| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a low-firing dynamic of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. Wake up, people! Gen Z is … getting old?! Exhibit A: Their high school experience is now TikTok nostalgia porn. Exhibit B: They’re becoming cheugy. Exhibit C: Some of them — including the Trump “bro vote” cohort — are starting to realize the economy does, in fact, impact them. On that last one, Conor Sen says “Gen Z is right to have negative feelings about the economy. Not only were its oldest members entering the workforce as the pandemic struck, but those in their early to mid-20s are also now bearing the brunt of a labor market that’s largely been frozen in place for the past two years.” What happened to millennials, you ask? Although they’ve been through their fair share of labor turmoil, they’re actually in a stronger position than some may think: “A ‘low hiring, low firing’ job market works reasonably well for older workers, who have been in their roles for some time and are protected by the low-firing dynamic,” Conor explains. But for a twenty-something year old just starting out in the workforce?? This environment is pure hell: “Notably, over the past 60 years, the US economy has been in a recession every other time the unemployment rate for the 20-24 cohort has risen by this much over a two-year period. But in a recession, the Federal Reserve aggressively lowers interest rates to spark growth and hiring. That’s not the case now. Solid real gross domestic product growth in 2024 and too-high inflation have reined in the Fed, which does not see the labor market as needing immediate support,” he notes. The private sector hiring rate is sitting at levels we haven’t seen since the early 2010s, when the economy was still hungover from the 2008 financial crisis. Add in student loans, skyrocketing rents and possible competition from “godlike AI” — a nightmare, by Parmy Olson’s estimation — and Gen Z’s career path is littered with potholes. “It all helps explain why young people might have a live-for-today mentality when it comes to consumption, breaking their budgets to spend on experiences such as concerts and travel, and in some cases, taking on debt to do so,” Conor writes. Case in point? Micro-retirement, which Erin Lowry says is Gen Z’s rebranding of the more well-known sabbatical, with a couple of caveats: There’s no pay while you’re away or a guaranteed job upon return. Given the bleak economic picture I just painted for you, going off the grid to live in Thailand with a bunch of Buddhist monks may sound extremely reckless. But Erin says there’s real value to be found in some time away from the hustle and bustle of corporate life. And hey, maybe companies could get on board with the idea. “Micro-retirement could be treated like an employee going out on parental leave, and work could be distributed amongst colleagues. Perhaps it could be a benefit that is unlocked after three years at a company, can last up to four weeks at a time and eligibility renews every three years,” she writes. Wouldn’t you rather retire in Fiji for a little bit now when you’re healthy, happy and mobile instead of waiting until you’re 73? Your future self — you know, the one with rainbow tout nails and/or diabetes — will thank you later! The Teddy Bear Sweater Economy | Can preppy be “back” if it never really left? Ever since the “quiet luxury” craze took off in 2023, the streets of Manhattan have been teeming with silk scarves, cropped trenches, Coach purses and Ralph Lauren sweaters. That all tracks with this chart from Andrea Felsted: But will US shoppers still be interested in $398 Polo Bear Crewnecks after “a massive round of revisions to 2025 growth forecasts,” as Mohamed A. El-Erian predicts? The latest retail sales figures don’t inspire much confidence, and neither does this: Apparently, adult women on TikTok are ordering boys’ sweaters from Ralph Lauren in size XL to save money. Meanwhile, John Authers says consumer inflation expectations are their highest since 1981: Given all that, “Ralph Lauren and Tapestry will have to prove their renaissance is more than being in the right place at the right time,” Andrea argues. She suggests the former focus on expanding in Europe and Asia as well as pushing further into hospitality. People might not be willing to buy an exorbitantly-priced teddy bear sweater, but they’ll probably still pony up cash for Instagram-worthy coffee at Ralph’s. The $34 shrimp cocktail at the Polo Bar is another story, though. Bonus Economy Video: If Trump is serious about shrinking the trade deficit, he should start with changing the rules that allow US multinationals to sidestep taxes at home. — Jonathan Levin | 
