Euronews readers and viewers love it when we talk about enlargement — the European Union’s, that is, of course. That’s why I feel strongly compelled to bring you this story, which went completely under the radar this week.
On Monday, the woman in charge of expanding the Union at the European Commission, Slovenian-born Marta Kos, made some very interesting remarks.
Kos is determined to make enlargement — meaning bringing more European countries into the European Union — happen under her watch. And her measure of success (or failure) as a Commissioner rests on a single benchmark: can the EU go from 27 to 28, possibly all the way to 30, during this Commission? In this portfolio, you cannot talk your way around it — you enlarge or you don't.
For Kos, the accession of Ukraine — a candidate country since 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion — is career-defining. Diplomats who know the Commissioner well will tell you she has not given up on accelerating the process, despite pushback from capitals, repeated vetoes, and her boss Ursula von der Leyen often encroaching on her portfolio.
To make Ukraine's accession happen, all kinds of ideas are being floated: reverse enlargement, gradual voting rights, no veto, even a symbolic entry to the Union without legal membership. That’s because everyone around the table understands that Ukraine will join the EU, but its accession will not be a standard one, simply because the country is in extraordinary circumstances.
They also understand that the question of Ukraine’s future in the EU will inevitably become part of peace negotiations with Russia, and that the US will want to offload as much responsibility as possible onto the Europeans. Without NATO, the alternative is the EU. The Ukrainian president is often accused by critics of being a maximalist in his demands. Supporters argue he has little choice but to push hard to secure even the most basic progress. What is clear is that Zelenskyy will push for a precise accession date to be put on paper.
Which brings me back to Kos. Her goal now is to formally open all clusters for Ukraine — and Moldova — by July. In Brussels legalese, clusters are the benchmark areas all candidate countries must meet, ranging from internal reforms to rule of law, in order to align with EU standards. When it comes to Ukraine, the Commission argues the country is technically ready to begin the process, but a veto from Hungary has blocked any real progress.
Officials see an opportunity to reset with Péter Magyar in office, as his position on Ukraine is far more nuanced than that of his predecessor, Viktor Orbán.
Orbán argued for years that Kyiv should never join the EU and vowed to veto its entry, requiring unanimous approval. Brussels officials say there are no technical grounds for Magyar to maintain the same veto, but much will depend on the politics — and the finesse around the issue of minorities in Ukraine.
The issue is extremely delicate as a significant number of Hungarians do not see Hungarian-speaking minorities in Ukraine as a separate group — they are not viewed as ethnic Hungarians or Ukrainians of Hungarian origin, but simply as Hungarians living on the other side of the border. Magyar has already indicated that he wants Kyiv to improve their conditions and plans to raise the issue with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when they meet in June. Much will hinge on that bilateral meeting.
While the two issues — the rights of Hungarian minorities in Ukraine and Kyiv’s accession — are not directly connected, in practice they are. For Magyar to agree to open the clusters and move the accession process forward, Zelenskyy will have to make a political gesture that allows the Hungarian leader to show he is protecting a people he also considers his own. Kyiv and Brussels should not underestimate this. The traumatic reshaping of borders after the First World War — and the resulting loss of territory and population following the Treaty of Trianon — remains a deeply painful subject for Hungarians.
The issue is also delicate for Zelenskyy, as his government insists that minorities are not mistreated in Ukraine. The fact that Magyar’s recriminations closely mirror Orbán’s makes it even more difficult, as Kyiv had previously rejected his accusations of discrimination over language as completely fabricated.
But there is a silver lining.
Unlike Orbán, who benefited from nationalist tensions, Magyar appears more open to finding a solution. For Zelenskyy, if he plays the politics right, he could see Ukraine make more progress on accession in a matter of weeks than it has in three years. Their bilateral meeting could pave the way for a political landing zone ahead of a European summit at the end of June, where Magyar will make his Brussels debut and Zelenskyy’s attendance is often customary.
So far, enlargement does not feature on the summit’s agenda, but as one Council official told me, President António Costa is reluctant to put items on it unless there is a deal to be made. In my view, there is a path to a compromise that could help heal wounds and benefit both Kyiv and Budapest. It is worth exploring without prejudice. |