• In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady talks to Publicis New York CEO Carla Serrano.
• The big story: Fear of recession pushed the U.S. stock markets into a correction.
• The markets: While the S&P 500 craters, indexes in Europe and China are doing well.
• Analyst notes from Goldman Sachs on the end of U.S. exceptionalism, UBS on inflation, JPMorgan on steel and war, and Apollo on the “wait-and-see economy.”
• Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. I was talking yesterday with Carla Serrano. Along with being CEO of Publicis New York and chief strategy officer of Publicis Groupe, she is a fellow Canadian and we were commiserating about the impact of the ongoing tariff war on a personal level. Her parents are reluctant to come to Fire Island in New York this summer because they’re so angry about the attacks on Canada’s sovereignty, not to mention its economy. “It’s unlocked a certain amount of pride for me,” she says. It’s also causing new headaches as “our clients are requiring not just a plan A, B or C but plans for a worst-case scenario where the world becomes much more isolated and nationalist and different alliances form.”
I will be speaking to Canadian tech leaders about the scenarios playing out in their minds next week when we host a private CTO/CIO dinner in Toronto. We are also hosting a dinner in New York on Tuesday, where former Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will share insights with about 40 global CEOs.
The power of live media is especially important right now as trust and relationships are best built face-to-face. I’m particularly excited about a series of dinners we are hosting with CEOs in their homes around the country through the Fortune CEO Initiative. Enterprise Mobility CEO Chrissy Taylor is hosting one in St. Louis in May, while Qualtrics CEO Zig Serafin is opening his home for a salon prior to Brainstorm Tech in Park City, Utah, in September, among others. (Serafin recently joined us for a live recording of Fortune’s Leadership Next podcast before a gathering of leaders at Deloitte’s Next Generation CEO program in Westlake, Texas. Here’s a link to our conversation.)
We’re also holding our first-ever Most Powerful Women International Summit in Riyadh in May. As my colleague and editor-in-chief Alyson Shontell wrote earlier this week: “At Fortune, the purpose of our journalism is to make business better and to serve as a powerful, authoritative voice pressing for progress. Given Saudi Arabia’s recent acceleration, particularly for women, we are excited to get closer to the action and document the progress there too.” (We are also hosting our flagship Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh on October 26 and 27.)
What better time to talk about what’s happening with peers in different industries and parts of the world. If you’re interested in learning more about the CEO Initiative, reach out to my colleague Sarah Worob at sarah.worob@fortune.com. And, of course, please keep sharing your stories, ideas, and feedback with me at the email address below.
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
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State of the US Consumer: Winter 2025 Deloitte's ConsumerSignals highlighted an uptrend in financial well-being sentiment, but uncertainty around spending confidence remains. Explore insights here
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Stocks enter a correction: The S&P 500 fell 1.4% yesterday, more than 10% below its all-time high from three weeks ago, falling into correction territory. “I think what the markets are telling us is that they are very concerned about the potential for a recession,” Invesco chief global market strategist Kristina Hooper said.
Tesla complained about tariffs. The extra taxes on trade will make it more expensive for Tesla to make cars in the U.S. and more difficult to export them for foreign sales, an unsigned but official company letter said. “It’s a polite way to say that the bipolar tariff regime is screwing over Tesla,” a source told the FT. “It is unsigned because nobody at the company wants to be fired for sending it.”
No more champagne. President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on French Champagne, wine and other European spirits, in response to European tariffs on U.S. steel and other metals, which was in turn in response to Trump’s original tariffs on European metals.
Meta does not want you to read this. Facebook obtained a ruling from an employment arbitrator banning its former global director for public policy Sarah Wynn-Williams from promoting her tell-all book about life inside the social network. Read the ruling here.
Putin balked at peace plan. Moscow said it agreed there should be a ceasefire with Ukraine but the agreement needed to “remove the root causes of this crisis.” Given that the “root cause” is the existence of a free Ukraine, expect both sides to continue to bomb each other, as they did with drones last night. Interesting detail: It is not clear whether Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, actually got to meet with Putin yesterday. Live coverage from the BBC here.
Arnault wants to be CEO in his sunset years. Fashion conglomerate LVMH wants to increase the age limit for their CEOs so that 76-year-old Bernard Arnault can stay at the company until he’s 85. Shareholders will vote on the change on April 17. Fortune
JPMorgan downgrades Tesla. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said in a new note to clients it is a “struggle to find anything analogous” to Tesla’s massive stock falloff. In the same note, Brinkman announced he is cutting his estimates for the company’s Q1 global deliveries by almost 100,000 cars and cut the company’s price target from $135 to $120. Fortune
Edward Jones CEO: buy the dip. Edward Jones CEO Penny Pennington told Fortune this week that investors should take advantage of volatile market conditions and buy the dip. She does not see a recession on the horizon, though she thinks crypto is “incredibly speculative at this point.” Fortune
The markets
• U.S. stocks may now be in correction territory but that is not the picture elsewhere. The S&P 500 is now down 6% YTD, and down more than 10% from its all-time high. But the Euro STOXX 600 is up 6% this year, the UK’s FTSE 100 is up 4% and China’s SSE Composite is up 5%.
From the analysts
• Goldman Sachs on the end of U.S. exceptionalism: “We came into the year with a strong consensus that the prolonged period of US economic and market 'exceptionalism' would continue. Since then, confidence in this view has been tested, resulting in a reversal of fortunes between the US and other stock markets. While the S&P 500 has fallen 8%, and the Nasdaq 12%, Europe and China are up 7% and 14% respectively in US dollar terms,” per Peter Oppenheimer et al.
• UBS on inflation: “Producer prices better reflect corporate pricing power than do consumer prices. Pricing power is also important in determining how much of a trade tax is passed along the supply chain (ultimately to consumers). Because of the political sensitivity it may be worth looking at food prices in today’s data. Egg prices are an internet meme, but did rise 186.4% y/y at the producer level last month,” per Paul Donovan.
• JPMorgan on steel and war: “We estimate Germany’s infrastructure and defence fund could create 65-95Mt total new steel demand, or 6-9Mtpa over 10 years. This would equate to a 25-35% increase in annual German steel consumption, 3.5-5.5% increase in annual EU27 steel demand (vs 2024). In parallel, we conceptually estimate Ukraine reconstruction could create ~20-25Mt total new steel demand vs Ukraine annual steel demand of ~5Mtpa,” per Dominic O'Kane.
• Apollo on the “wait-and-see economy”: “... consumers and firms are more cautious about spending decisions. Consumers are more reluctant to plan vacations, to buy cars, and to buy new washers and dryers. Similarly, firms are more reluctant to hire and more reluctant to do capex. … a wait-and-see economy eventually leads to a slowdown in the hard data. And markets should prepare for that scenario,” per Torsten Sløk.
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