Good morning. The EU warns it'll retaliate against more Trump tariffs. The risk of a US government shutdown recedes. And the best Guinness alternatives to toast this St. Patrick’s Day. Listen to the day’s top stories.

Warnings, threats and counterthreats reverberated across the Atlantic. “A real trade war” would have severe consequences for the world economy, according to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. At the same time, a top EU official warned China is “laughing” and stands to gain from the tit-for-tat fest between the US and its allies, reiterating the bloc’s readiness to retaliate. Both comments come hard on the heels of Donald Trump’s latest threat: a 200% levy on European alcoholic beverages.

The threat of a full-blown trade war is set to end the era of “US stocks exceptionalism” as investors turn toward fixed-income assets, a Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse showed. Some 77% of respondents see US bonds delivering a better return than stocks over the next month. For now, it’s gold that’s setting the records.

The fading odds of a government shutdown offered some comfort to financial markets. Democratic leader Chuck Schumer retreated on his threat to block a key Republican spending bill, cutting the risk of a disruptive March 15 federal suspension. Here’s our guide to everything you need to know about governmental shutdowns.

The US is quietly tightening sanctions on Russia by restricting payments for energy, as it seeks negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wants to discuss a peace proposal but stopped short of endorsing an immediate ceasefire. President Trump remains hopeful he can broker his brand of peace in Ukraine.

The Port of Balboa at the Pacific entrance of the Panama Canal Photographer: Walter Hurtado/Bloomberg

The Panama deal rumbles on. Shares of the conglomerate that sold a controlling stake in Panama ports slumped in Asia after China’s top office on Hong Kong affairs reposted a newspaper’s sharp attack on the decision. The company, owned by one of  Hong Kong’s highest-profile billionaires, was guilty of  "spineless groveling" and "selling out all Chinese people." Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shuli Ren delves into what this means. 

Deep Dive: Canada’s New Leader

Mark Carney makes his victory speech after winning the contest to lead the Liberal Party. Photographer: David Kawai/Bloomberg

Mark Carney gets sworn in today as Canada's new prime minster (the 24th if you've lost count.) A former governor of the central banks of Canada and the UK, he has a reputation as a technocrat and boasts a better economic resume than his predecessor Justin Trudeau.

• Sitting at the top of his inbox of course is how to deal with the guy in charge just over the 49th parallel.
• Several ministers say it's a good opportunity to reset relations after the fractious squabbling between Trudeau and Trump (not helped in anyway by Trump's talk of making Canada the 51st state.)
• But in a sign that Carney wants to get his ducks in a row before talking to Trump, his first foreign trip will be to Europe to meet French President Emmanuel Macron, and probably UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
• The tariff bustup spans everything from metals to golf balls, but it’s the Canada-US food supply chain that’s set to suffer more than most.

The Big Take

Illustration: Woshibai

The US health-care system spends as much on billing and claims processing as it does on treating cancer—around $200 billion a year. These little-known businesses add fresh layers of complexity and expense to an already convoluted system.

Opinion

Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

The 30-day ceasefire agreed between the US and Ukraine puts pressure on President Trump to make tough choices, rather than on Putin to end the war, Marc Champion writes. Trump must decide whether to agree to revised terms, add to sanctions on Russia, or a third way.

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