The bull market turns four today but is it time to celebrate? Perhaps not just yet ahead of a week that has the capacity to extend or stall that impressive run.

Fortunately, the most likely party pooper won’t be ruining the celebrations today. The bond market, which has kept stocks in check, is closed for Columbus Day. Oil prices were rising, though, after fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia. That’s enough to keep stocks muted even without Treasury yields moving.

Inflation is another risk. Consumer price index and producer price index data this week will play a key role in informing the Federal Reserve’s October interest-rate decision.

But earnings season is as much an opportunity as a threat. The big banks will kick things off Tuesday, while reports from ASML and Taiwan Semi later in the week will be important for the AI trade.

China is already threatening to spoil the party. Micron and other memory stocks were under pressure Monday after CXMT made significant progress in developing a new chip.

It’s worth briefly reflecting on the enormity of the S&P 500’s bull run, which is entering its 1,001st trading day, and the near-$40 trillion in market value added. But only briefly, it’s time to lock in and prepare for an action-packed week ahead.

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