President John F. Kennedy told reporters in 1963 that he had a haunting feeling about the future of nuclear weapons in the world. He said he could, by the next decade, envision “a world in which 15 or 20 or 25 nations may have these weapons. I regard that as the greatest possible danger and hazard.” That, of course, was not how the next 60 years unfolded. Today, just nine nations possess nuclear weapons, compared with four in Kennedy’s day. Perhaps the primary reason for this success is America’s longstanding policy of promising more than 30 Asian and European allies safety under its nuclear umbrella in exchange for not developing their own arsenals. Known as “extended deterrence,” the policy held through the darkest days of the Cold War. But as I write today in Opinion, confidence in America’s extended deterrence policy may never have been on as shaky ground as it is today. Less than two months into President Trump’s second term, European allies seem spooked. Trump’s questioning of America’s support for Ukraine in its war with Russia has prompted European leaders to rethink their reliance on the United States in a future existential struggle. In recent days, several have spoken publicly about the need to seek alternatives to the United States’ sizable arsenal. The uneasiness has triggered fresh concerns about more nations going nuclear on their own, creating more weapons and more instability across the globe. Over the past year, Times Opinion explored many contemporary issues surrounding nuclear weapons for our series “At the Brink.” The new administration’s actions underscore how important it is to avoid getting complacent about the rising — and enduring — threats that these weapons pose. Trump may yet reverse this course, but if he doesn’t, we all may see his predecessor’s dark prediction become reality. Read more:
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