Good morning. We explain how Trump is inadvertently helping some liberal leaders abroad. We’re also covering a possible government shutdown, the U.S. economy and Covid’s fifth anniversary.
Rally ’round the flag
President Trump’s trade war is escalating. Yesterday, the European Union and Canada announced billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. There’s a good reason nations are fighting back: Opposing Trump is helping world leaders domestically. Trump’s methods — insisting on tariffs, threatening to buy territory, insulting allies — have infuriated voters in Britain, Mexico, Ukraine and elsewhere. In Canada, for instance, the Liberal Party mounted an extraordinary comeback against the Conservatives this week. Mark Carney, the incoming prime minister, helped revive his party with a promise to oppose Trump: “Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form,” Carney said of the president’s threat to annex his country. “Make no mistake. In trade as in hockey, Canada will win.”
Trump has given some populations abroad an adversary to mobilize against. Now they’re backing leaders who take a stand against him. It’s a phenomenon known in political science as the “rally ’round the flag” effect. When a country faces a crisis, public support for the leader or the current governing party often rises. Below, I’ll explain how Trump’s antagonism is actually helping some of his opponents. What is happeningTrump is fracturing America’s alliances. But the world leaders involved? They’re doing fine. Trump imposed global tariffs on metal and announced a 25 percent levy on all goods from Mexico and Canada. He fought with Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. Soon after, the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, welcomed Zelensky in London with a hug. Mr. Starmer has continued to back Ukraine. In each of these cases, the leaders and parties who stood up to Trump saw a lift in their domestic approval ratings, as my colleague Mark Landler has noted. Canada: The governing Liberals were set for a major election defeat. But in the last few weeks, as Trump instituted tariffs, the party’s polling has rebounded by at least 10 points. In the race for prime minister, Carney is now tied — and running ahead in some polls. The escalating trade war may simply induce Canadians to dig in.
Mexico: President Claudia Sheinbaum, the country’s leftist leader, saw her support rise to 80 percent in one poll as she negotiated with Trump on tariffs. Tens of thousands rallied in Mexico City last weekend to celebrate her success in delaying the levies. Britain: Starmer has been careful to stay close to Trump. He hasn’t retaliated on tariffs. But he loudly backed Zelensky after Trump withdrew support for the war. As a result, the prime minister’s ratings rose. British voters now see Starmer’s Labour Party as better at dealing with foreign policy and defense challenges than the Conservative Party is. (Voters usually regard the Conservatives as better at defense.) Ukraine: Zelensky’s fight with Trump may have saved his job. As the war dragged on, his political opponents saw an opportunity to oust him. After his trip to Washington, his approval ratings rose, according to two recent polls, and his opponents have said publicly that now is not the time for elections. Why this is happeningPeople don’t like to ditch their leaders in a crisis, research shows. The rallying phenomenon can shift the balance of power both within and between countries. Several current spats qualify, said Matthew Baum, a public policy professor at Harvard: “Is national honor challenged? Check. Is a country’s security threatened? Check. Has a single adversary emerged? Check.” The inverse is also true in cases of weak leadership. In Colombia, President Gustavo Petro sparred with Trump over deportation flights. His decision to send back planes full of deportees surprised even his inner circle. Then Trump retaliated, ordering a 25 percent tariff on all Colombian goods and threatening to tank the country’s economy. Petro folded. His handling of the crisis fractured his governing coalition. “It’s hard for him to spin that he’s a strong leader standing up for the national honor,” Baum said. Perhaps Petro’s example offers Trump a way to overcome his most stubborn opponents. In Canada, for instance, Trump could eventually make it too costly for Carney to fight. In Brazil, a target of the metal tariffs, the government signaled that it would not retaliate. “President Lula said to remain calm at this time,” Brazil’s economy minister said. “We’ve negotiated under worse conditions than this.” What could happen nextTrump is focused on calling the shots. He seems to believe, The Times has reported, that forceful (and sometimes erratic) decisions give him an advantage against other nations in negotiations. In some ways, they do. Leaders elsewhere don’t get to set the agenda; they’re forced to react. That means the world is dealing on Trump’s terms, at least for now. Opposing Trump is a delicate art. Still, liberal leaders who do it well are finding success. That may not last: The rally effect is sometimes temporary. Covid initially increased domestic support for many world leaders, but their standing soon fell — in some cases to prepandemic levels. In the meantime, though, the leaders who get it right can expect a boost. For more
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