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Hi,
There are two types of truth:
- Political truth
(An oxymoron perhaps?)
- Technical truth
Political truths are true because many other people think they are.
Technical truths are true for physical or technical reasons.
“You can position facts at two poles: political facts and technical facts. A political fact is true if enough other people believe it to be true; for example, who the president is or where the border of a country is. That's actually a psychological phenomenon. If you can install software to enough people's brains, you can change those truths. That is social consensus.
Then, on the other side, some things are purely technical. A technical fact is the result of an equation or the diameter of a virus under an electron microscope—the result of physical constants. What people think does not change technical truth. Physical facts are independent of any human being. An alien would come to the same conclusions.”
– From The Anthology of Balaji by Eric Jorgenson
Stock market prices and valuations are political truths. Some stocks, some of the time, can trade at outlandish multiples.
For example, take Zoom Video Communications (ZM):
- ZM in October 2020
Market cap > $150 billion
Price to sales ratio > 120
- ZM in June 2026
Market cap = $25 billion
Price to sales ratio ~ 5
Zoom's nosebleed valuation in 2020 was a political truth; it was due to market hype, not underlying business fundamentals.
Dividends, on the other hand are largely technical truths.
Dividends are either paid or not paid. There’s no ambiguity.
You can’t have "adjusted dividends" or "dividends before depreciation" or anything of that sort. A company either pays a specific dividend amount, or it doesn’t.
What other people (outside of those responsible for setting dividend policy within the company) think about the dividend does not matter. What other investors feel about the dividend does not determine whether its paid.
And what the stock market thinks about the share price of the company doesn’t (or rather shouldn’t) impact the payment of the dividend.
Dividend payments come from the cash flows a company generates. They are paid out to shareholders.
Dividends fall largely on the side of technical truth because they are actual cash payments from business profits.
This is in direct contrast to stock market prices, which are derived from consensus perception of a business’ future prospects. Stock prices reflect the level of 'market hype' (or lack thereof) surrounding a business.
These are very different things.
Would you rather your financial freedom and retirement portfolio be based largely on the perception of others, or on the technical truth of the dividends paid by a company?
For those investing for income, the answer is to trust dividends, not market hype.
It’s not as exciting – but there’s less worry when you base your investments on technical truth rather than political truth.
Once you put your trust in dividends rather than political truths, the next questions become which dividend stocks should I choose to build my dividend growth portfolio?
And that's where the Sure Analysis Research Database (SARD) shows its power.
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Founder, Sure Dividend
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