What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

A torrent of new information hit markets on Tuesday, with a mostly positive tilt for both stocks and bonds.

A surprisingly large decline in U.S. consumer price inflation for June soothed interest rate hike nerves, with the headline drop clearly tracking big swings in energy prices.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on one way that Europe is looking to rein in China's humming export engine.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast, where we discuss June inflation, corporate earnings and more.

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Today's Market Minute

  • Iran is now signaling it could play its most dangerous card yet: using Yemen's Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting two of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk.
  • Wall Street bank earnings powered ahead in the second quarter with a strong lift from fees for M&A advisory and surging trading revenue, but some banks warned about risks ahead to the economy and markets.
  • ASML, the world's biggest supplier of computer ‌chip manufacturing equipment, raised its 2026 financial forecasts on Wednesday and will expand capacity after AI demand drove better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.
  • AI bulls and bears alike are doubling down on their convictions even as AI uncertainty rises, potentially setting the stage for a more volatile second half of the year, writes ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever.
  • The critical minerals race is a big opportunity for developing countries with access to the right metals - but success or failure depends on many economic, technical and institutional factors, explains ROI Metals Columnist Andy Home.
 

Melting core

The drop in headline U.S. inflation may well be reversed in July given the resumption of hostilities in the Gulf, but the first drop in monthly core CPI in more than six years - a marginal fall of 0.02% - takes the annual core inflation rate down to just 2.6%.

Futures have wiped out almost all chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month as a result, and Treasury yields fell back sharply.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave little away in his congressional testimony on Monday but restated the Fed's determination to get inflation back to its 2% target.

The corporate earnings season also kicked off in earnest, with the big banks all doing well on a mix of volatile market trading and big fee paydays from a wave of IPOs. Goldman Sachs' stock was the pick of the bunch as it surged 9%.

It was more mixed in the tech world. IBM plunged 25% in its biggest one-day drop on record after a big miss and an admission that it had flubbed the switch of business trends from software services to AI data centre buildouts.

It also said that AI spending was eating into customers' software budgets. That caught many software service stock prices in the slipstream of IBM's own slide.

But Europe's ASML reported blockbuster results on Wednesday, and much like TSMC's sales update earlier this week, the chip manufacturer highlighted continued chip sector demand as it upped its annual revenue forecasts yet again.

World oil prices continued to bubble back up above $85 a barrel, meantime, as U.S.-Iran hostilities persisted even as President Trump U-turned on plans for a 20% toll on Hormuz shipping. A resumption of the blockade on Iran's ships goes into effect today.

Elsewhere, China's second-quarter GDP growth slowed to a below-forecast 4.3%, although June industrial and retail updates were above estimates. The yuan firmed. Asia stocks are up more broadly, as are U.S. stock futures ahead of Wednesday's bell.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

China's latest 'shock', German auto pain and the euro/yuan pressure cooker

China's export engine is on track to post another trillion-dollar-plus trade surplus this year, shrugging off tariff tensions and an energy squeeze, while turning a spotlight on a still undervalued yuan.

While attention remains fixed on the U.S., the world's second-biggest economy is expanding rapidly, and its global impact is proving just as pervasive as anything emanating from Washington.