Washington, DC

1. Trade tensions ramp up
2. AI framework pressure
3. GOP convention absences
4. Congress’ unfinished business
5. Pappas vs. Sununu
6. Trump underwater in Iowa
7. Rubio’s Latin America bet

PDB: SCOTUS deals blow to Republicans

Trump attends MAGA Inc. meeting in Texas … Court hears oral arguments in mifepristone case … Israel hits back at UK over multi-country sanctions on West Bank settlements

Trump moves to ban Canadian imports

The Trump administration is moving to ban Canadian imports like alcohol, whey, and motorcycles in the latest escalation of the countries’ trade war. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has spoken with Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc in recent days, a senior administration official told reporters Tuesday, and the countries will attempt to negotiate “an alternative pathway” before the bans take effect at the end of the month. “It’s really just Canada and China who thought, ‘I’m not going to do tariffs, I’m going to start banning stuff,’” the official said. “They set this precedent.” The US is also exempting Canadian imports like road salt and paper goods from its existing tariffs, swapping in other goods in order “to really minimize the impact on supply chains here,” the official said. The news came after President Donald Trump said he would box Canadian imports out of the federal government’s purchasing process.

— Eleanor Mueller

Left-right coalition seeks release of AI framework

More than two dozen organizations from both the left and right are urging the White House to publicly release its voluntary AI security framework, per a letter shared first with Semafor. “The government has a fundamental responsibility to share the parameters of the process for reviewing frontier AI models prior to wider deployment,” reads the letter, led by Americans for Responsible Innovation and the Center for Democracy and Technology. The White House previewed the long-awaited framework last month with a select group of tech companies. Pressure to release it has increased ever since, especially following OpenAI’s attack on AI model repository Hugging Face and the release of OpenAI’s latest model, Astra. Earlier this month, nonprofit Protect Democracy sued the Trump administration to enforce a Freedom of Information Act request on the framework — part of Trump’s June order on AI — and the legal authority behind it.

— Ashley Gold

Notable GOP midterm convention absences

Republicans are in Dallas this week for their midterm convention, an event that will be partially characterized by absences. A handful of Republicans in difficult races will skip the event, like Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. And while many of the party’s top leaders will speak — Trump will take the stage both days — at least one prominent member won’t. Senate Majority Leader John Thune will attend the convention but is not scheduled to speak. A person familiar with his thinking said he “wanted to be sure candidates and others who aren’t always afforded a national platform get the chance to speak first.” Still, other Republicans facing tough midterm battles are embracing the event: Scheduled speakers include Reps. Mike Lawler of New York and Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania, Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio, and GOP candidates challenging Democratic House incumbents like Derek Merrin and Laurie Buckhout.

— Nicholas Wu and Burgess Everett

House calendar crunch sees items punted

The House’s abbreviated schedule will punt a host of legislative items to the post-election period. House lawmakers are only set to be in town for one more week before the midterms; the Senate is scheduled to be in town for another three weeks. This means that time-sensitive legislation like the annual defense policy bill, the reauthorization of lapsed warrantless surveillance programs, and the farm bill will be left for later. Action on college sports-related legislation and Russia sanctions will also likely be delayed. Some House Republicans expect a last-ditch effort to pass another filibuster-circumventing budget bill if they lose the House, though it’s not clear whether there’s an appetite for that much post-election legislative work. “It all depends on what the election outcome is and what people’s desires are to be here and work their way through,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D.

— Nicholas Wu and Burgess Everett

New Hampshire gets marquee Senate race

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas will face former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu after Pappas easily defeated progressive Karishma Manzur in the Democratic primary and Sununu crushed former GOP Sen. Scott Brown. Now, the general election looms and polls show the race is a little too close for comfort for Democrats in a state where they haven’t lost a Senate race since 2010. “Chris Pappas is in a tighter race than most of the political class recognize,” Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., told Semafor. If Democrats lose New Hampshire’s Senate seat, they have to win five more seats elsewhere in addition to defending their existing territory. They also can’t afford to drop a House seat in the race to fill Pappas’ seat: Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, narrowly defeated Maura Sullivan for the Democratic nomination in the first district.

— Burgess Everett

Dem Turek leads in Iowa Senate race

Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek narrowly leads his Republican opponent, Rep. Ashley Hinson, in Iowa’s crucial Senate race, according to internal polling from the Democrat’s campaign first shared with Semafor. Turek is garnering 46% of the vote to Hinson’s 42%, while Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn is getting 6%, and 6% of voters are undecided, according to the survey from Global Strategy Group conducted for Turek’s campaign. Those are notable numbers for Turek in a state dominated by the GOP for the past decade; Turek has an edge among independent voters and a positive favorability rating compared to Hinson, who is viewed more negatively. Another warning sign for the GOP: Trump is nine points underwater in Iowa, a state he’s won three times — including by 13 points in 2024. Most strategists see the race as a toss-up, though Hinson is narrowly leading recent polls.

— Burgess Everett

Rubio pushes cooperation on cartels

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is betting he can advance the fight against narcoterrorism in Latin America after a string of right-wing victories in the region. During his trip this week, Rubio will sit down with the new government in Colombia, whose president focused on countering narcoterrorists during his campaign; meet with Ecuador’s president, who has assisted US military operations against drug networks; and meet with the new government in Peru. Rubio will also discuss US support for the response to last month’s earthquake in Colombia, as well as the prospect of “deeper commercial relationships” with the region, a State Department spokesperson said. Rubio’s trip has one glaring hole: He won’t be visiting Venezuela. “We’ll get there eventually,” he told reporters, describing this visit as “a condensed week” intentionally focused on deepening relationships with three Western Hemisphere countries.

— Shelby Talcott

Blindspot: Data centers and climate change

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Democrats aren’t talking much about climate change on the campaign trail ahead of the midterms, the Daily Caller reported.

What the Right isn’t reading: Nearly seven in 10 voters oppose the construction of AI data centers where they live, according to a recent NBC News poll.

On Wednesday, September 16, Rep. Kevin Kiley, I-Calif., will join us for the Youth Wellbeing Forum: Building Resilient Generations. As young people are challenged by rising rates of loneliness, anxiety, and depression, we are bringing together experts across technology, healthcare, and policy to examine solutions that can build lasting resilience. Semafor editors will sit down with Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, D-Ore.; Jaymes Black, CEO, The Trevor Project; Nicole Hockley, Co-Founder & CEO, Sandy Hook Promise; and Dr. Jon Kole, Medical Director and Senior Director of Psychiatry, Headspace, to explore how to build lasting resilience for the next generation.

Washington, DC | September 16 | Request Invite

White House

• President Trump attributed the state election win of Germany’s far-right AfD party to the country’s immigration rules.
• Trump gifted $45,000 each to his assistant Natalie Harp and two other aides, seemingly violating a federal law that prohibits supplementing the salaries of federal employees with money from outside sources. — WaPo

Outside the Beltway

• The Democratic chair of the Summit County Board of Elections in Ohio writes today that it’s far too late to implement the new US Postal Service rule for mail-in ballots ahead of the midterms. In an article for the NYU Law Democracy Project shared first with Semafor, William Rich also dismisses the rule as an “unconstitutional federal executive-branch preemption of state laws.”
• Hurricane Lowell hit Hawaii’s western islands, causing widespread damage and power outages.