|
 |
Friends,
It seems as if the horrendous Trump news doesn’t end — and it doesn’t. We’ve barely endured just over seven weeks of his scourge and every day brings new awfulness.
But the worse it gets, the more Trump, Musk, and the rest of the oligarchy reveal themselves. And the more they reveal themselves — the more they abuse their wealth and power, side with Putin, trample civil liberties, and ride roughshod over the Constitution — the stronger the backlash against them will be.
Here’s this week’s summary of 10 reasons for very modest optimism.
1. The Trump slump is worsening.
The first reason for very modest optimism is the current bad economic news. Americans voted for Trump because they thought he’d fix the economy. Many are now suffering buyer’s remorse.
On Monday, in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports, China began imposing tariffs on a range of American farm products, including a 15 percent levy on chicken, wheat, and corn. This is already beginning to hurt the Farm Belt — mostly Republican states and Trump voters.
On Wednesday, after Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on all aluminum and steel imported into the U.S. went into effect, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on about $28 billion worth of products, including beef and whiskey — also mostly produced by Republican states (think Kentucky bourbon). Europe is also slapping tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, made in the Rust Belt.
In response this morning, Trump threatened a 200 percent tariff on all alcoholic products from EU member states. As a result, Trump voters — largely working-class — will be paying more.
Canada also announced new tariffs on about $21 billion worth of U.S. products.
What does this all mean for the economy?
In a Fox News interview that aired Sunday, Trump did not rule out the possibility that his policies would cause a recession. That possibility is growing by the day.
The stock market has continued to plummet. Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 1.4 percent; the index is now down 10.1 percent from its peak reached less than one month ago and in a “correction” — Wall Street slang for when an index falls 10 percent or more from its peak and when investors worried about a sell-off gathering steam.
Other major indexes, including the Russell 2000 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, were already in correction territory.
The rest of the economy isn’t far behind.
Last Friday’s jobs report showed employers adding 151,000 jobs in February — half as many as in November and December. Leisure and hospitality jobs have declined in the past two months, suggesting that consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending.
The labor force participation rate also fell 0.2 percentage points, to 62.4 percent, mostly due to declining employment among men. The number of workers employed part-time who wanted but couldn’t get full-time work increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million, the most since spring 2021.
CEOs’ assessment of American business conditions is the lowest since the spring of 2020. The New York Times monthly consumer survey finds households feeling gloomy about their year-ahead financial situations.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Monday that Americans are increasingly worried about the state of their finances. The perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months climbed to its highest level since April 2020, when the economy was in a Covid-19-related freefall.
Egg prices, an emerging symbol of America’s affordability crisis, jumped 10.4 percent last month after a big rise in January.
2. Trump’s support continues to tank.
The consequence of all this for Trump’s political support? It’s tanking. In the latest Emerson national poll, 46 percent of voters say his policies are making the economy worse rather than better, while 28 percent say the opposite (the rest had no opinion).
In a new CNN/SSRS poll, almost three-quarters of Americans view the current economic conditions in the U.S. as poor, 51 percent of the public say they think Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions, and just 28 percent say that his policies have improved things.
In the same poll, the share of Americans saying they expect the economy to be in bad shape a year from now is up 7 points since January, just before Trump took office.
Fifty-five percent of Americans surveyed say they fear Trump’s cuts to federal programs will negatively affect the economy, and just over 50 percent say that they will negatively affect their own families or local communities.
In a new YouGov poll, 48 percent of Americans think the economy is getting worse, up from 37 percent at the start of Trump's second term. Forty-seven percent expect higher inflation in six months — more than twice the share six months ago.
In the latest Quinnipiac poll, 54 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy; only 41 percent approve.
In a new CNN poll, 56 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy — higher than at any point during his first term. In addition, 61 percent disapprove of tariffs.
I don’t have huge trust in polls but when all major polls show the same thing, there’s reason to believe them.
3. Musk’s claimed savings don’t exist, and his businesses are going down the toilet.
Musk continues to claim big savings from his DOGE effort to take a chainsaw to government. But so far, the actual savings have proven to be tiny.
Soon there will be no way to tell, because Musk and DOGE have just stopped providing identifying details about the cuts — so there’s no way to fact-check them. Not only is this a major step backward from Musk’s promise that he’d be “maximally transparent,” but also it makes his claims of savings nothing but unverifiable propaganda.
DOGE has refused to answer Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests from journalists and watchdog groups. On Monday, though, a federal judge ruled that DOGE is likely subject to the FOIA — a win for journalists, watchdogs, and researchers who have demanded greater transparency. On Thursday, another judge ordered Musk and DOGE to turn over records and answer questions in response to a legal complaint filed by Democratic state attorneys general.
Meanwhile, Musk’s growing political power and his shift to the political hard right are damaging his businesses.
Consumers are boycotting Tesla. More than a dozen violent or destructive acts have been directed at Tesla facilities. Tesla’s stock has fallen by more than 35 percent since Trump’s inauguration; it’s down 50 percent since December.
Musk is so alarmed by this that he got Trump to hold a White House promotional event for Tesla this week — where Trump essentially read a Tesla sales pitch and lied that consumer boycotts are “illegal.”
In Germany, sales of Teslas plummeted 76 percent in February compared with a year earlier, according to figures released Wednesday.
Antipathy to Musk is also denting sales of his Starlink satellite internet business.
Musk raised alarms this past weekend when he wrote on X that Ukraine’s front line “would collapse” against Russian forces if Starlink were shut off.
Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, suggested that his country “will be forced to look for other suppliers” if Starlink is “unreliable.” Musk later told Sikorski to “be quiet, small man.”
Andrius Kubilius, the European Union commissioner overseeing defense and space, talked of quickly replacing Starlink if necessary.
Italy is having second thoughts about awarding a $1.6 billion contract to Starlink.
Over the past week, shares in Eutelsat — the French rival to Starlink — have more than tripled.
4. The FBI is moving to criminalize groups like Habitat for Humanity for receiving grants from the Environmental Protection Agency under the Biden administration.
I’m including this as a reason for optimism because it so clearly demonstrates just how absurd and extreme the Trump regime has become.
On Wednesday, Citibank revealed in a court filing that it was told to freeze Habitat for Humanity’s bank accounts, at the FBI’s request. The reason? The FBI alleges that the group is involved in “possible criminal violations,” including “conspiracy to defraud the United States.”
Habitat for Humanity, you may recall, is the group that builds low-income houses in America’s communities. Jimmy Carter worked with them for decades. What did they do to earn the FBI’s ire? They received a climate grant from the Biden administration’s EPA.
Other nonprofits also being targeted by the FBI for receiving climate grants include the Appalachian Community Capital Corporation, the Coalition for Green Capital, and the DC Green Bank.
Yet these groups’ applications for government grants for environmental work were fully reviewed and accepted by the Biden administration’s EPA.
This is not fraud. It’s targeted harassment. And it will be viewed that way by most Americans.
5. Trump’s “beautiful bill” is stranded.
Trump apparently believes that fees from his tariffs when added to savings from Musk’s budget cuts will enable him to finance another large tax cut mainly for big corporations and the wealthy.
Even if he’s correct (which seems extremely doubtful), those tariff fees are financed by American consumers who will be paying higher prices for imports and who’ll also be losing services because of Musk’s cuts. They are are largely working-class Trump voters. Talk about reverse Robin Hood.
Meanwhile, Republicans in control of the House and Senate are divided over the size of spending reductions that should accompany their pending tax cuts, which budgetary yardstick they use, and whether a debt-ceiling increase should be attached.
The Senate still hasn’t agreed to the House strategy to pass one bill that would address the fiscal matters along with border security, after months of debate over whether to split Trump’s priorities into two or even three party-line bills.
Until these questions are resolved with an agreement between House and Senate Republicans, Congress can’t unlock the door to the fast-track “reconciliation” process that circumvents Senate Democrats. And until they unlock that door — which could take weeks or months — Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill” is stranded.
6. Bernie is rallying the Democrats
On Friday night, Bernie Sanders drew a crowd of 4,000 in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in what he calls his “Stop Oligarchy Tour.” On Saturday morning, another 2,600 in Altoona, Wisconsin, a town of less than 10,000 residents. Then 9,000 in suburban Detroit, where United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain introduced him.
Each stop has been in a swing House district represented by a Republican.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will join Bernie on the road in the coming weeks. She’s also planning solo appearances in Republican-held congressional districts in Pennsylvania and New York and other districts where Republicans have declined to hold in-person town halls because they might face protests.
Elizabeth Warren and Greg Casar headlined a 3,500-person rally in Austin, Texas — the heart of Musk’s business empire.
Tim Walz and many House Democrats will host town halls in GOP districts where their Republican congressmen are avoiding town halls.
Bernie is showing Democratic lawmakers and prospective candidates how hungry Americans are for a strong counteroffensive against Trump and Musk — in contrast to Democratic political operative James Carville’s suggestion that Democrats “roll over and play dead,” and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s willingness to surrender to Republicans on the budget resolution.
7. A coalition of 21 Democratic attorneys general has sued Trump, and the federal courts are becoming even more active in stopping him.
On Thursday — two days after the Education Department fired more than 1,300 workers, purging people who administer grants and track student achievement across America — a coalition of Democratic attorneys general sued the Trump regime, saying that the dismissals were “illegal and unconstitutional.”
The coalition is seeking a court order to stop what it calls “policies to dismantle” the department.
Meanwhile, Judge Beryl Howell of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia condemned Trump’s executive order punishing law firms that have had Democratic clients, such as special counsel Jack Smith — denying their attorneys access to federal buildings and stripping them of government contracts.
On Thursday, U.S. District Judge William Alsup ordered federal agencies to rehire tens of thousands of probationary employees who have been fired by Trump. Judge Alsup described the mass firings as a “sham” strategy by Trump’s Office of Personnel Management to sidestep legal requirements for reducing the federal workforce.