• In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady at the Yale CEO Caucus finds corporate leaders are miserable about Trump’s trade program.
• The big story: Ukraine accepts peace plan, but tariff war heats up.
• The markets: A dead-cat bounce or the return of the bulls?
• Analyst notes from Wedbush on losing patience with Elon Musk, Goldman Sachs on downgrading U.S. GDP, and Convera on equities.
• Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. How quickly CEO optimism has turned. I’m just back from the Yale CEO Caucus in Washington, where 100 CEOs gathered with 60 big-city mayors, policymakers, and journalists like me to talk off the record about “navigating Trump 2.0.” Gone is the optimistic dream of economic growth spurred by Trump’s pro-business mindset around taxes and regulation. In its place is the grave uncertainty of not knowing what this administration will do next. As the host, Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, noted afterward, the consensus was one of bewilderment, condemnation and a feeling that “Trump’s policies were bad for the U.S. economy.”
Though the attendees identified as 60% Republican to 40% Democrat, the mood was dour. In a flash poll at the summit, 80% of CEOs said they find themselves “apologizing to our international partners for Trump’s capriciousness.” Eighty-five percent oppose his approach to tariffs and think they’re backfiring. Almost all—92%—are now concerned about recession. Indeed, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist just downgraded the entire U.S. economy. Here’s what else leaders were talking about in D.C.:
Opportunity costs – America is in a sweet spot when it comes to the depth of our technology, research institutions and capital markets—not to mention our rule of law and ability to draw top talent. Everyone wanted to come here to do business with the most vigorous economy on earth. CEOs I spoke to worry that we’re getting distracted by paper enemies.
Talent challenges – To address a skills shortage, you invest in education. Instead, we’re cutting funding in the name of DOGE and allegations of antisemitism. CEOs now face having to try and create more jobs with fewer tools to train the people to fill them.
The consumer – U.S. consumers tend to be a remarkably productive, resilient and optimistic bunch. Their hunger to travel, buy homes, educate themselves and make merry has sustained 70% of the U.S. economy—and a lot of economies elsewhere, too. CEOs are watching this closely, but many I spoke to expressed a fear that anger, inflation, and uncertainty aren’t going to spur spending.
And, of course, there’s the challenge of rebuilding trust. One Fortune 500 CEO—who was headed off to a Business Roundtable meeting with Trump—told me he’s stopped making predictions entirely: “I don’t trust that what’s said today will be true tomorrow.”
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
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State of the US Consumer: Winter 2025 Deloitte's ConsumerSignals highlighted an uptrend in financial well-being sentiment, but uncertainty around spending confidence remains. Explore insights here
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Ukraine ceasefire? Kyiv said it was willing to accept a 30-day ceasefire brokered by the U.S. As a result, Washington said it would restore military aid and intelligence to Ukraine. We’re waiting to see if Moscow will accept the terms (BBC live blog here). It’s not clear whether the mineral deal is part of the pact.
Steel tariff war begins. The president imposed a 25% tax on foreign steel and aluminum entering the U.S. starting today. The EU immediately responded with a series of “countermeasures” imposing a variety of duties on $28 billion of U.S. metal exports to Europe. There are also a series of new taxes on American bourbon, boats, and motorcycles.
Trump doubled the tariffs for Canada. New taxes of 50% will now apply to Canada, after the U.S.’s northern neighbor angered the president when the regional government of Ontario raised electricity prices (which in itself was a response to the trade war Trump started). The president again suggested that Canada become the 51st state of the union and, in a post on Truth Social, called the border an “artificial line of separation drawn many years ago.”
Tesla mega-bull angered. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, a longtime believer in the EV maker, says his patience with Elon Musk is “wearing very thin,” after TSLA stock dropped more than half its value from its all-time high. In a note to clients he said, “We have seen Musk and Trump connected at the hip with Musk essentially living at the White House and Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. There has been little to no sign of Musk at any Tesla factory or manufacturing facility the last two months and perception has become reality for Tesla shares.”
Kohl’s stock slumps on poor sales. Retailer Kohl's share price dropped to its lowest since 1995 on Tuesday after reporting a 6.7% drop in comparable sales during the holiday season. Ashley Buchanan, a retail veteran and the company’s new CEO, must reinvent the brand or risk losing more market share to competitors like Target.
The vision of Unilever’s new CEO. New Unilever CEO Fernando Fernandez laid out his plans for the Dove parent company for the first time last week in a conversation that centered around boosting the company’s social media marketing and content creation strategy. “Messages of brands coming from corporations are suspicious messages,” Fernandez said.
Meta accused of working with China on censorship. The former global public policy director at Facebook accused Mark Zuckerberg and the company of working with the Chinese government to censor content on the social media platform. The accusations, which include claims that the company developed a tool to shut down the site during periods of unrest, are included in a whistleblower complaint filed with the SEC.
Greenland election result! In a surprise victory, the liberal “independence but slowly” party Demokraatit won national elections, with 30% of the vote. The “independence but faster” party Naleraq came second. It was a surprise defeat for the ruling Ataqatigiit party (“pro-independence but in a left-wing way”).
The markets
• The S&P 500 lost 0.76% yesterday to close at 5,572.07. The Nasdaq Composite was flat at 17,436.10. But there were signs that investors were selectively buying back into the market: Reddit was up 14%, Coinbase was up 7% and Palantir gained 2%. Markets in Europe, Japan, and the U.K. were all solidly up this morning. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 were up 0.57% this morning, pre-market. Today’s question for the U.S. indexes: Is this a dead-cat bounce or did the bulls return?
From the analysts
• Goldman Sachs downgrades U.S. GDP: “We have downgraded our 2025 US GDP growth forecast from 2.4% at the start of the year to 1.7% now (both on a Q4/Q4 basis). This is our first below-consensus forecast in 2½ years. … the reason for the downgrade is that our trade policy assumptions have become considerably more adverse and the administration is managing expectations towards tariff-induced near-term economic weakness,” per Jan Hatzius.
• Convera on equities: “US stocks are headed for their worst start to a presidential term since 2009, weighed down by recession fears and uncertainty around tariffs,” per George Vessey.
• Wedbush on tech stocks: “The constant unrelenting news flow coming out of the Trump White House is unnerving to many growth investors we speak with around the world with white knuckle worries around what is around the corner. We have been on the phone with investors constantly over the last week walking through the scenarios for the Mag 7 and AI Revolution and why we remain firmly bullish and believe tech stocks will ultimately make new all-time highs during the second half of 2025 despite a disaster panicked sell-off to start the year,” per Daniel Ives et al.
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