What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

The chips are indeed blue. The market scramble for AI stocks seems to know no bounds. Memory chipmaker Micron Technology briefly entered the $1 trillion club on Wall Street on Tuesday, while South Korea’s SK Hynix crossed that threshold on Wednesday.

Both companies’ shares are up about 10-fold over the past year amid frenzied demand for, and ongoing shortages of, memory chips.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why rising bond yields could start dragging on stocks soon.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Today's Market Minute

  • The deal Samsung Electronics struck with its union averts a massive strike and gives its memory chip workers eye-popping bonuses - but it also opens a Pandora's box for companies in South Korea, a country known for militant wage-bargaining.
  • Micron Technology briefly topped $1 trillion in market value for the first time on Tuesday, crowning a dizzying rally that has cemented the U.S.'s largest memory chipmaker as one of the standout winners of the ‌AI boom.
  • Elon Musk's SpaceX raised the Pentagon's Starlink connection costs fivefold to $25,000 per drone during the Iran war and the Pentagon ultimately agreed, according to a Reuters exclusive.
  • BP's repeated leadership misfires suggest its board is quickly becoming a liability, argues ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso. 
  • As investors sour on U.S. Treasuries, they're increasingly turning to top-tier U.S. corporate debt, writes ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever.
 

Out of the blue chips

Near-20% surges in both Micron and SK Hynix’s shares this week show the dash for chips is continuing unabated. With its latest milestone, SK Hynix joins fellow South Korean chip giant Samsung, which hit the $1 trillion mark earlier this month. Both companies’ shares were lifted again on Wednesday after a landmark deal on worker bonuses for Samsung workers.

That deal averts a potentially damaging labor strike, and some memory-chip workers will be in line for bonuses of over $400,000. Samsung will set aside a sizeable chunk of its chip division profits to meet the payouts. South Korea’s KOSPI index surged over 3% on Wednesday, led by Samsung and SK Hynix.

Back on Wall Street, the broader stock market optimism continued on Tuesday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record closing highs. Meantime, Goldman Sachs has upped its year-end forecast for the former to 8,000 from 7,600 - a rise of about 6% - on continued strength in corporate earnings.

U.S. stock futures climbed before the bell on Wednesday, while European shares edged up after the open.

On the macro front, the Conference Board’s index on U.S. consumer confidence eased this month by less than feared, marking a contrast with last week’s University of Michigan survey.

There was little new in the Iran standoff, though hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough persisted, even as Tehran described recent U.S. strikes as a “gross violation” of the two sides' ceasefire. Oil prices fell by around 3% early on Wednesday, unwinding some of Tuesday's 4% rise.

In Europe, rates markets were jarred after European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel indicated that the ECB should hike rates next month even if a U.S.-Iran peace plan is agreed. Schnabel told Reuters that the size of the energy shock meant “looking through” it was not an option.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

US bonds about to bite stocks

U.S. stocks and bond yields have been rising in tandem in recent weeks, with many investors attributing the move to the Iran war, inflation and an AI arms race. But some models now suggest higher borrowing costs are reaching the point where they start to drag on equities.

Calculations on so-called equity risk premia (ERP) - the excess returns promised by holding equities over those on "risk-free" government bonds - differ widely depending on inputs and methodologies.