By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

NEW POLLS OVERNIGHT — NYT/Siena this morning has new post-debate polling showing KAMALA HARRIS and DONALD TRUMP tied nationally but with Harris opening a four-point lead in crucial Pennsylvania, 50% to 46%. (Yes, NYT polling guru Nate Cohn acknowledges, those two results together are “a bit of a puzzle.”)

Marist, meanwhile, is out with statewide polls of likely voters in three key battlegrounds: In Michigan: Harris 52%, Trump 47% … In Wisconsin: Harris 50%, Trump 49% … In Pennsylvania: Harris and Trump are tied at 49% … More from the Hill

NEW JMART — “Inside Trump’s Electoral Firewall,” by Jonathan Martin in Philadelphia: “If [Harris] can’t carry Pennsylvania, her only hope is on a Southern strategy. Harris must win either Georgia or North Carolina. She has no other path to the White House. The election could well be determined when polls close in the eastern time zone. (Well, yes, after the ballots are all counted.)”

House Speaker Mike Johnson has to decide whether to put up a clean six-month CR or propose something else entirely. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

JOHNSON’S CHOICE — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s failure to pass his six-month government funding proposal last night is triggering questions about what the Louisiana Republican will do next — and also revealing fresh tensions inside the GOP conference just weeks ahead of what’s shaping up to be a contentious leadership race.

Despite the House Freedom Caucus’ demand that that any continuing resolution extend into 2025 and include a bill requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote (aka the SAVE Act), a band of conservatives joined with defense hawk MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) to kill Johnson’s plan that would do exactly that. In total, 14 Republicans opposed the proposal. More on the vote from Caitlin Emma

Now, Johnson has to decide whether to put up a clean six-month CR, propose something else entirely, or simply swallow what senators and a bipartisan group in the House want: a three-month CR that lines the deadline up with the holiday season’s annual tarmac fever.

Two important dynamics to take into consideration:

1. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER isn’t planning to wait for House Republicans to get their act together. Today, we hear, he’ll file cloture on a vehicle that will eventually be swapped with the final CR plan — just in case.
   
2. Johnson is not interested in a shutdown. In that sense, you can largely ignore what Donald Trump is demanding on his social media accounts: that Republicans shut the government down unless the SAVE Act is passed. 

From the Republican perspective, Johnson did his part here and his own conservative members failed to get on board. So that’s that.

The real question is whether Johnson sticks to his guns on a half-year CR or caves. He has been planning to go to the mat fighting the so-called “side deal” KEVIN McCARTHY struck with President JOE BIDEN before the Californian was ousted as speaker. But he worries the short and chaotic post-election free-for-all before Christmas won’t give him enough time to land a new deal.

But Johnson’s problem now is that because his own members torpedoed his opening bid, he has no leverage over Democrats. We wrote weeks ago how the speaker knew he’d never get Democrats to swallow the SAVE Act, but viewed the proposal as a way to bolster his negotiating hand with the Senate to land that longer CR.

So much for that.

Johnson, however, could try to pass a “clean” six-month CR and dare Democrats to oppose it. Sure, Democrats — and even many of his own appropriators and Senate Republicans — have made clear they prefer a three-month CR. But, with the clock ticking on a shutdown, would they really balk at a six-month bill?

After all, Democrats and many GOP appropriators scoffed at Johnson’s proposal last year to pass a “ladder” CR that included different funding deadlines for different agencies. But in the end, they swallowed.

Two complications if he goes this route: (1) Johnson’s six-month plan is much longer than last year’s CR, and defense leaders are warning of major impacts on the military. (2) Trump’s demand on the SAVE Act also means Johnson would lose a large chunk of GOP votes. He’d have to rely on probably 100 Democrats to fill that void.

Notably, we can report exclusively this morning that Heritage Action is coming out strongly in favor of passing a longer CR — which could help whip GOP votes. “Passing another short-term CR and massive omnibus before the end of the year is exactly what Kamala Harris, Chuck Schumer and Democrats in Congress want,” Heritage Action EVP RYAN WALKER writes. “Avoiding that scenario should be lawmakers’ top priority.”

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: There’s another dynamic that’s further complicating Johnson’s job: Lawmakers are already anticipating the post-election leadership landscape and angling themselves for promotion.

One senior Republican told us last night that the embarrassing defeat on the floor less than seven weeks before the election has left a bitter taste in the mouths of conservatives who opposed the measure, centrists fretting a shutdown and appropriators who knew the plan was doomed from the start — and also Johnson’s own leadership team.

The person said senior members were smarting because Johnson came up with his now-failed plan without initially seeking their counsel — and continues to keep them in the dark on his Plan B.

Others are balking about the strategy, arguing that it’s bad form to lean on members to back a bill they don’t like — even as most members in leadership believed it would fail.

“It takes a lot of political capital trying to get members to vote for something that won’t pass,” one senior Republican tells Playbook. “It’s bad member management.”

The gist on Johnson’s leadership position, according to this person? “People sense blood in the water. He has lost touch where the conference is in general. There is a sense he could be defeated,” in a post-election leadership race. (Our friends at Inside Congress also note that the leadership fallout could extend beyond Johnson, with other members of GOP leadership facing post-election challenges.)

Johnson’s allies aren’t buying this — nor do they blame the speaker for yesterday’s defeat. They’re frustrated that some of their own colleagues lost sight of the strategy behind the play call and have undercut their negotiating hand with the Senate. But they argue Johnson gave conservatives exactly what they asked for — and in his allies’ read, the loss is their doing.

As for the blind quotes skewering their guy? They’ve certainly taken note. But with the clock ticking on government funding — and no Plan B as of last night — there’s not much they can do to counter them at the moment.

Plus, much depends on Election Day. If Republicans keep the House majority, chances are that plenty will be forgiven, especially if Trump returns to the White House.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — White Dudes for Harris is launching an eye-popping eight-figure ad campaign targeting, you guessed it, persuadable white male voters in swing states, trying to draw a sharp contrast between the so-called “toxic masculinity” Trump displays and Harris’ campaign pitch.

The ad is airing in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on YouTube, streaming and social media platforms with a buy in the $10,000,000 range. It is backed by the Beige Rainbow PAC.

The narrator’s appeal is to white dudes who are “pretty sick of hearing how much we suck. Every time you go online, it’s the same story: we’re the problem. And yeah, some white dudes are. Trump and all his MAGA buddies are out there making it worse, shouting nonsense in their stupid red hats and acting like they speak for us when they don’t,” the ad says.

As for the pitch for Harris, the ad states it “isn’t about picking teams” but about “who’s got a plan that’s gonna make life better for me and my family.” Harris and Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ are “actually talking to guys like us — no lectures, no BS. Just real solutions that protect our freedoms and help us take care of the people who matter.” Watch the 60-second spot

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On the Hill

The Senate is in.

The House will meet at 10 a.m.

3 things to watch …

1. Congress is getting involved in Nebraska’s electoral-vote question. Key Republicans are making a late push on state leaders to abandon its system casting individual electoral votes for each congressional district — giving Harris the opportunity to secure a potentially decisive electoral vote out of the bluish Omaha-area 2nd District. In a new letter led by Rep. MIKE FLOOD, the all-GOP congressional delegation asks Gov. JIM PILLEN and legislative Speaker JOHN ARCH to act, saying “the state should speak with a united voice in presidential elections.” And NBC reports that Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) traveled to Lincoln yesterday on Trump’s behalf to lean on Pillen and state lawmakers.
   
2. In Maine (that other state with piecemeal electoral-vote apportionment) Democratic Rep. JARED GOLDEN has managed to keep his head above water for three elections now in the rural, otherwise-GOP-leaning 2nd District. But a new poll from Pan Atlantic Research published yesterday in the Bangor Daily News suggests Golden might have an uphill battle this year. He trails Republican AUSTIN THERIAULT, 47 percent to 44 percent. The silver lining for Golden? Winning 47 percent doesn’t guarantee a win under Maine’s ranked-choice system, which Golden used two years ago to secure victory.
   
3. Longtime WaPo columnist Dana Milbank is out Tuesday with his rapier-eyed look at the House GOP, “Fools on the Hill: The Hooligans, Saboteurs, Conspiracy Theorists, and Dunces Who Burned Down the House” ($32). An excerpt published yesterday was classic Milbank, relentless skewering Republicans with just-the-facts recitations of their own blunders, excesses and inanities — and nuggets of eyebrow-raising reporting. Did you know KEVIN McCARTHY had “a bidet installed in the speaker’s office”?

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. In the afternoon, Biden will deliver remarks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. At 8:45 p.m., the president will deliver remarks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute 47th Annual Awards Gala. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and CEA Chair JARED BERNSTEIN will brief at 2:15 p.m.

On the trail

Harris will be in Farmington Hills, Michigan, for a campaign event at 8 p.m.

2024 WATCH

VP Kamala Harris’ campaign is focusing its economic pitch on the care economy. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

THE PIVOT POINT — As part of the Biden administration, Harris has been part of an effort to pour more than $50 billion into Rust Belt industry and infrastructure. But as the Democratic presidential nominee, Harris is hardly mentioning the massive spending as she woos voters in the crucial region, Gavin Bade and Brittany Gibson report from Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Instead, Harris’ campaign is focusing its economic pitch on the “care economy” in a “major pivot from her current boss, who made rebuilding domestic manufacturing a core part of his message to voters in the so-called Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, before his reelection bid collapsed in July.”

While the campaign is insisting that the rhetorical break from Biden makes sense given their different backgrounds and polls in the key swing states show positive signs for Harris, the pivot is still “raising concerns among some Democrats in the upper Midwest, who worry she risks losing some of the working-class voters that helped the party win the White House and Senate in 2020.”

The Teamsters made an unexpected decision in declining to issue a presidential endorsement yesterday. | Julia Nikhinson/AP

TEAM TALK — The Teamsters declined to issue a presidential endorsement yesterday, citing in a statement “no majority support” for Harris and “no universal support” for Trump among its million-plus members — marking a sizable blow for Harris given the Biden administration’s unabashed union loyalty, Nick Niedzwiadek, Brittany Gibson and Holly Otterbein report.

No endorsement won out in a 14-3 vote, vice president at-large JOHN PALMER told POLITICO after the union’s board meeting. “It was cowardice,” said Palmer, who is planning to run on a slate against President SEAN O’BRIEN in 2026. Palmer was one of the three votes for Harris and blamed internal politics for lack of support for the vice president.

Despite the lack of national cohesion, Teamster locals in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, California and New York indicated public backing from their members for Harris. Trump painted the no-endorsement, the Teamsters’ first since 1996, as a win for his campaign. “It’s a great honor,” Trump told reporters, per Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser.

More top reads:

• The Harris campaign is rapidly ramping up TIM WALZ’s fundraising push, planning a swing in New York for the Minnesota governor next Monday, Meredith Lee Hill reports. Harris, meanwhile, will hold three of her own major fundraising events before the end of the month in New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles, as the team aims to pour millions more dollars into resource-intensive ground organizing.

• Trump on the campaign trail is “tossing out tax cut proposals like candy,” Brian Faler writes, as the former president tries to win over key segments of voters all while putting congressional Republicans in a bind. “The flurry of ad hoc proposals would cost trillions, on top of the eye-popping $4.6 trillion it will cost if lawmakers act to prevent taxes going up on a huge swath of Americans at the end of next year when big chunks of the GOP’s 2017 tax cuts will expire.”

• Iranian hackers tried to send sensitive stolen info from the Trump campaign to what was then the Biden campaign earlier this summer, U.S. investigators said yesterday, Maggie Miller and John Sakellariadis report. A Harris campaign spokesperson said it was not aware of the attempt. 

MORE POLITICS

BIG IN THE BIG APPLE — The mounting morass of scandals around NYC Mayor ERIC ADAMS’ administration may be all the talk in the Big Apple, but on Capitol Hill, it’s a game of wait and see for New York’s Dem delegation, Emily Ngo, Nicholas Wu and Katherine Tully-McManus report.

“Some of the New York representatives stress they weren’t close to Adams to begin with. Those who do have a relationship with the mayor are reserving judgment. All say there has been no notable disruption in how their offices coordinate to — as Adams would say — get stuff done. Neither effusive praise nor blistering criticism, it is, collectively, a shrug. At least for now.”

Related read: “Adams reelection challenger joins forces with popular Dem on gun violence message,” by Jason Beeferman

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POLICY CORNER

FED UP — The Fed yesterday said it will slash interest rates by half a percentage point and projected two more cuts before the end of the year, in a clear sign that officials believe they are winning the battle against inflation, Victoria Guida reports. “The move — which is twice as large as a standard rate cut — also indicates that the central bank is growing nervous about the weakening labor market.”

The road ahead: “They projected four rate cuts next year and two more the year after, with inflation returning to the central bank’s 2 percent target by the end of 2025.”

THE VIEW FROM K STREET — Lobbyists are scrambling to figure out how to get the inside track with a potential Harris White House, confronting questions similar to the ones many voters now face: Who is Kamala Harris? What does she care about, and whom does she trust?

“During her time as a California senator, Harris’ office was seen as either ambivalent to or dismissive of the requests of corporate interests. During her years as vice president, she was seen as superfluous to the core policymaking process,” Hailey Fuchs reports. “But in the twists of an unexpectedly volatile presidential election cycle, K Street is now setting its sights on the new Democratic ticket-leader — and rushing to catch up on years of relationship-building.”

TRUMP CARDS

ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT — On the heels of the second would-be attempt on Trump’s life, the Secret Service briefed members of the bipartisan House task force investigating the July assassination attempt, with leadership of the panel praising the agency’s handling of the Florida incident, Jordain Carney reports. “Reps. MIKE KELLY (R-Pa.), the chair of the panel, and JASON CROW (D-Colo.), the task force’s top Democrat, said they believed the Secret Service had made adjustments and that Trump on Sunday received a level of security with was ‘commensurate’ with what a president would receive.”

Related read: “A journey from N.C. to Ukraine to suspect in apparent assassination attempt,” by WaPo’s Emmanuel Felton, Brady Dennis, Joanna Slater, Molly Hennessy-Fiske, Emily Wax-Thibodeaux and David Stern

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

STEEL RESERVE — Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel could be put on ice until at least after the November election now that the companies have to resubmit the planned deal, WSJ’s Bob Tita and Alexander Ward report. “The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. is granting the companies’ request to refile an application for a national-security review of the $14.1 billion deal, people familiar with the matter said. The move effectively provides as much as 90 days for the companies and committee to consider questions about steel availability and potential production disruptions.”

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The U.N. General Assembly yesterday “strongly supported a nonbinding Palestinian resolution demanding that Israel end its ‘unlawful presence’ in Gaza and the occupied West Bank within a year,” AP’s Edith Lederer reports. “The vote in the 193-member world body was 124-14, with 43 abstentions. Among those in opposition was the United States, Israel’s closest ally.”

On the pager attack: “How a Covert Attack Against Hezbollah Unfolded Across Lebanon’s Streets and Malls,” by WSJ’s Adam Chamseddine, Stephen Kalin and Omar Abdel-Baqui … “A key question behind Israeli attack on Hezbollah devices: Why now?” by WaPo’s Loveday Morris, Joby Warrick and Shira Rubin

Doug Emhoff is dreaming of putting Florida in play.

Melania Trump is standing up for her “celebration of the human form.”

Mike Johnson did an oopsie at yesterday’s Congressional Gold Medal ceremony for the “hidden figures.”

Michelle Obama is out pushing her new drink.

IN MEMORIAM — “King, former WSJ global economics editor, has died,” by TalkingBizNews’ Chris Roush: “Neil King, the former global economics editor at The Wall Street Journal, died Tuesday from cancer. He left The Journal in 2016. Last year, his book “American Ramble: A Walk of Memory and Renewal” documented his 330-mile walk from Washington to New York. King worked for 15 years in the Journal’s Washington bureau, where he covered beats ranging from terrorism and foreign policy to trade and the international oil industry.” King’s family said there is a funeral mass planned for Monday, Sept. 23, at 10 a.m. at St. Peter's Church on Capitol Hill.

OUT AND ABOUT — Semafor hosted Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi at the Gallup Great Hall for a Semafor Principal’s Live event moderated by Kadia Goba. The conversation touched on Pelosi’s new book, “The Art of Power,” ($30) her two decades as the top Democrat in the House and the state of the 2024 presidential race. SPOTTED: Estonian Ambassador Kristjan Prikk, Zachary Parker, Silvia-Magdalena Florescu-Ciobotaru, Justin Smith, Burgess Everett, Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant, Benjy Sarlin and Meera Pattni.

— SPOTTED at a welcome breakfast for retired Lt. Gen. Reynold Hoover, CEO of LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games, hosted by Tammy Haddad yesterday: Lee Satterfield, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Evan Ryan, John Kirby, Jonathan Lenzner, Alex Lasry, Mark Ein, Robert Allbritton, Caitlin Durkovich, Tom McMillen, Arun Gupta, Rica Rodman, Bob Barnett, Ethan Rosenzweig, Pamela Brown, Symone Sanders-Townsend, Liz Johnson, Dee Dee Myers, Nicole Elkon, Stuart Holliday and Danita Johnson.

— Adrienne Elrod headlined a fundraiser for the Harris-Walz campaign at the home of Julie Chase with co-hosts Eve Maldonado O’Toole, Leslie