Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. Donald Trump’s most significant military action since he returned to power — weekend air strikes on Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis — will likely have far-reaching consequences for the wider Middle East and the oil market. The attacks on the Houthis killed more than 50 people, according to the group, designated a terrorist organization by the US. Washington described the operation as successful, citing the deaths of several key leaders. The Pentagon has vowed more strikes, saying they will be “unrelenting” until the Houthis cease attacking vessels around the southern Red Sea — one of the most important waterways for global trade. A US fighter jet conducts operations against Yemen-based Houthis in a photo released yesterday. Source: US Central Command The US says for now there’s no need to consider sending in ground troops. Still, the Houthis control western parts of Yemen including the capital, Sana’a, and the crucial port of Hodeida. Past experience suggests it won’t be easy to stop them from the air alone. They have been under bombardment of one form or another for much of the past decade — in 2015, a Saudi Arabia-led coalition started an aerial campaign to defeat them and, in the past year, the US, UK and Israel have all struck their positions. Yet while they’ve been weakened — their attacks dropped off in recent months — they’re still far from being toppled and continue to prevent most Western shipping firms from taking the Suez Canal route when sailing between Asia and Europe. Moreover, there’s a danger they could lash out against Trump by targeting oil-rich Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with drones and missiles. That’s something they did regularly until a 2022 truce in the Yemeni civil war. Oil has reacted to the US strikes, with Brent crude rising today. The Middle East will be watching the showdown to gauge how relentless Trump’s willing to be in backing his words with military action.— Paul Wallace A US warship carries out precision airstrikes against Houthi targets across Yemen in this photo released yesterday. Source: US Central Command |