Australia Briefing
Good morning and welcome back, it’s Ainsley here with all the news you need to start your working week.Today’s must-reads:• Consumer prices
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Good morning and welcome back, it’s Ainsley here with all the news you need to start your working week.

Today’s must-reads:
• Consumer prices may rise after cyclone
• Albanese downplays Ukraine peacekeeping role
• India in talks with New Zealand on trade deal 

What's happening now

Treasurer Jim Chalmers laid bare the economic cost of Cyclone Alfred, warning that consumer prices may rise after crops and homes were destroyed. Initial government estimates indicate the cyclone delivered an immediate hit to GDP of as much as A$1.2 billion, potentially wiping one quarter of a percentage point from quarterly economic growth, Chalmers said in the text of a speech to be delivered later this week.
 

Sandbags outside a business in the suburb of Paddington in Brisbane. Photographer: Albert Perez/Getty Images AsiaPac

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese  downplayed the scale of any Australian participation in a future peacekeeping force in Ukraine, saying Australian forces would not play a prominent role. “It would be a small contribution if we chose to do so,” Albanese said. “What we want to see is peace, so we can have peacekeeping.”

India has started negotiations on a free trade deal with New Zealand as the countries seek to strengthen economic ties amid rising uncertainty in global trade.  India’s Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal met Todd McClay, New Zealand’s Minister for Trade and Investment on Sunday.

Knowledge is power, but deciding who to share it with can be the key to survival. Partners in the “Five Eyes” spy alliance, made up of the US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, may soon have to rethink their reliance on Washington, their most powerful member, writes Karishma Vaswani for Bloomberg Opinion.

What happened overnight

Here’s what my colleague, market strategist Mike “Willo” Wilson, says happened while we were sleeping…

European and US stocks surged and yields rose on Friday as Germany came to agreement on their massive spending plans, while the US managed to avert another government shutdown. The kiwi and Aussie dollars climbed amid all the positive sentiment to finish near the week’s highs. This leaves them well placed heading into New Zealand’s fourth-quarter GDP print and Aussie jobs data on Thursday. Local stock indexes should trade higher too.

Jerome Powell faces a tricky task this week of both assuring investors the economy remains on solid footing while also conveying policymakers stand ready to step in if necessary. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates steady when they meet March 18-19, but traders now see high odds of three rate cuts this year, most likely beginning in June.

China will take steps to revive consumption by boosting people’s incomes, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on Sunday, citing a statement from the State Council. Other measures include stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, and offering incentives to raise the country’s birth rate, as the government tries to ease the deflationary pressures afflicting the economy.

President Donald Trump may speak to Russian leader Vladimir Putin this week, White House special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday, as the US pushes for a quick ceasefire to end the war in Ukraine. “I expect that there’ll be a call with both presidents this week,” Witkoff said on CNN’s State of the Union. “And we’re also continuing to engage and have conversation with the Ukrainians.”

Steve Witkoff, US special envoy. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

What to watch

  • Nothing major scheduled

One more thing...

The Australian Grand Prix was wet and wild, with McLaren’s Lando Norris taking victory after a start in the pole position. Red Bull’s Max Verstappen finished just 0.895 seconds behind. There were just 14 finishers, after Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso hit the turn eight barriers on lap 34, while Red Bull’s Liam Lawson and Sauber’s Gabriel Bortoleto crashed out of the race 10 laps from home.

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