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 | | By Robbie Gramer, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Nahal Toosi | |
Residents look on as rescuers arrive at the scene of an Israeli missile strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sept. 20, 2024. The airstrike was reportedly targeting a senior Hezbollah commander. | Hassan Ammar/AP | With help from Phelim Kine, Joe Gould, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The Biden administration has tried for nearly a year to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah. Now, that plan may be unraveling — and with it, the nightmare scenario of a regional war looks closer than ever.
An Israeli airstrike hit a Beirut suburb on Friday, reportedly targeting a senior Hezbollah commander. Hezbollah, meanwhile, launched hundreds of rockets into northern Israel even as it was reeling from the back-to-back pager and walkie-talkie attacks that constitute an unprecedented new chapter in Israel’s shadow war against the Iran-backed militia. Neither side appears to want a full-scale conflict, which — if it spirals — could draw in other groups or governments, such as Iran or even the U.S. But that doesn’t mean the two sides won’t stumble into one. U.S. officials and other experts familiar with internal U.S. and Israeli government thinking said that these latest attacks mark the beginning of a wider Israeli military campaign to degrade Hezbollah’s warfighting capabilities in southern Lebanon. This campaign will likely include more strikes against Hezbollah munitions depots, targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders and targeting of Hezbollah’s remaining communications infrastructure, as we report with our colleague ERIN BANCO. (The officials were granted permission to speak on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government deliberations.) Israel’s military has said it already killed around 10 senior Hezbollah commanders in its strikes so far, and officials widely agree that more strikes are imminent in the coming hours and days. “Both sides think they can increase the tempo of attacks and pressure while still keeping it below the threshold of a full-scale war,” said FIRAS MAKSAD of the Middle East Institute. “But at this point, nothing is guaranteed.” Back in Washington, the White House said it is working to avert war in what’s become an exhausting and repetitive routine for the Biden administration’s top Middle East envoys. “We still believe that there is time and space for a diplomatic solution,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said Friday. “We think that that is the best way forward. War is not inevitable up there at the blue line, and we're going to continue to do everything we can to try to prevent it.” The latest escalation threatens to overshadow President JOE BIDEN’s plan for a valedictory diplomatic tour in the coming week, starting with a meeting of Quad leaders in his home state of Delaware (more on that below), and then a major speech at the U.N. General Assembly next week. In New York, the U.N. Security Council convened on Friday for an emergency debate on the brewing crisis in Lebanon ahead of UNGA. This follows a vote by the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday demanding Israel end its “unlawful presence” in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
That vote was entirely symbolic but served to isolate the United States and Israel on the world stage — 124 countries in the 193-member world body voted for it and only 14 — including the United States and Israel — voted against it. (43 countries abstained.) The Biden administration is becoming increasingly frustrated with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s government as it scrambles to respond to the latest crisis along the Israel-Lebanon border and slogs through more cease-fire negotiations on Gaza. But Israel still has allies on Capitol Hill — including in Biden’s Democratic party — who argue that Hezbollah is to blame for the latest escalation. "We don't want there to be a regional war,” Rep. JARED MOSKOWITZ (D-Fla.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said today on CNN. “We don't want the war to expand between Hezbollah and Israel, but Israel has no choice obviously, but to move Hezbollah back away from Israel’s border to reinstall deterrence.”
| | BIDEN’S QUAD AGENDA: The leaders of the Quad alliance are gathering this weekend in the First State for a last summit with Biden, and the former president has a packed agenda ahead of him. Biden will meet with Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE this afternoon in Wilmington. He’ll meet with Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA Saturday morning and with Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI early Saturday afternoon. The leaders will also appear together at a plenary session and an event for Biden’s Cancer Moonshot. As our own PHELIM KINE previewed in Thursday’s China Watcher, the leaders will likely spend a great deal of time discussing threats from China to security in the Indo-Pacific. All eyes will be on overtures from India. “China's recent maritime aggression could be changing the equation for India, and could be prompting India to become a bit more open to the idea of Quad security cooperation,” said LISA CURTIS of the Center for a New American Security. The leaders will also discuss cooperation on climate change and technology. And the gathering is poised to be defined as much by its substantive talk as by the intimacy of its surroundings. Biden is hosting informal meetings with the world leaders at his Wilmington home, and he plans on dining with the trio at his high school Saturday evening. (Eric will be reporting on the ground from Wilmington, so stay tuned to see if he gets to join Biden for his high school reunion.)
And it’s all with an eye to Biden cementing some foreign policy wins in his final months in office. “I think this meeting really is about President Biden's legacy,” said Curtis. “Elevating the Quad and making sure a key pillar of the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy will be a strong legacy for President Biden.” IRAQ WITHDRAWAL PLANS: The U.S. will announce plans next week for the withdrawal of remaining troops in Iraq and Syria, our own PAUL McLEARY reports. The plans are still being negotiated, U.S. officials told reporters, and the fight continues against remnants of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, but the U.S. presence will change to better match the threat posed by the militant group. WITH SOME HELP FROM HAVANA’S FRIENDS: Thirty-five former heads of state and government sent a letter to Biden urging him to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. In the letter shared with NatSec Daily, the leaders argue that Washington’s decision to remove Havana from a list of countries not fully cooperating with terrorism should have prompted Cuba’s removal from the state sponsors of terrorism list. Among the signatories are ex-Argentine President and Vice President CRISTINA FERNÁNDEZ DE KIRCHNER, ex-Brazilian President DILMA ROUSSEFF, ex-Bolivian leader EVO MORALES and ex-Spanish Prime Minister JOSÉ LUIS RODRIGUEZ ZAPATERO. “How can it be asserted, at the same time, that a country cooperates in the global fight against terrorism while simultaneously accusing it of openly supporting it?” the leaders state. They add that the designation is exacerbating a worsening economic crisis in the island.
The designation remains a sticking point between Havana and Washington in conversations about repairing ties between the two countries. The Biden administration has not committed either way to a review of the designation. And critics of Cuba’s government argue that Cuba should be kept on the list in light of its “destabilizing actions” in Latin America, in particular its support for Venezuela and Nicaragua’s increasingly authoritarian governments. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring DYLAN WHITE, NATO’s representative to the United Nations. Dylan said his “go-to drink at the bar or on a plane is a gin & tonic — refreshing, assertive, citrusy — what’s not to love?” “Otherwise, 10 years in Brussels taught me to appreciate Belgian beers like Westmalle Tripel and Tripel Karmeliet,” he added.
But with the wave of work coming his way in New York as UNGA kicks off, he said he’s sticking to the lighter options for now. “My favorite soft drink has always been ginger ale. When I was a kid growing up in Toronto, my dad used to say to anyone drinking too much of anything: 'You’re drinking Canada Dry!' Get it…? I’ll show myself out.” NatSec Daily always appreciates a good dad joke, so cheers to you Dylan!
IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND! Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: What matters to us is protecting what matters most.
Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more. | | | | | TRUMP’S OUT OF MIND: There’s a lot of angst around the prospect of a second DONALD TRUMP presidency at multilateral institutions. But unlike the United Nations or NATO, the Quad could be immune from a massive Trump-era shakeup, officials and experts said. Former Australian diplomat JANE HARDY told our own PHELIM KINE that the Quad, though “turbocharged” by Biden’s personal engagement, “now has its own momentum grounded across the region in various projects and initiatives” that can survive changes in government. And even without Biden’s “turbocharging” personal touch, the Quad will live on, other former officials argued. “Personalities always matter. Personal chemistry always matters. But I think there are systems in each of these four countries which will carry forth [Quad] policy which is good for those countries beyond individual personalities,” said NAVTEJ SARNA, India’s former ambassador to the United States. It’s also worth remembering that Trump revived the alliance, said SUSAN THORNTON, who served as acting assistant secretary of State in his administration. “Both U.S. administrations will continue it in large part because it’s viewed as containing China,” she argued.
| | VAGUELY STRONG ACTION: The State Department announced Friday that it is imposing visa restrictions on certain individuals involved in developing or selling spyware — but didn’t give details around who that actually is, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said in a statement that the individuals targeted by the action “have facilitated or derived financial benefit from the misuse of this technology, which has targeted journalists, human rights defenders, activists and government officials from around the world.” The State Department declined to give more details on who exactly those individuals were or where they were when asked, citing confidentiality and privacy restrictions.
The Biden administration has been ramping up actions against people and companies behind illicit spyware programs, and will be working at UNGA next week to expand the list of nations signed on to a pledge not to misuse spyware technologies.
| | | |   | | | | | MORE INDO-PACIFIC ALIGNMENT: South Korea signaled support for Manila on Friday in its efforts to face down China’s increasingly aggressive incursions into Philippine waters of the South China Sea, Phelim writes in. Seoul is considering a “visiting forces agreement” with the Philippines that may allow the presence of South Korean troops in the Philippines, South Korean ambassador LEE SANG-HWA told reporters Friday. “The Korean side has been considering giving thought to the idea of visiting forces [deal]…it’s on the table,” Lee said. The potential agreement comes as China’s neighbors grow increasingly anxious over Beijing’s provocations and aggressive moves in contested waters like the South China Sea.
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BACON SIZZLING ON UKRAINE WEAPONS LIMITS: Fresh off a bipartisan visit to Ukraine last weekend, Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) is adamant the U.S. must ease restrictions on using U.S.-donated weapons to strike into Russian territory, arguing the Biden administration is "making the Ukrainians fight with one arm behind their back." Bacon told our colleague CONNOR O'BRIEN in an interview (for Pros!) that Ukrainian leaders lawmakers met with, from President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY on down, are chafing at the limits. "He was pretty clear the restrictions do not help Ukraine and it prolongs the war," Bacon said of Zelenskyy. "It costs Ukrainian lives. And we've got to take the war to Russia." The Nebraska Republican also said Ukrainian officials pressed the lawmakers to step up sanctions on Russia and to continue training to raise the qualifications of their F-16 pilots.
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AXIS OF CRINGE? A prominent House Democrat is warning that foreign adversaries are rapidly outpacing U.S. efforts to combat disinformation. Oh, and that warning comes with a new acronym for the bad guys. Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash), ranking member of the House Armed Service Committee, warned that in a talk at the Center for a New American Security today that China, Russia, Iran North Korea and “Global Extremists,” — or CRINGE, as he calls them — are making inroads in developing countries with their anti-American messaging.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Prepared for tomorrow. Ready for today.
Building a better world means developing the next generation of defense tech. We’re redefining what it means to be ready, so tomorrow’s challenges can be overcome today. Learn more. | | | | | — FILIP JOTEVSKI is now national diaspora and ethnic engagement director for the Harris campaign. He most recently was special adviser in USAID’s Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance, and also used to work at the DNC. — BRITTANY HAMZY is now digital policy research officer at the Center for International Media Assistance, a National Endowment for Democracy initiative that works to promote independent media in emerging democracies and developing economies. She most recently was senior information integrity officer at the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. — Former DOD Comptroller TINA JONAS has joined the board of directors at Leidos. — Academy Securities added retired Adm. PATRICK WALSH, the former U.S. Pacific Fleet commander, to its advisory board and geopolitical intelligence group.
| | — MICHAEL SCHAFFER, POLITICO: Trashing the Saudis has gone out of style. Is a golf deal to blame? — LILI PIKE, Foreign Policy: How does the U.S.-China ‘Cold War’ end? — JOSH ROGIN, Washington Post: “Why am I being singled out?” a Russian state media pundit asks — STEVEN ERLANGER and JENNY GROSS, The New York Times: Europe’s new defense chief: ‘A King Without a Kingdom’?
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— Council on Foreign Relations, 2:45 p.m.: A conversation with President BERNARDO ARÉVALO of Guatemala — Council on Foreign Relations, 6 p.m.: A conversation with General CQ BROWN, Jr. — Council on Foreign Relations, 7:30 p.m.: Russell C. Leffingwell lecture with Foreign Minister ANDRII SYBIHA of Ukraine Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is rallying her own axis of CRINGE against us. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who is ready to join our axis of cool. CORRECTION: Thursday’s newsletter misstated the date of the Atlantic Council gala where Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will be honored. The gala will take place on Sept. 23. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us
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