Sean Collins

With the caveat that there’s a lot of back-and-forth on this, can you tell us a bit about what’s going on with the tariffs? 

Zack Beauchamp

Right now [as of late Thursday, March 13] we’re at a pause, because of both sides backing down. 

Earlier this week, the premier of Ontario — the Canadian equivalent of governor — threatened to put significant export taxes on electricity sent to the United States. Trump threatened some significant retaliation. 

They both sort of backed down. Lots of other tariff related negotiations are going on, and all this changes constantly. 

What Canadians say is that they want the Americans to stop doing this, because economic warfare isn't helping anybody. Essentially, “We want our things to go back to the way they were, but you keep threatening us, and so we have no choice but to fight back.” 

To be clear, Trump started this for no reason. And I mean no reason. There was no justification given that makes any sense. 

Sean Collins

So it’s a mystery what Trump wants from all this?

Zack Beauchamp

I truly don't know what Trump wants, and I'm not sure Trump knows. 

After the election, Trump made some comments about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau being “Governor Trudeau.” And at first they seemed like jokes, like, “Hahaha, Canada, right? It's small America,” just the sort of thing Canadians hate, but Americans engage in sometimes.

It seems somewhere along the way, inside Trump's head, this went from being a joke that he made to insult and bully somebody into a serious thing.

Now you have Trudeau saying — and this is the official line of the Canadian government as well — that Trump is trying to bully us into becoming part of the US. 

Of course, there's the explanation that this is all a negotiating stance. I find that ridiculous at this point, especially because, from what I understand, the US hasn’t articulated any demands privately, other than, “You can make it stop when you become the 51st state.”

Sean Collins

Tell me more about how Trump’s 51st state rhetoric is playing in Canada.

Zack Beauchamp

Everything Trump has said and done has led to a level of rage and defiance that I think very few Americans fully appreciate.

Yesterday, I was walking around my neighborhood, and there were three shops in a row that listed the Canadian-made goods that they were selling. 

There's a widespread boycott of American-related goods here in Ontario, which is not only Canada's largest province, but where state-run liquor stores that have a semi-monopoly have taken all American made products away.  

Canadians are so insulted, so infuriated because they have their own real sense of nationhood. One of the pillars of Canadian national identity is being not American, and to say “You should just become part of the US” is to assail one of the foundations of what makes Canada Canada.

Sean Collins

Are we in store for a long-term reorientation in US-Canada relations?

Zack Beauchamp

There's two ways to think about it, both of which could be equally valid. 

The first one is: One Trump term can be dismissed as a fluke, but two Trump terms suggest that the United States might be like this in the future.

If you take that view, that would lead to a long-term strategic reevaluation of the relationship and a transformation of the nature of the US-Canadian border. 

The second school of thought is: That's all really costly, the relationship takes a lot of work to change, and there'd be a lot of short- and long-term pain. 

The US-Canada relationship developed as it did for a reason. Geographic proximity makes it a naturally congenial economic and political relationship. It would be to everyone's detriment if the politics were more hostile.

So it might be that you start seeing a policy that acknowledges the long-term risks and takes some steps to ameliorate them, while attempting to leave the door open for a return to the pre-Trump status quo.

What I can say for sure is the odds that there will be some kind of political or economic rupture between the US and Canada that lasts decades into the future have gone up substantially.