Washington, DC

1. Iran exit dilemma
2. Trump’s Bibi problem
3. Congress’ fall forecast
4. Miller stays in
5. Fed independence tested
6. Establishment vs. left
7. Carlson 2028 rumors

PDB: Democrats propose water security bill after cyberattacks

Trump to swear in Blanche, attend tele-rallies … Taiwan to throttle internet during simulated Chinese attack … Brent crude ▲ 1% on Hormuz fears

Trump still searching for way out of Iran

President Donald Trump is struggling to find a way out of the conflict with Iran, as voters lose patience and weapons stockpiles dwindle. The path forward remains unclear, even as Trump has privately weighed dropping his long-held requirement for a nuclear deal. Washington is unlikely to accept Iran’s latest list of demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And in an interview with Axios, Trump suggested he was waiting for Iran to buckle under economic pressure rather than pressing for a deal, saying: “We are low-keying it.” While Trump has publicly downplayed reports of a weapons shortage, the issue is on his mind. Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg recently asked defense companies to “accelerate” munitions production, Bloomberg reported, a move Semafor has learned came days after Trump called Feinberg to discuss the issue. Still, officials acknowledge there’s no quick solution. “It’s going to take years,” one US official said.

— Shelby Talcott

Trump, Netanyahu grow further apart

The White House may be back to the drawing board on a peace settlement in Gaza, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the 15-point plan Trump touted last month. Netanyahu, staring down a difficult reelection battle, said at a cabinet meeting yesterday that Israel would only withdraw after the “genuine disarmament” of Hamas. “As long as I am prime minister, a Palestinian state will not be established,” he also said; the Trump-backed plan calls for a path to “Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” Netanyahu’s remarks breaking with Trump add to existing tensions between the US and Israel, as the two countries disagree over how to end the Iran war. A Board of Peace representative told Israel’s Channel 12 that the Gaza plan is the only way to “guarantee” there won’t be a repeat of Oct. 7, noting Netanyahu’s comments that discussions are continuing.

GOP punts Trump’s difficult agenda to fall

Senate Republicans put off the most challenging part of Trump’s agenda until mid-September — just ahead of the midterms, when legislating becomes increasingly difficult. Nevertheless, that’s when Senate Majority Leader John Thune will try to consider bipartisan bills on cryptocurrency regulation and college sports, and possibly take the next step in a party-line spending bill that could include voter ID language. None of that will be easy, as Democrats press for stricter presidential ethics protections in the crypto bill, a significant number of Republicans try to amend the college sports legislation, and Thune struggles to muster the 50 votes to pass a budget resolution, which will be necessary if Republicans want to approve a third party-line spending bill this Congress. Further complicating the fall schedule, the House still must sign off on the Senate’s bill funding the government through Dec. 11.

— Burgess Everett

Max Miller isn’t going anywhere

Embattled Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, is continuing his reelection bid despite mounting pressure over domestic abuse allegations, as the deadline for him to be replaced on the ballot expires today. Some Republicans have publicly called for him to resign or drop out of the race, including Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., who said Sunday on NBC that the allegations were “deeply troubling.” Miller has insisted he’s not leaving; The Wall Street Journal reported he plans to loan his campaign $1 million. Top House Republican leaders have signaled they’ll withhold judgment until the House Ethics Committee wraps up its own investigation, which began last week. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping Miller’s controversies will make the GOP-leaning seat competitive for them in the general election. Some recent polling shows Democratic challenger Brian Poindexter leading Miller.

— Nicholas Wu

Trump takes his second swing at Cook

The Supreme Court left the door open in June for Trump to relitigate his case against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Now, his administration is choosing to walk through it. In a letter reported first by ABC News, White House deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino gave Cook three weeks to respond to allegations of mortgage fraud, writing that the justices had ruled Cook was “entitled to notice … and an opportunity to respond.” Cook’s lawyers say those allegations “are as baseless now as they were a year ago.” But they’ve never been litigated — and the developments are already stoking fears of diminishing Fed independence as the central bank weighs whether to raise interest rates at its next meeting. All eyes are on newly installed Attorney General Todd Blanche and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and how they approach the latest assault.

— Eleanor Mueller

Democrats try to land ‘vulnerability’ attack

As Minnesota voters prepare to head to the polls tomorrow, Rep. Angie Craig is trying a familiar tactic in her Senate Democratic primary battle against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. She’s warning that her more progressive rival is far more vulnerable to Republican attacks, telling voters that Republicans will try to make the November election about fraud cases in the state if Flanagan wins, Semafor’s David Weigel reports. “The lieutenant governor has a unique vulnerability that I certainly don’t have,” Craig said at a recent candidate forum. The congresswoman is hardly the first swing-state Democrat to urge primary voters to reject left-wing candidates by cautioning that Republicans would find a progressive easier to beat. But the challenge, as party leaders learned in Michigan and may soon learn in Wisconsin, is convincing liberals that the Republican attacks they find ludicrous or unfair might work on other voters.

Could Tucker Carlson run in 2028?

Right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson laid out a 10-point manifesto for the future of America last week, spurring fresh speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run. Carlson’s 98-minute-long stream — paired with a highly publicized meeting with former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and freshly primaried Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., plus overtures from ex-counterterrorism aide Joe Kent about a third-party bid — kicked off widespread media coverage and buzz about his electoral aspirations. Despite Carlson’s public flirtations, two people who speak regularly with him told Semafor’s Max Tani that he hasn’t spoken seriously about running, and they haven’t detected a real shift in his actions that would suggest he’s gearing up to run. Business is good for Carlson at the moment, too: His podcast is one of the biggest nationwide, and his nicotine pouch joint venture is growing rapidly. (Carlson didn’t return a request for comment.)

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Vice President JD Vance called Abdul El-Sayed “crazy” in an interview with Fox News after the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee mocked Vance as “Peter Thiel’s boy.”

What the Right isn’t reading: A federal judge blocked the Trump administration’s efforts to restructure billions in federal funding to fight homelessness.

Beltway Newsletters

Playbook: A person close to Tucker Carlson said of the 2028 speculation: “He won’t run against JD Vance. He will very likely run if Trump endorses Rubio.”

Axios: Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has written to the CEOs of leading AI firms, urging them to pause AI development and saying senators will intervene if they fail to take action.

White House

• White House staff secretary Will Scharf will get an additional title next month: White House counsel.
• President Trump endorsed Michael Alfonso, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy’s son-in-law, in a crowded Wisconsin House primary.
• The New York Times profiles an accused money-launderer who bought some $100 million of the Trump family’s cryptocurrency.

Congress

• Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., are expected to announce a bill to fund cyber defenses for local water systems after a spate of Iran-linked cyberattacks.
• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., posted about freezing her eggs.
• Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, said she is undergoing rehab after being injured in a car crash.

Outside the Beltway

• Hunter Biden said that former President Joe Biden’s cancer has spread.
• The Education Department froze dozens of investigations into alleged sexual or racial harassment on school campuses. — WaPo