By Lindsey Holden and Tyler Katzenberger

Presented by Californians for Energy Independence

Republican Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln is challenging Democratic Rep. Josh Harder for a competitive House seat. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP Photo

MEET THE ‘WOBBLERS’: Californians tuned into the state’s competitive House battles are likely aware of the white-hot races in the Central Valley and Southern California that could swing the balance of Congress.

But what about the lesser-known contests that are still getting money and attention from party bigwigs?

Meet the “wobblers.”

We’ve identified a handful of House races throughout California that are still generating campaign action, even if the incumbents are considered likely to hold onto their seats.

Take a spin through our political junkie’s guide to these sleeper races.

District 3: Rep. Kevin Kiley (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D)

Kiley’s massive Northern California district is rated “likely Republican” by House race-watchers. But that doesn’t mean Morse, the Democratic challenger, couldn’t do some damage.

“It's a competitive district,” Dave Gilliard, Kiley’s campaign consultant, told Playbook. “It's a district that I think needs to be taken care of from a political standpoint.”

Ad buys are cheaper in the district’s more rural media market. But the fact that it stretches from Lake Tahoe down to Death Valley — and includes portions of suburban Sacramento — makes it a challenging place to run a campaign.

And Kiley has spent accordingly. His campaign and outside groups had dropped more than $1.6 million on ad buys as of Wednesday, according to tracking firm AdImpact.

Kiley’s opening message was surprisingly warm and fuzzy fare from a candidate known for his sharp jabs at Gov. Gavin Newsom and other state Democrats. It played up the congressman’s bipartisanship and efforts to protect Lake Tahoe, promote water projects and help wildfire and flood victims.

Morse, on the other hand, came out swinging in her first spots, attacking Kiley’s stance on abortion rights and saying he voted against money for wildfire prevention.

“No one's really litigated Kiley’s record at scale,” said Morse, who previously served as a high-ranking forestry official at the state Natural Resources Agency. “So he's pretending like he's somebody who's delivering for the district.”

The on-air attacks forced Kiley’s campaign to respond quickly. Today, the GOP representative came out with an ad blasting Morse as dishonest and saying she is lying about her claim that he wants to ban abortion nationwide.

Gilliard doesn’t think Morse has the funds to keep spending at the same rate throughout the last weeks of the campaign. Kiley has maintained a sizable cash advantage in the race, based on mid-year filings.

Morse is not part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue program, which focuses on flippable seats, but party leaders are still showing their support.

Los Angeles Rep. Adam Schiff — who has time to campaign for House candidates, now that his Senate race against Republican Steve Garvey is all but sewn up — has stumped for her. He plans to come to Morse’s district in October to help with get out the vote efforts, according to her campaign.

District 9: Rep. Josh Harder (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R) 

This Democratic-leaning Stockton-area seat held by Harder is the undercard compared to must-win Central Valley fights in GOP Reps. John Duarte’s and David Valadao’s districts.

Yet Republicans are bullish that Lincoln could snag an upset, given he pulled off a 13-point ouster of well-known incumbent Democrat Michael Tubbs in Stockton’s 2021 mayoral race. Lincoln told Playbook that Speaker Mike Johnson visited his district as part of a Central Valley fundraising swing in August.

Johnson in a statement to Playbook called Lincoln “one of the top candidates in the nation this cycle who can flip a seat.”

“I have an incumbency advantage just as much as Josh Harder does because I’m the mayor of the largest city in the district,” Lincoln said.

That optimism resonates in ad spending, where the National Republican Congressional Committee has funneled nearly $650,000 into a broadcast spot highlighting Lincoln’s background as a pastor and Marine veteran, according to AdImpact. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has yet to invest in ads supporting Harder.

But Harder, a formidable fundraiser, boasted a war chest five times larger than Lincoln’s as of June 30. And despite jumping into a new district in 2022, Harder notched a 10-point victory that outpaced margins for other Democrats on the ballot in his district that year, including Newsom and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla.

Harder is looking to maintain his strength in November with messaging that directly speaks to residents’ frustrations with high costs. In a recent ad, he even included a dig at Democratic-controlled Sacramento, which he said has done “nothing” to curb rising utility prices.

“The enthusiasm right now is incredible,” he told Playbook, citing a recent uptick in campaign volunteers. “It's clear our message of lowering prices is resonating.”

District 40: Rep. Young Kim (R) vs. Joe Kerr (D)

This Orange County contest is probably the least competitive of our wobbler races.

Kim, the incumbent, has vastly outraised and outspent her Democratic challenger, Kerr, who has yet to air a broadcast ad as of today, according to AdImpact.

Still, she is not taking any chances. So far, more than $3 million has been spent on ads bolstering the GOP congressmember, including spots from outside groups.

The district is considered strongly Republican — and while President Joe Biden won it by just under two points in 2020, Kim beat her Democratic opponent by nearly 14 percent two years later.

Like Kiley, Kim used her ad to paint a picture of bipartisan cooperation. It features community members talking about why they have her support, and it shows the congressmember talking to law enforcement officers, a motorist at a gas pump and a group of voters at a restaurant.

Ad spending for Kerr has totaled a mere $709, according to AdImpact. That kind of money barely buys a postage stamp in the district’s media market and shows the uphill battle Kerr faces in this election.

District 49: Rep. Mike Levin (D) vs. Matt Gunderson (R)

Abortion is the hot topic in this wealthy, Democratic-leaning district lodged between Orange and San Diego counties and held by Levin.

Gunderson, a car dealership owner, has pitched himself to voters as pro-choice, joining a small but growing legion of Republicans who hope a softer abortion stance can neutralize a weakness that’s haunted the GOP since the 2022 midterms. 

In his first TV spot, not-so-subtly titled “Pro-Choice,” Gunderson issued a vintage Clintonian decree that abortion “should be safe, legal and rare” over footage of him with his wife and four daughters.

But Levin is out to poke holes in Gunderson’s pro-choice lifeboat. His campaign launched a TV ad today that picks apart the Republican’s position and leans heavily on Planned Parenthood to boost Levin’s abortion-rights credentials.

“Our opponent continues throwing every lie at the wall to see what sticks,” Levin campaign manager Andrew Berkowitz told Playbook.

Gunderson’s campaign told Playbook that Levin’s ad misrepresents his views and lacks context. “I have always been pro-choice and always will be,” he said.

IT’S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.

A message from Californians for Energy Independence:

As California transitions to a lower carbon energy economy, we should continue to produce the oil and gas we still need in-state, where it meets world-class environmental standards and our communities can benefit from the revenues. But instead, California energy policies are shutting down in-state oil production faster than we can build adequate replacement energy - increasing our dependence on more costly imported oil. Get the facts on California energy policies.

Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi is among a group of lawmakers who remain skeptical of Gov. Gavin Newsom's proposal to limit gas price spikes. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP

PRIMING THE PUMPS: Newsom administration officials briefed an Assembly panel today on the governor’s proposal to limit gas price spikes. And though it’s only the second day lawmakers have met for a special legislative session on the issue, they did not appear close to a consensus after testimony from labor unions, industry and academics.

“I am not yet convinced of my support for the proposal,” Democratic Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi said during the hearing. He echoed labor union concerns that refineries would have an incentive to unsafely delay maintenance in order to prevent officials from coming in and checking their gas storage levels.

Newsom’s AB X 2-1 would empower the California Energy Commission to require refineries to maintain additional fuel stores in an attempt to stabilize prices when supplies are otherwise tight — such as cases in which refineries go offline for maintenance. Senate leader Mike McGuire has said his chamber has the votes to pass the governor’s proposal, but has declined to call his chamber back to Sacramento until the more fractured Assembly reaches agreement on the issue.

Several members noted they were looking for “low-hanging fruit,” options that could quickly and simply limit politically toxic price increases.

“The purpose for us having a special session, yes, it's to vet the governor's proposal,” said Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris, who is chairing the Petroleum and Gasoline Committee established for the special session. “But I think more importantly, it's for us to understand the challenges that we face right now, and I hope, identify additional opportunities and supplemental solutions as well.” — Blake Jones

A message from Californians for Energy Independence:

Gov. Gavin Newsom today brushed off Elon Musk’s criticism of anti-deepfake legislation during a bill-signing in San Francisco. | Steven Senne/AP

NEWSOM VS. MUSK: Newsom today brushed off Elon Musk’s criticism of an anti-deepfake bill that the governor signed after the X CEO shared digitally-doctored content, saying Musk did not understand the law, our Jeremy B. White reports.

“Mr. Musk missed the punchline,” Newsom said during a press conference in San Francisco in which he signed three more bills cracking down on deepfakes, including one involving sexually explicit images of another identifiable person. “Parody’s still alive and well in California.”

Newsom did not say he intended to seek legal action against Musk or people who have shared manipulated content of the governor himself this week, despite lawmakers writing the bill so courts can act on misleading images or videos before the November election.

POLITICO Pro subscribers can read Lara Korte’s full story about the latest deepfake legislation.

BUILD, BUILD, BUILD: Newsom signed a half-dozen housing bills today during a ceremony at an affordable housing project in San Francisco’s Mission District — including bills aimed at beefing up enforcement against cities and counties that block new construction.

The governor himself had championed one of those proposals: AB 3093 from Chris Ward, which requires cities to plan for homeless shelters as part of their efforts to meet state-assigned housing targets. That law will make it easier for the state to sue cities that block plans for new shelters.

Another significant measure was Oakland Democrat Buffy Wicks' AB 1893, which she argued will make it easier for developers to bypass local planning rules and build projects in cities that have flouted a state requirement to plan for enough homes.

Despite the fanfare at Newsom’s press conference Thursday, California’s legislative session didn’t result in the kind of landmark housing bills we’ve seen in recent years. Most of the legislation Newsom signed was focused on tightening requirements around how cities plan for enough housing. — Dustin Gardiner

A message from Californians for Energy Independence:

California faces growing inflation, a rising cost of living, and has some of the highest gas prices in the country. Now, California energy policies could make matters worse.

That’s because California is shutting down in-state oil and gas production before we have adequate replacement energy. That forces our state to spend $25 billion a year importing more costly oil to meet our needs - sending billions that could be supporting California’s economy out of state instead. These energy policies threaten California’s access to reliable energy, while increasing our gas prices.

As California transitions to a lower carbon energy economy, we should continue to produce the oil and gas we still need in-state, where it meets world-class environmental standards and our communities can benefit from the revenues - rather than increase our dependence on more costly imported oil.

Get the facts on California energy policies.

— The rush to get close to Kamala Harris and her inner circle is on. (POLITICO)

— Former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are sparring over marijuana legalization. (POLITICO)

— Why the risk of Valley fever in California is rising, captured in three charts. (The Mercury News)

— Huntington Beach is suing state officials in an attempt to block a new California law on transgender student privacy (Daily Pilot)

— Housing, homelessness and infrastructure issues were flashpoints in San Diego’s first mayoral debate Wednesday night between Democratic incumbent Todd Gloria and Republican challenger Larry Turner. (San Diego Union-Tribune)

— Scandals make splashy headlines in San Francisco’s mayoral race, but it’s unclear whether voters care. (San Francisco Examiner)

— A Marin County town could become one of the first municipalities to ban private pickleball courts. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— compiled by Tyler Katzenberger

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