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Welcome to Cited, Carbon Brief's guide to new climate research

Robert McSweeney

Senior science editor

● New science on extreme heat, food production and Africa.

● A UN Environment Programme report warned of temperature ‘overshoot’.

● August was the joint-warmest month ever recorded globally.

● Carbon Brief looks at the ‘catastrophic’ impact of the 1877-78 El Niño.

In the news

OVERSHOOT OUTLOOK: A report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warned that global warming is certain to breach the Paris 1.5C limit and stressed the importance of limiting “overshoot” and eventually bringing global temperatures back down, reported the New York Times. The report stated that “even temporary exceedance of 1.5C will leave irreversible losses”, noted Euractiv. The outlet quoted UNEP director Inger Andersen, who reiterated that the 1.5C limit “is still the goal…but now, we need to approach it differently – from above”. Andersen said the path outlined in the report implied “rapid and deep cuts” to emissions and pursuing “net-negative emissions”, the outlet added.

REPORT ROW: There is “growing unease” with how Climate Action Network-International (CAN-International), the world’s “most influential” coalition of climate NGOs, is navigating a rift between governments involving the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), reported Climate Home News. Some climate activists are “increasingly disappointed by CAN’s silence” in a standoff over whether the IPCC’s forthcoming assessment report should be finished in time to inform the next UN global stocktake, the outlet said. The pushback has come from China, Kenya, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia, it added. The "unprecedented stand-off” will come to a head at an IPCC meeting in Addis Ababa in October, wrote Financial Times business columnist Pilita Clark.

ASSESSMENT AMENDMENT: The Trump administration is seeking to revise the fifth US national climate assessment, published in 2023, to “recast worst-case climate scenarios as implausible”, reported the Los Angeles Times. In a notice of a "proposed amendment”, the US Global Change Research Program said it “would clarify the interpretation and federal use” of scenarios of very high emissions, such as RCP8.5. The authors of the report were not consulted, noted the newspaper. Writing on the Climate Brink substack, climate scientist Prof Andrew Dessler outlined why removing RCP8.5 from the assessment “would be a serious mistake”. In other news, the next US “Arctic report card” will go ahead with support from the American Geophysical Union following the loss of government funding.

Research picks

■ Extreme heat

  • In southern Europe, heat-related mortality events of the scale seen in 2022 are, on average, 26 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate | Nature Health

  • More than one-quarter of emergency department visits for heat-related illness between April and October in the US over 2018-25 are attributable to climate change | Climatic Change

  • Hot summers with individual heatwaves in late summer and early autumn “might pose the largest risk” for permafrost warming and thawing in the Swiss Alps | Environmental Research: Climate

    Africa

    • Rainfall variability can "reduce average economic wellbeing and worsen inequality" among livestock herders in southern Africa's rangelands | Nature Sustainability

    • A review of climate attribution studies in east Africa over 2013-24 found that “more than half…detect a clear anthropogenic [human-caused] influence” | WIREs Climate Change

    • Projections of both climate-driven increases and decreases in reservoir inflow at basins across Africa highlight “heightened vulnerability, as well as contrasting opportunities” for hydropower | PLOS Climate

    Food production

    • Extreme rainfall may represent an "underappreciated risk" for...

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