By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan

Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. It’s Friday!

Let’s get to it:

→ Playbook catches up with Ontario’s top handshaker in Washington.

→ As PABLO RODRIGUEZ plots his exit, he’s prompting all kinds of downstream changes.

→ Toss a second oppo day onto next week’s agenda.

→ The skinny on EMMANUEL MACRON’s trip to Canada.

ONTARIO MAN — "I'm learning slowly to be a diplomat," DAVID PATERSON told Playbook in a recent one-hour roundtable conversation. Ontario's envoy in Washington is business-first when he knocks on D.C. doors: "My conversations are not really political. They're economic."

Paterson, a C-suite veteran of GM Canada, BlackBerry and Manulife Financial, describes his job in several ways: provincial hype man, corporate interlocutor, ministerial tour guide, cross-border bridge builder. He is a motormouth on trade and investment.

Paterson spoke to POLITICO Canada about what he's up to amid so much upheaval in American politics.

— Friend and neighbor: Paterson's office is on the third floor of the Canadian embassy. A familiar face is nearby. "My next door neighbor is JAMES RAJOTTE from Alberta," he says. "James is an old friend. I used to lobby James when I was in the auto sector."

Rajotte was once a fishbowl fixture, earning acclaim as a longtime chair of the House finance committee. That's where Paterson got to know him. Rajotte was first to congratulate Paterson after his appointment. The message: "We're going to have so much fun.”

Quebec's office, headed by BENJAMIN BÉLAIR, is a 25-minute walk down the street — nearer than the White House, but still nowhere near the embassy's envious proximity to Capitol Hill.

The three provincial reps compare notes and find common cause as they navigate the city, Paterson says, adding they prioritize economics over everything.

— How to collab with the feds: “I love working with KIRSTEN HILLMAN," Paterson says of Canada's top envoy. "We bumped into each other all over town in Chicago" during the Democratic National Convention. They also attended the Republican convention.

→ But, but, but: "We're not joined at the hip. We both have our own jobs to do." Paterson doesn't take a lot of meetings with his federal cousins. Still, he leverages the brainpower just a floor above: "There's a lot of expertise there."

→ Friends in Ottawa: Paterson counts Trade Minister MARY NG as a friend, and has known the PM’s deputy chief of staff, BRIAN CLOW, a long time: "There's a lot of trust there."

— Queen's Park on the line: Paterson calls Ontario Economic Development Minister VIC FEDELI "one of the best sales guys I've ever seen." He texts with Fedeli and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE. He checks in with Premier DOUG FORD and senior bureaucrats in Toronto.

→ Key advice: "Don't be necessarily drawn into the politics — you don't get to vote," he tells Ontarians back home. "Let Americans make those decisions, and trust in them to do it."

→ Get in line: The province tapped Capitol Counsel, a bipartisan lobbying firm, to help Paterson make Ontario's case in a crowded field of Washington stakeholders. "You're in a lineup with people from Europe, Africa, Asia," he says.

— Future focus: Paterson swears he's not swallowed up by short-term politics. He frames his pitch to Americans with a longer-term view: "How do we build this North American economy in the most efficient and effective way, given that we're your balanced trade partner on the northern border?”

— Parting thought: The former GM exec often travels around town by bicycle. "Ironically," he says, "I'm living there without a car."

Pro subscribers can read our extended Q&A with Paterson.

PABLO OUT — Another secure Liberal vote has bit the dust. Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ has gone independent, leaving his Cabinet post (shortly after an Air Canada labor stoppage was averted) and dropping from the Liberal caucus as he eyes leadership of the Quebec Liberals.

He’ll sit as an independent until he launches his leadership campaign in January, remaining in the House to “avoid a costly by-election a few weeks or months before a general election.”

— Call in the replacements: Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND will do double duty for now by taking on Transport duties. Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS is the next Quebec lieutenant.

→ Roster refresh: As Playbook predicted Thursday, the prime minister's website pinged with (minimal) updates to Cabinet committees. For now, nobody replaces former ministers SEAMUS O'REGAN and PABLO RODRIGUEZ at most of the tables they occupied.

GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR joined the Treasury Board in place of O'Regan. GUDIE HUTCHINGS now chairs the working group on regulatory efficiency for clean growth projects. STEVEN MACKINNON is a new face there.

— More politicking: Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT is calling on the Bloc to help the Conservatives defeat the Liberal government on a confidence vote because of Quebec’s ongoing negotiations with the federal government on immigration. But the Bloc dug in its heels once more.

Legault has also asked Parti Québécois Leader PAUL ST-PIERRE PLAMONDON to pressure the Bloc, which has opted to support the Liberal government in a confidence vote next week.

A message from UnSmoke Canada:

The best option is always to quit nicotine and tobacco use altogether, but smokers who choose not to quit should also be aware that alternatives exist. These alternatives still contain nicotine and are addictive. But, for those adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke, smoke-free alternatives provide an option that does not involve combustion - or "burning" - like smoking a cigarette does. Legislation can change how smoke-free products are regulated.

CONFIDENT THIS TIME — Goss has been flying around Ottawa about election timing at breakneck speeds. A Liberal fundraising email Wednesday suggested “we could be in a federal election next week.” It all seemed very urgent … until it didn’t.

Both the Bloc and NDP put a swift end to all that, saying they will back the Liberals next week. Poilievre accused Singh of taping the supply-and-confidence agreement back together once recent by-elections finished.

— Sooner rather than later: The Conservatives will get a second crack at a non-confidence pressure play as early as Thursday next week, since House Leader KARINA GOULD scheduled not one but two (!) oppo days.

The Conservatives will have to give notice of the wording two days in advance, per the House standing orders. The first was a straightforward and direct motion of no confidence. A fun question: Will they have more fun with the next one?

PHILIPPE BOLDUC of Wellington Advocacy, former chief of staff to former Tory House Leader GÉRARD DELTELL, tells Playbook he might’ve gone with something more pointed: "The House has no confidence in His Majesty's loyal government, which forced workers back to work."

— Hooked on procedure: There’s a total of seven oppo days in the fall where simple confidence motions could potentially topple the government. Plus, many more chances for shenanigans and posturing aside from those — such as amending bills at report stage into matters of confidence.

— The most likely trigger: “The [spring] budget is kind of the obvious place for this to all go down. The Liberals might even engineer it themselves,” Bolduc suggested to Playbook.

WHAT IF THERE’S AN OOPSIE? — The Liberals have been pretty confident this Parliament, typically secured from defeat by a 20ish vote cushion.

But with the NDP no longer joined at the hip, and the Liberals slowly bleeding away seats, what happens when the pressure ramps up? And what about if the math starts to get weird, and all those times when no one’s paying close attention to proceedings…?

— Count ’em up: The House standings are now: 153 LPC, 119 CPC, 33 BQ, 25 NDP, 2 GPC, and 4 Independents (Rodriguez + former Liberals HAN DONG and KEVIN VUONG + former Tory ALAIN RAYES).

— About those numbers: So far, so good. None of the parties but the Conservatives is jonesing for an early election just yet.

But what about the curious case where the NDP might abstain on a confidence matter (say, one about labor rights), and the Bloc feels inclined to push the envelope (say, on Quebec)? Things start to get close, since CPC+BQ=152 — just one vote shy of that Liberal count. Oof.

— Surprisingly precedented: Sudden elections have happened in the past. Take 1979, when former PM JOE CLARK lost a crucial budget vote because he didn’t have the numbers.

— Playbook’s favorite: In 1926, Progressive MP THOMAS BIRD dozed off during proceedings,so the story goes, and when he woke up to a vote, he forgot he was paired (i.e. not supposed to vote to account for an MP on the other side who was unable to cast theirs). Bird brought down the government by accident.

He asked to take his vote back, per Hansard, but the House speaker denied him (FYI, MPs).

— Fun, yet unlikely: “The parties will tell us. They'll tell us beforehand. There's no confidence vote where you actually don't really know the outcome,” Bolduc tells Playbook.

But then there are those rare occasions. In 2005, Independent MP CHUCK CADMAN decided just 30 minutes before a key vote to prop up the minority government of former Liberal PM PAUL MARTIN.

Plus, the party whips will put a bit of stick about.

“The whips are good enough at their jobs to know when this is going to happen or not. Especially when you add in the voting app and people can vote from wherever,” he added. “Any party that allows that to happen [by accident] is incompetent.”

— Reminder: Parliament still has hybrid voting, meaning MPs can cast votes from their smart phones instead of sprinting into the chamber to prevent a catastrophe — like that time in the early days of the Trudeau government, when they almost lost a transport bill known as C-10 when the opposition sprung surprise procedural tricks.

And it’s not 1926 anymore.

A message from UnSmoke Canada:

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Montreal to take part in an armchair discussion on AI.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto with no public-facing events.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has not released a public itinerary.

— Playbook does not have a schedule for Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET.

—NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH has not shared his plans publicly.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY attends the Congress of Aboriginal Peoples general assembly in Ottawa in the morning. In the evening, May will speak at a charity dinner and roast for SHEILA COPPS in Cornwall.

— Trade Minister MARY NG is in Laos for the ASEAN Economic Ministers meetings.

— Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY co-hosts a women foreign ministers’ meeting with Jamaica’s Foreign Minister KAMINA JOHNSON SMITH in Toronto.

— Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE headlines a Liberal fundraiser at a convention center in Scarborough, Ont.

8:30 a.m. Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM addresses the National Bureau of Economic Research at its economics of artificial intelligence conference in Toronto.

1:30 p.m. ET (10:30 a.m. PT) Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON and Yukon Premier RANJ PILLAI make a funding announcement in Vancouver on critical minerals infrastructure projects.

Up: JAGMEET SINGH, spared from the embarrassment of having to immediately prop up the government thanks to YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET.

Down: The hecklers that MICHAEL COOPER is distancing himself from — and whom Singh had scared the beans out of earlier this week.

MOMENT WITH MACRON — PMJT gets to take a break from bruising headlines about bleeding support and by-election losses, and look prime ministerial once again, as he rubs elbows with fellow G7 greybeard French President EMMANUEL MACRON.

 The PMO finally announced the visit Thursday: Sept. 25-26, fresh off the heels of Trudeau’s U.N. trip, with stops in Ottawa and Montreal. This will mark Macron’s second visit to Canada since being elected, with the first being the G7 summit in 2018.

The two will share a one-on-one dinner the first night, per Macron’s officials. In Montreal, Macron will meet with Acadian novelist ANTONINE MAILLET and Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT.

— Shared priorities: Collective defense and the war in Ukraine. Disinformation. AI technology and the G7 AI framework, since both countries will hold the G7 presidency back-to-back in 2025 and 2026. And promoting the French language, which comes ahead of the Sommet de la Francophonie in France next month.

— Per the French press: “Several announcements are planned” that deal with the “relaunch of la Francophonie in Canada.”

— Shared problems: Macron shares something else in common with Trudeau: they’re both liberal world leaders with their political careers resting on the knife’s edge, facing constant questions about who their successor will be. Lots to talk about.

— Not on the agenda (yet): A meeting with PIERRE POILIEVRE.

— “There are really only three states that will decide the presidential election: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia,” writes JONATHAN MARTIN, POLITICO’s senior political columnist.

— “It’s time the Liberal caucus started flexing some muscle,” JUSTIN LING writes in the Star. “If Trudeau refuses to heed their advice, more of them ought to start making their concerns known publicly.”

— The Globe reports: RAYMOND CHUN’s appointment as TD Bank’s next CEO takes Bay Street by surprise.

— Lawyer STEWART CATTROLL says don’t believe what you read on social media about Treasury Board’s mandate to work in the office at least three days a week.

— The House defense committee will study former Defense Minister HARJIT SAJJAN’s order for the military to rescue a group of Afghan Sikhs in 2021, report The Globe and Mail's BOB FIFE and STEVE CHASE.

A message from UnSmoke Canada:

Governments should help adult smokers quit. But quite simply, for those who choose not to quit tobacco and nicotine altogether, openly recognizing the potential of smoke-free products such as nicotine pouches, vapes, and heated tobacco playing their part in smoking harm reduction is something Canada needs to consider when it comes to legislative change. Recent regulatory decisions implemented by the Minster of Health severely limit access to those adult smokers who are looking to make an informed decision that’s right for them. Learn more how Canada can become a global leader and accelerate change.

HOT TOPIC — Climate journalist ARNO KOPECKY was on the “Front Burner” pod this week to talk about Canada’s carbon tax.

“The idea of a carbon tax and a carbon price started out as a Conservative idea because it's a way to avoid regulations and let the market take care of problems on its own,” Kopeky said during a discussion about what comes next.

— His guess: “I think probably this is a requiem for the carbon tax. It is absolutely toxic now. So what do we do next? Maybe we can chat again after the next election and see where we're at.”

Birthdays: Former AFN National Chief PHIL FONTAINE turns 80 today.

Summa Strategies chair emeritus DOUG YOUNG and Quebec MNA ANDRÉS FONTECILLA also celebrate.

Saturday: Sen. MARIE-FRANÇOISE MÉGIE and non-senators JOE VOLPE, JOE SPINA and ED PICCO.

Sunday: Former chief of the defense staff MAURICE BARIL, and former MP GARY MERASTY.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send deets.

Congrats: GT and Co's COLE HOGAN and the Bank of Canada's ISABEL JENISH recently tied the knot.

Movers and shakers: Retired Ambassador BRUNO SACCOMANI is joining Wellington Advocacy’s Strategic Advisory Board. Saccomani was formerly Canada’s ambassador to Jordan and Iraq, and once superintendent of the protective detail for the prime minister.

Sandstone Group's KEVIN BOSCH will be announced today as the next chair of the Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy's board of directors. KATHRYN KOTRIS and ALEX LANTHIER will also join the board. On their agenda: next month's Pearson Leadership Awards gala.

Media mentions: National Post columnist JOHN IVISON has joined the world of Substack … Federal court has denied EZRA LEVANT’s right-wing activist Rebel News outlet from access to journalism tax credits because it doesn’t produce enough original content.

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from KYLE DUGGAN: Move-shake on Parliament Hill.

In other news for Pro readers: 

— JOHN KERRY tells gas industry to prove carbon capture is viable.

— Feds poised to approve lithium mine entangled with endangered flower.

— California insurers begin giving discounts for fire-proofed homes.

— Would KAMALA HARRIS kill the green dream of banning drilling on public lands?

— UK data regulator probing LinkedIn’s AI data scraping.

9 a.m. Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU will be at Lakehead University in Thunder Bay to announce investment for Indigenous-led projects across Northern Ontario.

6 p.m. International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN will be in Toronto to deliver remarks and announce Canada’s continued funding for supporting the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Thursday’s answer: On Sept. 19, 2000, Canadian Alliance Leader STOCKWELL DAY and JOE CLARK, newly elected in Kings-Hants, were welcomed to the House. (Clark, first elected in 1972, had previously been elected six times in Alberta.)

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, BRANDON RABIDEAU, NANCI WAUGH, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JACK HUGHES, RAY DEL BIANCO, YAROSLAV BARON, FRANCIS DOWNEY, DOUG RICE and LANA FAWCETT HELMAN. 

Friday’s question: Who offered BRIAN MU