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Poland once offered to build a Fort Trump. Now Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has a Trump problem.

For the leadership of a country that’s traditionally Washington’s staunchest European Union ally — some say a stalking horse — recent events have been bewildering.

Last weekend, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski got into a social-media spat with Elon Musk, which concluded with the billionaire adviser to US President Donald Trump dismissing Poland’s top diplomat as a “small man.”

Radosław Sikorski. Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg

Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined in to demand that Sikorski thank the US because without its help, Russia would be at Poland’s border (technically, it already is.)

Then, even before taking up his post, Trump’s new envoy in Warsaw, Tom Rose, threatened Poland with consequences if the government imposes a planned tax on US Big Tech companies.

There are domestic political issues at play: Tusk is a former top EU official who took on the president during Trump’s first term. Sikorski is married to writer Anne Applebaum, a prominent Trump critic.

Tusk moved to calm things down, calling on his ministers to show restraint.

But with little more than two months before Polish presidential elections, the pro-Trump opposition smells blood. Law & Justice party leaders have accused Tusk’s government of jeopardizing Poland’s US relations.

Their candidate, Karol Nawrocki, is floundering and the attack line seems far-fetched. But it illustrates Tusk’s challenge.

Warsaw has invested heavily in its Washington ties and has about 10,000 US troops stationed on its soil, a long-sought security goal. Its huge defense spending of almost 5% of economic output will largely go to US companies. A Westinghouse-led group is building Poland’s first nuclear-power plant.

That helps explain why Tusk, holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, wants to stay out of Trump’s crosshairs.

As US-Europe divisions grow, however, that transatlantic tightrope act can only get harder.— Piotr Skolimowski

Donald Tusk. Photographer: Simon Wohlfahrt/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on wine, champagne and other alcoholic beverages from France and elsewhere in the EU, the latest escalation in a growing transatlantic trade war. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that an increase in disputes over trade levies may have “severe consequences” for the world economy.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff’s plane left Moscow overnight after talks aimed at securing Russian agreement to a proposed ceasefire in Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin earlier warned that any truce should lead to a long-term resolution of the war. While the Trump administration tightened sanctions on Russia, European and Russian officials say the US is also exploring ways to work with energy giant Gazprom on global projects.

WATCH: Bloomberg Originals explores how Russia’s economy has endured years of sanctions.

In the span of two days this week, former Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte went from addressing a mass rally of supporters in Hong Kong to sitting glumly on a private jet delivering him to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, where he faces accusations of the extra-judicial killing of thousands when in office. Read this inside account of how the man known as “the punisher” was brought down by a bitter political feud with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

A demonstrator waves a Philippines national flag in front of the Hague Penitentiary Institution yesterday. Photographer: Lina Selg/AFP/Getty Images

China, Russia and Iran called for an end to sanctions in nuclear talks hosted by Beijing, days after Tehran spurned Trump’s call for negotiations. The three countries stressed the need to end all unilateral sanctions during the meeting in the Chinese capital today, and they also called on all sides to avoid escalation.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te labeled China a “foreign hostile force” for the first time as he unveiled wide-ranging measures to counter infiltration efforts, drawing an immediate rebuke from Beijing. He spoke hours before the 20th anniversary of a Chinese anti-secession law authorizing an attack on Taiwan if it declares independence.

Portugal will face an early election on May 18, its third in just three years, after parliament toppled Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s center-right minority government in a confidence vote.

The UK will provide £2 billion ($2.6 billion) of loans to allied governments to buy from British defense companies, the latest move by a European nation to boost investment in military capabilities under pressure from Trump.

A model of a Tempest, the UK’s new fighter jet. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Trump and key Senate Republicans are still grasping for a solution to the US government closing in on breaching its legal borrowing limit following a White House meeting yesterday. 

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba confirmed that he distributed gift vouchers to 15 lawmakers, raising questions about whether he skirted political funding laws and casting another cloud over his already weak position as support for his minority government sags.

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Chart of the Day

China’s economy likely showed stability in the first two months of the year, despite Trump starting a second trade war with Beijing. As policymakers keep stimulus in reserve for tariffs, data due Monday will show retail sales picking up and investment staying steady from 2024’s full-year figures, according to forecasts by economists in a Bloomberg survey.

And Finally

Birth rates are cratering in many countries, with governments trying to reverse the trend to avoid economic and social crises. Croatia’s population has dropped by a fifth to 3.8 million people since it gained independence after the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1991, with many people moving abroad for higher-paying jobs and those who have stayed having fewer or no children. But Prime Minister Andrej Plenković’sgovernment is one of the most active looking for solutions, and one of the most willing to accept migration as part of efforts to find a fix.

An elderly shopper arrives early for an open-air food market in Zagreb. Photographer: Petar Santini/Bloomberg

Pop quiz (no cheating!). Schools in the capital of which country are introducing artificial intelligence courses to primary and secondary students? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net   

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