By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan

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In today's edition:

→ The summer's other will-he-or-won't-he rumors get settled.

→ MPs work in plenty of safe spaces. What about the space between?

→ The stuff politicians force the government to tell them.

SUMMIT SEASON — The 2024 Global Progress Action Summit is scheduled for Saturday. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND and Conservative bugaboo MARK CARNEY will both attend.

The annual confab of progressive voices co-hosted by Canada 2020 and the Center for American Progress (CAP) will fill a room in Montreal with leading voices from the center-left.

— Other headliners: Former New Zealand PM JACINDA ARDERN; Nobel-winner MARIA RESSA; PAUL OVENDEN, director of political strategy for U.K. PM KEIR STARMER; TONJE BRENNA, deputy leader of the Norwegian Labor Party.

Don't expect prominent American Democrats onstage. They're fewer than 50 days from a certain set of November elections. But PATRICK GASPARD, CAP's president and CEO, will bring the U.S. perspective — including conversations about the hyper-controversial Project 2025 right-wing blueprint for America.

— Also on the agenda: A stock-take on what worked for progressives, and what didn't, where they fought against authoritarians over the past year.

— Flashback: Catch up with POLITICO's reporting on last year's summit.

A message from UnSmoke Canada:

The best option is always to quit nicotine and tobacco use altogether, but smokers who choose not to quit should also be aware that alternatives exist. These alternatives still contain nicotine and are addictive. But, for those adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke, smoke-free alternatives provide an option that does not involve combustion - or "burning" - like smoking a cigarette does. Legislation can change how smoke-free products are regulated.

SHUFFLE WATCH — Finally, the worst-kept secret is out. PABLO RODRIGUEZ is quitting JUSTIN TRUDEAU's Cabinet to make a leadership run for Quebec's Liberal Party.

You know what that means: a word that rhymes with kerfuffle.

An hour after CBC/Radio-Canada broke the Rodriguez news Wednesday, Playbook's texts lit up with the what's-next of it all. A Cabinet shuffle of some sort draws nearer.

— Unfinished business: Cabinet committee membership has not been updated online since January. Ever since SEAMUS O'REGAN left the front bench, the outdated roster has kinda hung in the air.

O'Regan sat on four committees (including Treasury Board), chaired an informal working group on regulatory efficiency for clean growth, and attended another working group. (For his part, Rodriguez sits on five committees.)

That's a bunch of seats to fill. Back in August, we asked the Privy Council Office when the page would get a refresh.

PCO's response promised an update "in due course," boilerplate Ottawa-speak for "you'll find out when you find out." A reveal of some size may come soon.

— The when of it all: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is scheduled to be in New York City from Sunday until Wednesday, where he'll attend the Summit of the Future and take part in the United Nations General Assembly.

MPs will also vote on the fall sitting's first high-stakes confidence motion on Wednesday. (The Bloc Québécois has vowed to vote against the Conservative motion amid a limited appetite for an election in Quebec.)

— How big a shuffle? It's an eternal question.

Summertime goss mostly missed the mark. O'Regan's departure, which prompted the smallest possible reordering in July, had little to do with the punditry consensus that a shakeup at Rideau Hall was in the offing.

Back then, the rumors swirled around the dueling futures of CHRYSTIA FREELAND and MARK CARNEY. Freeland stayed put and Carney tip-toed into the fold when he accepted an economic advisory role with the Liberal Party.

All we got was a one-for-one swap, which could also be the story next week.

— What we know: Rodriguez is a Quebecer, which means another backbencher or parlsec in the province will likely get a promotion. He's also the Quebec lieutenant — a key interlocutor for the PM in a key province. The PM will need another.

Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS had this to say about the party's bench strength: "There's a lot of other MPs and ministers that stay behind and will keep fighting for the interests of Quebecers and Canadians."

— Up next: Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE, another Quebecer, is taking parental leave in November. When Government House Leader KARINA GOULD took time away from Cabinet for the same reason, Trudeau tapped STEVEN MACKINNON to fill in on an interim basis. That could be a later-on problem for the Prime Minister's Office.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU starts the day in the National Capital Region before traveling to Montreal. His itinerary lists no scheduled public events.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend question period.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak to reporters in West Block at 2 p.m. before heading into question period.

— Playbook hasn't seen itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET or Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY.

— New Brunswick Premier BLAINE HIGGS will reportedly visit the lieutenant governor today. Next up: a provincial election.

— The Hogue Commission will hear testimony from the Green Party's JON IRWIN and ROBIN MARTY, the Bloc Québécois' MATHIEU DESQUILBET, and the NDP's LUCY WATSON.

A message from UnSmoke Canada:

MPS ASK QUESTIONS — The return to Parliament brought a flood of government responses with it to written questions MPs submitted in the House.

— Look to the sky: Conservative MP LARRY MAGUIRE asked if Transport Canada’s director of aviation safety policy and intelligence PATRICK JUNEAU met with any U.S. officials to talk about UFOs (now known as UAPs, as in unidentified aerial phenomena).

Answer from Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ: No.

Maguire also wanted to know what kind of checklist the Canadian Armed Forces and NORAD use to assess what constitutes a threat.

Answer from Parliamentary Secretary of National Defence MARIE-FRANCE LALONDE: classified.

— Close watch: Maguire asked if NORAD intercepted anything since the high-profile Chinese balloon incident in early 2023.

Lalonde said NORAD used aircraft to “inspect several airborne objects” since then, “all of which were correlated to hobby balloons.” The most recent was in February this year over the state of Utah, but the binational command has not “intercepted” any other “airborne objects” since February 2023.

— Moving expenses: Conservative defense critic JAMES BEZAN wanted to know how much it cost the Department of National Defence to move its employees out of offices at 400 Cumberland St. due to “ongoing safety concerns” related to its central Ottawa location, following “incidents where the safety of personnel was compromised.”

In one such instance earlier this year, an employee was “verbally and physically accosted” by someone on Rideau Street, according to the Ottawa Citizen.

Lalonde replied that the overall cost of moving up to 995 DND employees to the Major-General George R. Pearkes Building is estimated at approximately C$1 million.

— Carbon stats: Conservative JOHN BARLOW asked how much the Liberal government’s clean fuel regulations and standard will hit Canada's gross domestic product.

Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT said Ottawa estimates the regulations will result in an overall GDP decrease of up to C$9 billion, and reduce as much as 26.6 megatonnes of emissions in 2030.

Guilbeault added that after taking into account the social costs of carbon, the “monetized benefits” from the regulations should exceed their costs from 2022 through 2040.

— The Walrus goes deep on a question that could define the next era in Canadian politics: What would PIERRE POILIEVRE do if he wins?

— Queen's Park Observer scooped Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH's defamation suit against pollster QUITO MAGGI.

— The Logic reports: "Brookfield in talks with Canadian pensions to create new C$50B fund for domestic assets." Conservative MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER paints a conflict-ridden picture of MARK CARNEY.

— Former Tory Leader ERIN O'TOOLE "considered expelling a Conservative senator over foreign influence concerns," he told the Hogoe Commission Wednesday.

— From Radio-Canada: Smugglers are advertising illegal Canada-U.S. border crossings on TikTok

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by KYLE DUGGAN and SUE ALLAN: A 12-word dare from the Conservatives.

In other news for Pro readers: 

— Summer is getting hotter. Billions of people are at risk.

— Fact-checking Trump’s claims about EV trucks.

— Google scores surprise court win on EU antitrust fine.

— Mike Johnson open to keeping some green energy tax credits.

— California’s sweeping AI safety proposal awaits a crucial decision from Newsom.

A message from UnSmoke Canada:

Governments should help adult smokers quit. But quite simply, for those who choose not to quit tobacco and nicotine altogether, openly recognizing the potential of smoke-free products such as nicotine pouches, vapes, and heated tobacco playing their part in smoking harm reduction is something Canada needs to consider when it comes to legislative change. Recent regulatory decisions implemented by the Minster of Health severely limit access to those adult smokers who are looking to make an informed decision that’s right for them. Learn more how Canada can become a global leader and accelerate change.

Birthdays: HBD to MP BRYAN MAY, who is 50 today. HBD + 1 to PBO YVES GIROUX.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: DANIEL MINDEN and friends, marking his departure as Defense Minister BILL BLAIR's comms director with a going-away bash at Tavern at the Gallery. Blair and former Defense Minister ANITA ANAND bade him farewell with remarks. Minden reiterated to Playbook, for the final time (for now), that the evening was off the record.

More Liberal staffers at 3 Brewers on Sparks Street, imbibing in their party's first "Wonderful Wednesday" pub night in years — hosted by Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE.

At DAVID FRUM's conversation with The Hub's SEAN SPEER in the NAC's lantern room: Tory MPs ADAM CHAMBERS, GREG MCLEAN and TOM KMIEC; MICHELE AUSTIN, GINNY ROTH, SCOTTY GREENWOOD, ASHTON ARSENAULT, DAN MOULTON, ELIZABETH ROSCOE, THEO ARGITIS, CHRIS HALL, BLAIR DICKERSON, DEREK VANSTONE and RENZE NAUTA.

— QP scenes: Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, joking across the aisle pre-QP with Tory Deputy Leader MELISSA LANTSMAN … Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ, taking a pass on QP for whatever reason … NDP MP LORI IDLOUT, reading her members’ statement in Inuktitut (making it all the way through on her third attempt, amid technical issues with the translation into English and French). Most MPs stood to applaud Idlout's perseverance … Speaker GREG FERGUS, admonishing NDP MP PETER JULIAN for yelling "Elmwood-Transcona!" as PIERRE POILIEVRE rose in QP … Liberal MP IREK KUSMIERCZYK, whose Windsor region scored billions in federal and corporate auto investments, leading the desk-thumping as Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU rhymed off rosy foreign direct investment stats.

Noted: Former CPC leadership candidate — and Quebec premier — JEAN CHAREST, still repaying campaign debt, hosts a fundraiser at Montreal's Mount Royal Club on Sept. 23.

Movers and shakers: JOANNA DAFOE steps in as Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT's chief of staff.

CLAIRE BRAGG started as a consultant and government relations coordinator at Crestview.

Torys LLP is lobbying on behalf of Mesabi Investments, the parent company of a metallics division that is "investigating and discussing … financial and credit support" options in Ottawa.

Media mentions: Kathari News, an outlet that reports on the global energy transition, added SADÈ AGARD as content editor … WAYNE SCANLAN, a former Ottawa Citizen sports reporter who writes about the Sens for Sportsnet is — pardon the pun — hanging up his skates after 44 years in the biz.

8:15 a.m. The House Industry committee continues clause-by-clause review of Bill C-27, the Liberal government’s AI and privacy overhauls.

8:15 a.m. The House Indigenous and northern affairs committee will study Bill C-61.

8:15 a.m. The House national defense committee gets briefed on threat analysis for Ukraine and the Baltic region from RAND senior analyst MARTA KEPE, NPSIA prof. STEPHEN SAIDEMAN and University of Ottawa professor DOMINIQUE AREL.

9 a.m. The Senate agriculture committee will consider Bill C-275.

9 a.m. The Senate energy, environment and natural resources committee will take Bill C-49 through clause-by-clause consideration.

11 a.m. The House government operations committee hears from senior bureaucrats from Public Services and Procurement and Treasury Board about consulting contracts awarded to McKinsey.

11 a.m. The House human resources committee hears from Statistics Canada about pay disparities between unionized and non-unionized Canadians.

11:30 a.m. Canada’s ambassador to Ukraine, NATALKA CMOC, and Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada, YULIYA KOVALIV, will be at the Senate foreign affairs committee.

11:30 a.m. The Senate social affairs, science and tech committee will consider Bill C-64 on pharmacare, and hear from academics MARC-ANDRÉ GAGNON, MATTHEW HERDER and STEVEN MORGAN, as well as head of the Montreal Economic Institute DANIEL DUFORT.

3:30 p.m. Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT is in the hot seat at the House ethics committee.

3:30 p.m. The House finance committee hears from tax experts on the government’s changes to capital gains.

3:30 p.m. Immigration Minister MARC MILLER is the star witness at the House public safety committee, with a meeting scheduled on the foiled terrorist plot in Toronto. Appearing later on: RCMP Commissioner MICHAEL DUHEME, CSIS head VANESSA LLOYD and Canada Border Services Agency Executive Vice-President TED GALLIVAN.

3:30 p.m. The House science and research committee is studying the science and research of plastics recycling.

3:30 p.m. VIA Rail Canada President MARIO PÉLOQUIN will be at the House transport committee to answer questions about an Aug. 31 train that was stranded for half a day between Montreal and Quebec City.

Behind closed doors: The Commons justice committee will discuss its antisemitism study. Official languages plans to review drafting instructions for its report on minority language post-secondary institutions. Veterans affairs talks about Persian Gulf vets. Foreign affairs plans future business. Health will continue to mull its report on breast cancer screening guidelines.

Wednesday’s answer: On Sept. 18, 1973, JIMMY CARTER filed a report with the International UFO Bureau claiming he had seen a UFO in October 1969.

Props to YAROSLAV BARAN, SARA MAY, DUANE BRATT, DOUG RICE, ANDREW KOSTER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, LAURA JARVIS, GERMAINE MALABRE, GREG MACEaCHERN, GUY SKIPWORTH, KEVIN BOSCH, LUCAS MALINOWSKI, MARCEL MARCOTTE, DEREK DECLOET, JOHN ECKER and MALCOLM MCKAY.

Today’s question: On this date in history, two MPs were introduced to the House by ELSIE WAYNE, PETER MACKAY, DEBORAH GREY and CHUCK STRAHL. Name the politicians.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: KYLE DUGGAN and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY

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Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan