| Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email. The great powers are courting an island paradise, famed for its white-sand beaches and opulent resorts. This week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi flew into Mauritius to cement his country’s relationship with the government of the collection of islands that lies thousands of miles to the east of the African mainland. India has constructed and funded a metro line, a Supreme Court building and a hospital in the archipelago. It’s also set up an airstrip on the remote island of Agalega, to land surveillance aircraft.  The new India-built Metro Express. Photographer: Paul Choy/Bloomberg That’s not just goodwill. It’s largely an attempt to counter China, which has built an airport terminal and a dam, plus a television and radio station for the state broadcaster. Washington has stumped up $300 million for a mega embassy as it works to secure the future of the military base it shares with the UK on the island of Diego Garcia. After centuries of occupation, London has agreed to return the land to Mauritius provided it can keep the base — although the final pact hasn’t been signed. From that site in the Chagos Islands, the US airforce can operate across the Middle East and Asia, providing a counterbalance to China’s growing military might. A similar tussle is playing out all across the Indian Ocean. From Madagascar to Djibouti, China’s advances have put New Delhi on the back foot in an area it regards as its own sphere of influence. Off the coast of Somalia, Chinese naval vessels conduct anti-piracy missions. “Everything is playing to the advantage of Mauritius,” Dhananjay Ramful, the island nation’s foreign minister, said in an interview from his office overlooking the harbor in the capital. — Kamlesh Bhuckory Key stories and opinion:
China Piles the Pressure on India in Its Own Backyard
Trump Tells Starmer He’ll Likely Back Deal on Indian Ocean Base
A Guide to the UK’s Pending Handover of the Chagos: QuickTake
US Pitches Deal to Thwart Chinese Military Base in Africa
US and UK Must Keep Their Base at Diego Garcia: James Stavridis South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana may have to change the national budget after parties that control more than half the seats in parliament rejected his plans to raise taxes. The National Treasury on Wednesday proposed hiking value-added tax by 1 percentage point by mid-2026, increasing fuel levies and not adjusting tax brackets to account for inflation. The revenue and expenditure plan won backing from the African National Congress, the largest political party, and three others. But organizations with 201 of the 400 seats in the legislature said they will vote against the measure unless amendments are made. Consumers are the big losers in the budget.  WATCH: Standard Bank CEO Sim Tshabalala says South Africa’s ruling coalition is unlikely to splinter despite differences between the partners over the budget. The US Export-Import Bank’s board approved a $4.7 billion loan that makes up the biggest component of financing for TotalEnergies’ giant LNG project in Mozambique, sources say. Construction of the facility to liquefy and export the southern African nation’s natural-gas discoveries was halted four years ago because of Islamic State-linked militant attacks in the area. In addition to making sure workers can safely return to the site, the revival of earlier financing pledged by export-credit agencies is among the major steps needed to restart the development. Rwanda-backed M23 rebels consolidated control over the two largest cities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, effectively setting up a proto-state in the mineral-rich region and forcibly recruiting soldiers and civilians. That comes ahead of planned talks between the group and Congo’s government, mediated by Angola next week to end the conflict. Separately, a southern African bloc is ending a joint military deployment to the area that was meant to help keep peace.  M23 rebels guard Congolese police officers on Feb. 22 in Bukavu, Congo. Photographer: Hugh Kinsella Cunningham/Getty Images South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s legal team is set to begin talks to settle a lawsuit filed against him and government agencies by families of the victims of apartheid-era crimes, who say the state has stymied their attempts to get justice. The case alleges that successive ANC-led administrations deliberately frustrated attempts to move forward with prosecutions. While the Truth and Reconciliation Commission that former President Nelson Mandela set up recommended about 300 cases be pursued, there have only been a handful of prosecutions. South Sudan is on the verge of a new civil war with a tenuous power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar under pressure from renewed violence. While clashes between forces aligned to the two men aren’t unusual, the circumstances surrounding the latest conflict in the northeastern region of Nasir have analysts concerned about the fate of a peace accord signed in 2018 that ended years of fighting.  Auto rickshaw traffic on a street in Juba, South Sudan, on Sept. 21. Photographer: Kang-Chun Cheng/Bloomberg The European Union and South Africa held their first summit since 2018 this week, the latest step toward shoring up a shaky relationship in a world where both are currently the target of US President Donald Trump’s capricious politics. That new reality, according to Western diplomats Bloomberg spoke to, is warming relations which had cooled between the two after South Africa failed to clearly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and moved closer to it and China as part of the BRICS alliance.  Jennifer Zabasajja sits down with Bloomberg’s Africa Economist Yvonne Mhango to discuss the South African and Ghanaian budgets and what the global trade turmoil means for Africa. Next Africa Quiz — A deal by which African country to buy a stake in a Belgian diamond trader appears to be in limbo? Send your answers to gbell16@bloomberg.net. Data Watch - Gold prices passed $3,000 an ounce for the first time ever.
- Ghana’s new government outlined a lower fiscal deficit this year to “fix” the economy after a painful debt restructuring. It’s targeting a surplus on the primary budget balance, which excludes debt-service costs, of 1.5% of gross domestic product in 2025 — from a deficit of 3.9% of GDP last year.
- South Sudan’s economy will contract by about 30% in the current fiscal year, but could rebound after the resumption of oil exports, according to the World Bank.
- Cobalt prices are soaring as the surprise export ban by Congo, the world’s largest producing country, fuels mounting uncertainty about supply of the key battery material. Tin prices extended gains after a major mine in Congo stopped production because of the fighting in eastern Congo.
Coming Up - March 17 Nigeria inflation data for February, South Africa first-quarter inflation-expectations survey, MTN results
- March 18 Angola and Morocco interest-rate decisions
- March 19 South Africa inflation data for February & retail sales for January, Egypt trade balance for January, Ghana producer-inflation data for February
- March 20 South Africa interest-rate decision, Rwanda GDP data for the fourth quarter
- March 21 Eswatini interest-rate decision, Morocco inflation for February, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah sworn in as Namibian president
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