When I interviewed Emmanuel Macron two years ago, he was in characteristically combative form. Even so, Sophie Pedder, The Economist’s Paris bureau chief, and I were both struck by how one subject stirred him up. Framed by the gilt of the Elysée’s Salon Doré, France’s president leant forward and issued a stern warning about Europe’s populist nationalists. We must be “bold enough not to think that their rise is inevitable” he told us. “The spirit of defeat means two things: you get used to it and you stop fighting.” Bien dit. 

Today Mr Macron’s rallying cry to protect France from a nationalist takeover feels more urgent than ever. The country will elect a new president next spring. An embezzlement conviction had looked likely to stop Marine Le Pen, leader of the populist-right National Rally (RN), from standing. But last week, after a court of appeal enabled her to run, she announced her bid. Clearly, no “spirit of defeat” haunts the Le Pen family, which has put forward a candidate in almost every French presidential election for over half a century—unsuccessfully every time. Ms Le Pen believes that 2027 might be the year their persistence is finally rewarded and she may well be right. 

In tomorrow’s Insider show, we’ll be asking why that would matter far beyond France’s borders. Sophie is coming from Paris to take part in the discussion in London. And Adam Roberts will valiantly make the trek over from his desk on the other side of the office, where he presides over our foreign coverage. 

We’ll start by examining France’s place in the world. I’ll be asking my colleagues why Economist readers should care about who next takes up residence in the Elysée. I expect Adam to mention the importance of France’s ability to project hard power (it’s the only nuclear-armed EU member state) and Sophie’s case to rest on the unusual sway of the French presidency. France has also been an important ally of Ukraine. Mr Macron has been leading the work on creating a coalition of the willing, a task force planning the country’s post-war security. Ms Le Pen, by contrast, has a history of looking kindly on Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. Would a Le Pen presidency spell disaster for Ukraine? And how would it shape France’s—and Europe’s—relationship with America? 

In the second part of tomorrow’s discussion I want to focus on Europe and how it will cope if France—a pillar of the EU project—were to fall into the hands of a eurosceptic party like the RN. What is its appeal for French voters? Sophie has travelled to many areas where RN is doing well so I’ll be leaning on her insights to understand what’s drawing people to the party. If the first round of voting were held on Sunday, polls indicate, Ms Le Pen would enjoy a crushing lead and go on to triumph in every scenario in the second round held two weeks later. To close, I’ll be asking Adam and Sophie what they expect when voters actually head to the ballot box next spring. And I’m keen to see how our predictions compare with our subscribers’. Please vote in this week’s poll to tell us your forecasts for next year’s French presidential election.

The show will be available to watch from 6pm London time (1pm in New York) on Thursday. As ever, we’ll be answering some of your questions. Please send them to us via the Q&A feature on the episode page. And if you have feedback or suggestions for future episodes, please write to us at insider@economist.com.