What to know:
By James Van Straten (All times are ET unless indicated otherwise)
Macroeconomic factors continue to drive bitcoin's (BTC) short-term price volatility as it holds steady above $80,000, with a wave of significant news emerging over the past 24 hours. |
Still, there's a risk-off feeling in the air as the divergence between bitcoin and the broader crypto market grows. Bitcoin dominance has surged to 62%, approaching a year-to-date high, while the ether-to-bitcoin (ETH-BTC) ratio has turned negative on a four-year compound annual basis, meaning ETH is underperforming.
Meanwhile, Trump’s trade wars persist as another concern reining in optimism in the market. That's not just with Canada, but also in the form of metal tariffs, prompting retaliatory measures from the European Union.
One of the most intriguing developments comes from Canada, where newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney has filed to sell U.S. dollar bonds. While the size of the sale remains undisclosed, it's worth noting the country is the sixth-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, possessing $379 billion as of the end of 2024. If the sale proceeds, it could put upward pressure on yields, which is the opposite of what Trump wants.
The Treasury yield narrative is paramount because roughly $9 trillion worth of U.S. debt is set to mature or require refinancing this year alone. This is one of the key reasons why the U.S. administration is eager to bring down Treasury yields.
More immediately, market attention is turning to today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with risk-asset bulls hoping for a softer inflation print. The S&P 500 is hovering around correction territory, down nearly 10%. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, risk assets could face further downside. Stay Alert! |
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Crypto Macro - March 12, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February consumer price inflation data.
- Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.3% vs. Prev. 0.16%
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Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5% vs. Prev. 4.56%
- March 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February consumer price inflation data.
- Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
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Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3.3%
- Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.5%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3%
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March 12, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada announces its interest-rate decision followed by a press conference (livestream link) 45 minutes later.
- Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% vs. Prev. 3%
- March 12, 12:00 p.m.: Russia's Federal State Statistics Service releases February consumer price inflation data.
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Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 1.2%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 10.1% vs. Prev. 9.9%
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February producer price inflation data.
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Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
- Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.6%
- PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
- PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5%
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) - March 12 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.03
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March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05
- March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38
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- March 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.93% of circulating supply worth $58.26 million.
- March 14: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $10.67 million.
- March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.35 million.
- March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $31.53 million.
- March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.60 million.
- March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $12.70 million.
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March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
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