Flagship

Putin, Xi to discuss energy, Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin opens a visit to Beijing today that will focus on energy sales, cementing Xi Jinping’s status as a leader who holds court and whom fellow heads-of-state increasingly travel to see. The timing of the trip — days after Xi hosted US President Donald Trump — is coincidental, however, given Trump’s travels were rescheduled from March. It will also likely underscore the increasingly lopsided relationship between Russia and China: Core to the talks will be a gas pipeline long in the making, which Moscow hopes will be of renewed importance to Beijing given uncertainty in global energy supplies because of the Iran war. Also likely on the agenda: the Ukraine war, which Xi reportedly told Trump that Putin may regret.

Putin seeks projection of power

The Kremlin launched three days of nuclear drills, a show of force that comes with its war in Ukraine going badly. Kyiv has fought the Russian army to a standstill in recent months: Drones are killing Russian soldiers and disrupting logistics and oil infrastructure. Moscow’s recruitment is unable to keep up with losses. Geopolitically, the Kremlin is facing setbacks as well: Ukraine is edging closer to EU membership, now that Hungary’s pro-Russia former leader has gone and taken his veto with him. Whether or not Kyiv can militarily defeat Moscow, “they are showing to the world, to themselves, and to the Russians who care to know,” one historian told Foreign Policy, “that time is not necessarily on Russia’s side.”

Ebola outbreak grips central Africa

An Ebola outbreak in central Africa has killed at least 131 people. Washington placed travel restrictions on visitors from the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Uganda after the WHO declared a global health emergency. There are no treatments for this Ebola strain, and scientists are racing to trial new ones, Nature reported. Ebola periodically escapes animal reservoirs and causes human outbreaks in Africa; one in 2013-2016 killed at least 11,000 people. The virus spreads by fluid contact, often at funerals where mourners communally wash the dead; it is relatively unlikely to cause pandemics since it is not aerially transmitted, but the world is less prepared now for such a risk than it was pre-COVID, a WHO report found.

Philippines pledges Taiwan support

The Philippines president said his country would likely get involved in any conflict involving Taiwan, comments that could draw Beijing’s ire. The remarks come before he travels to Tokyo to discuss security cooperation; Japan’s own leader angered Beijing by saying that, if necessary, her country could help defend Taiwan, which China says is a renegade province. Though Beijing has emerged as Asia’s preeminent military power — a former CIA analyst said it was “hard to point to an area” where China wasn’t dominant — an attempt to take the island isn’t guaranteed success. A “failure of imagination led Russia to disaster in Ukraine. A similar failure in Beijing could lead China to disaster in Taiwan,” the Financial Times’ Gideon Rachman wrote.

Cuba warns US of ‘bloodbath’

Cuba’s president said that any US military action against his country would lead to a “bloodbath” for both countries. Miguel Díaz Canel’s comments come a day after Axios reported, citing US intelligence, that Havana had acquired hundreds of drones and discussed plans to use them against Washington’s military assets in the region. Though White House economic and diplomatic pressure has so far not led to the overthrow of the regime in Havana — Washington’s stated goal — some US officials are discouraging a military intervention. “Cuba is asking for help, and we are going to talk,” one White House official told Semafor’s DC politics team.

Inflation fears persist globally

The Iran war’s inflationary pressures were unlikely to abate, analysts warned, even as US President Donald Trump said “serious negotiations” were underway with Tehran. Ratings agency Moody’s chief economist warned that the Federal Reserve would be forced to consider rate hikes. Traders are roughly 50-50 on rates either staying flat or rising by year-end, which would pile pressure on incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Trump nominated him on the expectation of cuts. The Bank of England and European Central Bank have both warned that they may raise rates, while Brasília raised inflation forecasts, saying oil prices had increased 25% since its March forecast.

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Japan braces for cooling growth

Japan’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter, surpassing expectations, though analysts warned that the fallout of the Iran war could hamper future expansion. The strong results were driven by rising US-bound exports and sturdy domestic consumption, the latter thanks to a temporary cash handout program, Nikkei reported. Yet analysts predicted that annualized growth will cool in the second quarter to less than 1% as the country — which received around 90% of its oil imports from the Middle East before the start of the war — grapples with fuel shortages. Higher prices and slowing growth have sparked fears of stagflation in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Standard Chartered to slash jobs

Banking giant Standard Chartered will cut 15% of its workforce by 2030 as its use of AI increases. The UK-headquartered company, which has large offices in China, India, Malaysia, and Poland, said it was boosting automation, but would move some affected staff into new roles. Several other banking and tech firms have announced job cuts that they attributed to AI, but the job market is under other pressures too. The UK announced unexpectedly high unemployment and slow wage growth, which analysts attributed to the Iran war. Rising prices may push AI adoption: Britain’s health service proposed cutting recruitment and boosting AI use to avoid “financial ruin” as growing demands for care, rising inflation, and an aging society push up costs.

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