ₹2,880 target, implying ~10% upside. Despite short-term pressure on the stock, the brokerage expects a recovery in growth and potential valuation re-rating, signalling a possible turnaround.

Defence stocks are rallying sharply with strong technical breakouts, though select heavyweights signal near-term overbought conditions. Analysts advise avoiding chasing the surge and instead adopting a buy-on-dips strategy. Broader market momentum remains positive, with selective opportunities in smallcaps and identified stocks showing potential upside.