October 3, 2026

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The Big Picture: One Month Out

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President Trump was elected in 2024, in large measure, with a mandate to bring down prices. But that hasn’t happened. Instead, Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, and voters are blaming him for costs that have continued to rise since he took office this second time around.

As a result, Republicans are likely to pay the price at the ballot box next month. One month out from Election Day, the electoral landscape has shifted even more so in Democrats’ direction.

They are favored to win the House, albeit with a fairly narrow majority. The Cook Political Report forecasts a five-to-15-seat net gain for Democrats at this point. That would give them in the range of 220 to 230 seats come January. (218 is needed for a majority.)

The Senate has shifted more dramatically over the last several months. Six seats have moved more in Democrats’ direction since June in comparing Cook’s ratings from then to now. When the cycle first started, the Senate was a longshot for Democrats. Now, it's within reach.

And that's largely because of the national mood, which is usually the case in midterms. Presidential job approval ratings and the generic congressional ballot are pretty good indicators of the direction things are headed in midterms. And on both measures, Democrats have the edge.

Trump has just a 37% approval rating, according to an average of the polls. That's tied for the lowest pre-midterm approval in the last half century. The only other president to be that low in that time is George W. Bush in 2006. Back then, Iraq was spiraling into civil war, and Republicans lost both the House and Senate.

As it is, history is unkind to the president’s party in midterm elections. They usually lose about two dozen seats in the House and four in the Senate. It’s even worse for the party in power when the president’s approval rating is below 50% as Trump’s is now.

But this is not 2006. Redistricting has helped insulate Republicans, there are fewer competitive to potentially competitive seats, most of the ones that are competitive ones are in Trump-won districts, Republicans have a campaign spending advantage, and the Democratic Party is unpopular.

But the headwinds the GOP is facing are real, and the party leading in polling has gone on to make gains in the midterm in each of the last seven midterm elections.

— Domenico Montanaro, NPR’s senior political editor/correspondent

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ICYMI: Top Stories

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New SCOTUS term: The U.S. Supreme Court formally opens a new term on Monday, and NPR's Nina Totenberg previews some of the big test cases on religion, bans on semi-automatic weapons, climate change and immigration.

Spotlight on Maine voters: Maine’s Senate race is a potentially pivotal one for determining which party will control the chamber. NPR’s Luke Garrett talks to voters in Aroostook County, Maine, the shared birthplace of both candidates vying for the seat. What’s on voters’ minds? Heating oil, gas and Canadian tariffs.

FBI hack: The FBI says it's "aggressively" investigating a massive data breach of sensitive FBI employment information, including whether the hackers got into third-party software or its internal systems. The bureau is vowing to go after the hackers it believes are responsible.

Census changes: How does the census give your state power – and what does President Trump want to change? He didn’t alter the census during his first term, but he's trying again ahead of 2030. NPR breaks it down – as a comic.

Absentee voting changes: The Pentagon made last-minute changes to forms that many overseas U.S. citizens use for absentee voting. Among the changes is the removal of a checkbox for an overseas U.S. citizen to identify as having "never lived in the United States." It’s a group of U.S. citizens Republicans have been pushing to block from voting since 2024.

Trump’s anti-communist message: President Trump keeps labeling Democrats as “communists,” but he keeps undercutting his own message. NPR White House correspondent Danielle Kurtzleben explains.

— Heidi Glenn, NPR Politics & Policy Desk digital editor

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The Shot: Latino Swing Voters in Allentown

Lianne Milton for NPR

Both parties are courting the Latino swing vote in Allentown, Pa. – a majority-Latino city, predominantly Puerto Rican and Dominican.

The demographic represents a critical voting bloc in both parties' quest to control the House of Representatives. Republicans made gains with Latino voters last cycle, but concerns about the economy and frustration over the administration’s immigration enforcement efforts are eroding that support.

Stephanie Valencia, co-founder of Equis Research, a Latino polling organization, tells NPR that according to polling, a third of Latinos don't see themselves as part of either political party.

"They're voting every single election cycle based on what's motivating their anxieties, how they're feeling about their own personal economic situation," she said. "Both parties have to contend with that and both parties have to fight for their votes."

Barbara Sprunt has this dispatch from Allentown, Pa.

— Heidi Glenn, NPR Politics & Policy Desk digital editor

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