Feast and famine: AI VC shattered records in Q1, but liquidity remains elusive as the IPO window stays narrow and valuation gaps widen. Our AI VC Trends report and VC Valuations and Returns Report tell both sides of the story.
The workarounds: VC is throwing everything at its liquidity problem. Secondaries have hit a record, yet growth is concentrated in a handful of names. SPACs are back, structurally reformed but still unproven. Dig into both trends in our latest Secondary Market Watch and our analyst note on SPACs.
Barometers: Natural resource funds stood out in our latest Barometers report, which provides nearly real-time estimates of private market performance. View it here.
Tell us your thoughts: The PE landscape in 2026 has no shortage of crosscurrents: Heavy assets are hot, software is not, and rates are drifting higher. Take two minutes to tell us how you're positioning in our two-minute Q2 2026 PE survey. |
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| A message from West Monroe |
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| When AI Doesn't Travel: The New Risk in Cross-Border M&A |
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AI is changing what makes cross-border M&A deals succeed—or fail. What works in one market may face regulatory barriers, data restrictions, vendor limitations, or workforce readiness challenges in another. As AI becomes more embedded in operations, customer experience, and decision-making, deal teams are forced to evaluate more than financials alone. This article explores how leading buyers are pressure-testing AI portability, governance, and operational readiness earlier in diligence to avoid integration surprises and protect value creation. It also examines how model architecture, licensing structures, and regional compliance requirements can influence scalability, integration complexity, and long-term operational control. Learn how AI regulation, model design, and workforce capability are reshaping the future of cross-border deal strategy.
Download the Guide |
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| An investor's guide to the AI ecosystem |
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There is a massive shift toward agentic infrastructure across the entire tech stack.
Anthropic's revenue and usage surged dramatically in Q1, putting them on pace to hit $30 billion for the year, with the number of large enterprise customers doubling. AMD also doubled its TAM forecast for the server chip market to $120 billion, driven by the growing demand for processing power as AI systems become more sophisticated and autonomous.
Enterprise adoption of agentic AI has clearly begun, catalyzed by the SaaS-pocalypse. This crisis forced an ecosystem-wide reset: Buyers are focusing on outcome-based SaaS models, vendors are retooling for agentic workflows, investors are reassessing economic moats, and sponsors are reevaluating incentives and strategic plans within portfolio companies.
To help investors navigate this transition and track $5.4 trillion in global enterprise IT and hyperscaler spending, we have developed a 209-node market map taxonomy. Spanning three decision trees, investment stack, TAM, and sector industry, every deployment node is defined with a comprehensive description and market leaders. This framework operates as a playbook to help strategy officers and portfolio managers identify infrastructure capital flows, M&A targets, and strategic partnerships.
Here are three ways you can use the taxonomy to navigate the new AI ecosystem:
1. Build strategic partnerships
High-fidelity intelligent digital labor requires highly efficient lower-level physical computing infrastructure. Investors can use the taxonomy to trace supply chain relationships from semiconductor suppliers to software orchestration workloads. This can help identify critical physical bottlenecks, like gigawatt-scale power, advanced liquid cooling, and next-gen GPU capacity, that gate operational milestones and go-to-market strategies.
2. Analyze competitive dynamics
Generative and agentic AI have challenged the value proposition of traditional software ecosystems. Within the enterprise, vendors delivering autonomous workflow replacements will command pricing power through three defining moats: outcome pricing, deep business logic, and proprietary data. Granular segmentation allows investors to identify which incumbents possess these attributes, which startups are disruptive, and which targets are accretive M&A candidates within each deployment end market.
3. Track capital flows
Capital flooding physical computing today will eventually drive widespread agentic adoption. As marginal intelligence costs approach zero, token consumption will expand exponentially as billions of agents automate workflows at limited additional cost. This will result in an explosion of innovation within the software layers, eventually driving the adoption of edge AI intelligent systems. Investors can track this sequence of capital flows. By monitoring where infrastructure spending peaks, investors can identify rotation opportunities higher up in the stack.
The current market turmoil in software is an opportunity to assess the entire AI ecosystem at its most granular level. The market will reward early investments and partnerships by those who use a taxonomy like this one to assess direct, indirect, and adjacent supplier, vendor, and competitive relationships. Market valuations will start to reward companies that outperform their stated agentic AI goals.
This taxonomy helps map this path forward, helping all stakeholders track progress. View the full map in our report The SaaS-Pocalypse Opportunity.
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Warm regards,
Rudy Torrijos
Director, Private Market Industry Research |
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| Defense dollars spark a record run for PE dealmakers |
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Aerospace and defense PE activity surged in Q1, with PitchBook estimating 143 deals totaling $11.3 billion, more than double the deal count from a year ago.
Defense led the way, posting 53 transactions, a 382% jump over Q1 2025, as rising US and European defense budgets and growing confidence in long-term government procurement pushed capital into the sector at a pace not seen before in PitchBook's dataset.
The war against Iran has validated two core PE investment theses. Defense electronics, covering electronic warfare, radar, guidance, and mission computing, proved decisive in the campaign. And the drawdown of PAC-3, THAAD, and SM-3 interceptor stockpiles created a durable replenishment cycle that sponsors can underwrite with confidence.
The fiscal year 2027 budget proposal, released April 3, included specific increases for missile defense, electronic warfare, and space-based ISR, giving investors the procurement visibility they had been waiting for. While actual deals take time to play out, this news only pours fuel onto some already-hot defense subcategories.
Exit activity kept pace with deal flow. Q1 2026 exit value reached an estimated $15.7 billion, the strongest quarter in PitchBook's dataset going back to 2017, driven by the York Space Systems IPO at $3.7 billion, the $2.2 billion sale of Precision Aviation Group to VSE Corp., and Shield AI's $2 billion acquisition of Aechelon Technology.
European defense is drawing attention in its own right. Germany's constitutional amendment unlocked an estimated $565 billion in new defense capacity, the UK committed to raising defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, and a five-way bidding contest for UK aerostructures maker Senior plc reflected how competitive the market for European assets has become.
PitchBook expects deal activity to remain strong through the rest of 2026, particularly in defense electronics, missile supply chain, and commercial aerospace parts, where fragmented markets and clear government demand signals continue to attract PE capital.
Read more in our Q1 Aerospace & Defense Report.
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System Reboot: A quantitative perspective on US PE
PE buyout deal activity appears to have stalled just as public markets started pricing in the potential impact of coding agents on the software-as-a-service universe.
The Morningstar US Software Application Index has shed a quarter of its value since January. But distressed assets should present an opportunity for buyout shops to find hidden gems that can be rehabilitated and adapted to the next era of computing. |
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These opportunities are beginning to surface in our take-private indicator, with software showing a materially higher likelihood of buyout transactions in the next 18 months than other industries.
We dig deep into software, semi-liquid credit, and the rise of buyout megafunds in the Q2 2026 Quantitative Perspectives report.
Download it here |
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Why SpaceX's Starship Needs a Big Splash Before Its $75 Billion IPO
The timing of SpaceX's Starship Flight 12 launch could not be more consequential.
This is the maiden flight of the V3 architecture, a near-complete redesign that triples payload capacity and lays the groundwork for everything from next-generation Starlink satellites to NASA's Artemis lunar missions.
With the company reportedly targeting a $75 billion raise at a valuation approaching $2 trillion, the outcome of this test lands roughly four to five weeks before a likely mid-to-late June IPO pricing.
We break down why this single flight carries outsized weight for the IPO narrative, where SpaceX’s valuation stands relative to trailing fundamentals, and what investors should watch as the launch window opens.
Download the report |
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