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| By Kimberly Leonard |
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 Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. | Ben Curtis/AP Photo
| Good morning and welcome to Thursday. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday moved forward with an aggressive rate cut that’s already recalibrating how Florida politicians talk about the economy. The decision, issued 48 days before the election, will have tangible effects on people’s lives by making it cheaper to borrow money to pay for homes, credit cards bills, education and cars. Florida has especially felt the housing affordability crunch, with its uniquely high insurance premiums compounding the price of homeownership. An influx of new residents also has created tremendous housing demand. The rate cut could improve how people feel about the economy, an area where Republicans tend to have a large advantage with voters. Florida Democrats have tried to run on affordability problems in the state, but voter discontent with high prices has been entrenched. Republican leaders in Florida, meanwhile, have insisted that concerns about inflation and the economy will outweigh all other issues, and that Democrats will be blamed for persistent dissatisfaction. The messaging may evolve. Democrats should be talking about the economy more, including about Vice President Kamala Harris’ promise to expand the child tax credit, said Christian Ulvert, a Democratic strategist who ran Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava’s successful reelection campaign. “This shows we have a strong message and platform to own the economic message,” he said, “and we should double down on that.” President Joe Biden will be speaking about the rate cut today at the Economic Club of Washington. Rep. Darren Soto (D-Fla.) credited legislation passed under Biden, including boosts in manufacturing and construction, for helping to improve supply chains. The rate reduction, he said, was “a recognition that we have made progress.” But Republicans say not so fast. It’ll take time to see whether the Fed’s approach worked to try to tame inflation without causing a recession, and one of the big reasons rates are coming down is because of the Fed’s concerns about how the job market has shown signs of slowing. “I guess it shows the economy is very bad to cut it by that much, assuming they’re not just playing politics,” Trump said Wednesday at a campaign stop in New York, despite the central bank’s independence and Chair Jerome Powell’s pledge not to let politics influence decisions.
“The Fed today confirmed what we all know, the economy is failing,” said Evan Power, chair of the Republican Party of Florida. “It's time to put an end to the disastrous Harris-Biden regime.” As of now, federal officials project the unemployment rate will tick up from 4.2 percent to 4.4 percent by the end of the year. Powell indicated Wednesday’s large cut was in part to make up for not doing one in July, and said there’d be a lag before economic effects were felt. He added that he wasn’t ready to declare “mission accomplished” despite “confidence that inflation is coming down.” Plus, prices remain higher than they were during the Trump administration on groceries, gas and rent. “I know prices are still too high for many middle class and working families,” Vice President Kamala Harris acknowledged in a statement, while also trying to contrast her agenda with Trump’s. The former president also has, however, made extensive promises about cutting taxes. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) predicted on Fox Business Wednesday night that the cut wouldn’t matter. “The long-term issues of massive cost overruns on the pocketbooks of the American people cannot be ignored,” he said. “No sugar high of a fed rate cut before the election is going to change that.” WHERE’S RON? Gov. DeSantis is holding a roundtable discussion in Pinellas Park at 9 a.m. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget in the campaign reporting that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Uber: How does Uber expand transit access in Florida?
Every week, Uber helps over 3,000 people get to and from Brightline stations across Florida. On average, riders travel nearly 6 miles to connect to Brightline, extending their reach far beyond the tracks. Learn more about how Uber is working with transit agencies in Florida and across the country. | | | |
 | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | |
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 Then-President Donald Trump speaks with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as he arrives at Southwest Florida International Airport, Oct. 16, 2020, in Fort Myers, Florida. | Evan Vucci/AP |
AMENDMENT 3 — ”Florida pot amendment divides Republicans between DeSantis and Trump,” reports POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian. “So far, most state Republicans have either stayed quiet on the issue or oppose legalization, and the state Republican Party has officially come out against the measure, vowing to fight it. State Sen. Joe Gruters — an ally of the former president — said he is the only Republican state lawmaker who supports the measure publicly.” … POLITICO Florida will have a story on every amendment on the November ballot this week. Pro subscribers receive the reporting first, but stay tuned here in Playbook for each day’s story. SCHOOLS HARDENED SINCE PARKLAND, YET … — “Florida’s schools flooded by threats of violence: ‘This is absolutely out of control,’” reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury. “Law enforcement and education officials in Florida are dealing with a flood of threats against K-12 schools this fall and are taking drastic measures to protect students. A growing number of schools are turning to metal detectors to thwart students from bringing weapons on campus grounds, as a string of student arrests across the state has local leaders on high alert. And sheriffs frustrated by a wave of school shooting threats pouring into schools have decided to dish out public embarrassment to parents and students — some as young as 11 years old — who break Florida’s school safety laws.”
NEW PROPOSED RULE — “Florida wants more influence over university presidential searches,” reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury. “Under the proposed changes, presidential search committees would have to get a list of prospective finalists approved by the Board of Governors chair before it can be considered by individual school's trustees. The policy shift is seen by some school trustees as the state ‘eating away’ at their role in running universities, and particularly one of their chief jobs: choosing leadership.” ‘PROHIBITED GIFT’ — “Ethics Commission: Lobbyist never cashed Baxter's reimbursement checks for trip, VIP dinner,” reports the Palm Beach Post’s Mike Diamond. “A yearlong investigation by the Palm Beach County Commission on Ethics has resulted in a prominent state lobbyist, Ron Book, being cited for failing to cash checks totaling $600 from county Commissioner Sara Baxter for a ride on his private jet to Tallahassee to attend the inauguration of Gov. Ron DeSantis in January 2023. Book finally cashed the checks 18 months after they were written once a COE investigator asked him for verification that they had been cashed. Baxter also reimbursed Book for a pricey VIP dinner she attended as well; that check, along with the other, was not cashed until July of this year. Sitting on the checks after 90 days of receiving them turned the trip and
the dinner into gifts, according to COE, which means Baxter had to report them as such, and she did not.” STILL A PROBLEM — “Florida families say school voucher reimbursements worse than ever,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Jeffrey S. Solochek. “Chat rooms are filled with parents telling stories of how they submit claims based on what they understand from the guides, only to be denied for reasons they don’t understand. When they contact the help center for Step Up for Students, which manages all but a handful of the vouchers, they get placed on hold for hours before receiving what they say is confusing and sometimes contradictory advice.” EXITING — “More Florida faculty still looking to leave the state, survey shows,” by Ian Hodgson and Divya Kumar of the Tampa Bay Times. “Florida professors are still eyeing jobs in other states, and those who remain say it’s getting harder to fill vacant positions at their universities, according to a recent survey of faculty in Southern states. The survey, administered by the state chapters of the American Association of University Professors and the United Faculty of Florida union, indicates that Florida’s political climate is a factor in the hiring and retention of university faculty.” — “Short term vacation rental bill sponsor won’t pick up the mantle in 2025,” reports Mitch Perry of the Florida Phoenix.
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PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | DELAY POST-SURFSIDE — “Federal report on Surfside collapse won’t be released until 2026. What’s taking so long?” by Aaron Leibowitz of the Miami Herald. “A key member of the geotechnical team, which is focused on below-ground conditions, departed. Interviews with witnesses and other stakeholders have taken more time than anticipated, due in part to a pause around this year’s collapse anniversary, out of respect for the families, and struggles in obtaining local government records. Testing of concrete samples and critical connections in the building has also been challenging, investigators said. The process involves the recreation of materials to resemble key slab-column connections at the pool deck and lobby levels of Champlain Towers South, and then simulating corrosion of the reinforcing steel bars and testing them to
understand their strength. More than $33 million has been spent on the investigation so far, officials said.” SAVING HISTORY — “Friends of the Gladstone wage three-pronged fight to preserve last Victorian-era mansion,” reports James Call of the Tallahassee Democrat. “Their effort to save the 13-room Gilded Era family home that was converted into a World War II boarding house includes a rules complaint filed with the Department of Financial Services over the use of state money for the project, a request for assistance from DeSantis to delay the demolition, and the start of a GoFundMe page to gauge community support for the effort to buy, move and repurpose the Gladstone as a historic artifact.” — “43 Cuban migrants taken into custody after making landfall in the Florida Keys,” reports 7News.
| | | | A message from Uber:   | | | — “Miami-Dade commissioners ‘kick the can’ on incinerator site, won’t decide until November,” reports the Miami Herald’s Douglas Hanks and Ashley Miznazi.
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CAMPAIGN MODE | | TOP-WATCHED RACE — “Simon and Parks battle for only Florida Senate seat Democrats are trying to flip,” reports Dara Kam of News Service of Florida. “[Democrat Daryl Parks,] a prominent trial lawyer with a civil-rights resume is jockeying to oust North Florida [Republican] state Sen. Corey Simon, in one of this year’s marquee legislative races and the only Senate district Democrats are angling to flip in November.” NEW ENDORSEMENT — Army veteran Rod Joseph, who ran in the Democratic Senate primary but is now leaving the party to register as a Republican, is endorsing Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) for reelection. He accused Democrats of having “an agenda that is against the norms and values of our society.” He finished last in the primary and was never considered a competitive candidate, but his roughly 5 percent of support translated to about 57,000 votes in August. EX-PREZ BACKING — “‘Tough, smart and will not let you down!” Trump makes endorsement in Palm Beach County Commission election. Will it help or hurt?” by Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. “[Michael] Barnett was appointed last year to fill a vacancy on the Palm Beach County Commission, and is running for a full term in November. The contest, in which he faces former Greenacres Mayor Joel Flores, is one of the most competitive 2024 elections in the county.” — “Would Warren be suspended again if he wins Hillsborough state attorney race?” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Dan Sullivan.
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DATELINE D.C. | | | |
Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. | Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo | INTERVIEW SPOTLIGHT — “The sole Haitian American in Congress speaks out,” by POLITICO’s Brakkton Booker and Jesse Naranjo. “Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) has found herself thrust into the spotlight in the days since the Republican presidential ticket started fanning some unexpected and unsubstantiated claims: that Haitian migrants in the Midwest are stealing and eating their neighbors’ pets … ‘I can tell you, as a Haitian American — my parents came from Haiti — nobody wanted to come to a country where you lose your history, you lose your identity, and come to a country that always demonizes you. ... So for this narrative to continue to be promoted by racists and bigots has to end.’”
BRIAN BALLARD INFLUENCE — “Why Big Tobacco is betting on Trump,” by the Washington Post’s Isaac Stanley-Becker, Dan Diamond and Josh Dawsey: “[T]he tobacco industry is banking on Trump’s chaotic approach to public health — and pliable views on policy — as it confronts a new challenge to its bottom line: efforts by regulators in the Biden administration to ban menthol cigarettes … The top corporate donor to the main pro-Trump super PAC is a subsidiary of Reynolds American … Big Tobacco’s bet on Trump shows how corporate interests believe the former president can be swayed by campaign donations — and brought into line even on issues where he has shown some independence from GOP orthodoxy.” NO BITES — “Moskowitz: No appetite in Congress for national property insurance solution,” reports Anne Geggis of the Palm Beach Post. “[Democratic Rep. Jared] Moskowitz' legislation, which he introduced in 2023, would create a national catastrophe fund by which the federal government would guarantee part of the damage-related costs in the event of a natural disaster. The bill would allow states to opt in so that the cost of natural disasters to property owners and insurance companies is borne on a national level … The legislation hasn’t moved in the U.S. House, which is governed by a thin GOP majority, since its introduction and Moskowitz hasn’t attracted a co-sponsor — in spite of tornadoes, wildfires and hurricanes that keep grabbing headlines.”
BIPARTISAN MOVES — “Congress is gridlocked. These members are convinced AI legislation could break through,” reports The Associated Press’ Dan Merica. “Rep. Madeleine Dean, a Pennsylvania Democrat, and Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican, introduced legislation earlier this month that aims to curb the spread of unauthorized AI-generated deepfakes. A bipartisan group of senators proposed companion legislation in the Senate. Opposition to such legislation has primarily focused on not stifling a burgeoning technology sector or making it easier for another country to become the hub for the AI industry.”
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| | A message from Uber: Expanding transit access in Florida
Did you know that every week, Uber helps over 3,000 people get to and from Brightline stations across Florida?
Key stat: On average, riders travel nearly 6 miles to reach these stations—extending Brightline’s reach far beyond the tracks.
From MiamiCentral to Aventura, Fort Lauderdale, Boca Raton, West Palm Beach, and Orlando, Uber is making it easier for Floridians to access public transit.
Learn more about how Uber partners with transit agencies to improve access to public transportation. | | | |
| ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | |
LITERARY STAR — “Bad Monkey's Carl Hiaasen is the Mark Twain of Florida men,” by GQ’s Evan McGarvey. “For decades, Hiaasen’s visions of Florida have folded the state’s ancient beauty — mangroves, raptors, manatees — into the slop of now: buttercream-colored mansions built on the cheap, watered-down strip club cocktails, politicians with rictus grins tiptoeing across shorelines wounded by hurricane debris.” BIRTHDAYS: Bill Varian, local government editor for Tampa Bay Times … Eden Giagnorio, communications director for the Florida Democratic Party. | | | |
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