World markets on Friday ended another choppy week on an upbeat note as investors pushed aside growing concerns over the global trade war and bought back beaten down stocks, although few will be confident a definitive market bottom has been reached yet.
U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff agenda is very much in place, and markets remain vulnerable to the next escalation in tensions. The lack of any new announcement from Trump on Friday was, for investors, perhaps a classic case of 'no news is good news'.
Another dose of good news on Friday came from Germany, where Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz secured support from the Greens to revise the country's debt brake and unleash the biggest fiscal package since 1990, proposals that should deliver a massive boost to German and European growth.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate looks set to pass a stopgap spending bill and avert a partial government shutdown, lifting another cloud hanging over markets.
But the broader horizon is filled with dark, ominous clouds, indicated by some key market moves and economic data on Friday - safe-haven demand propelled gold above $3,000 an ounce for the first time, while U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest in nearly two and a half years and longer term inflation expectations hit their highest since 1993.
This is also reflected in the latest fund flows data from Bank of America - the last week saw the biggest equity outflow this year, and the biggest inflow into Treasuries since August.
Around $3 trillion was wiped off global equity market cap this week, bringing total losses since the Feb. 19 peak to around $7 trillion. Most of that is from the U.S., which still accounts for more than 70% of world market cap.
These are big numbers, but won't be bothering policymakers too unduly just yet. A renewed wave of selling though, and that calculus might start to change - investors will be scrutinizing the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England policy meetings next week more closely than ever.
