| Good morning Tylko, Welcome to our federal election newsletter.
As the 2025 election campaign approaches the halfway mark, Anthony Albanese remains in the box seat to be the first Prime Minister to be returned to office since John Howard in 2004.
The Coalition’s primary vote has fallen a further point to 35 per cent, according to the latest exclusive Newspoll, with Labor leading 52-48 per cent on a two party preferred basis. At this rate, the Liberal/Nationals stand to record an even lower result than the last election, in which the Coalition won the lowest number
of seats in the House of Representatives since the Liberal Party was formed. However, the Prime Minister shouldn’t be jumping through hoops just yet. Labor’s primary vote appears stuck at 33 per cent, which suggests no improvement for the centre-left on its May 2022 result either.
Considering this was the lowest primary vote for the party at an election nearly a century ago, we could be in for some records to be set on May 3, with voters deeply uninspired by what is on offer from both major parties, and a majority now expecting a hung parliament.
While two-thirds of voters say they don’t want this outcome, a third surprisingly say they do.
Presumably, there are plenty of younger voters who have little or no memory of the first and last time this happened in 2010, following the global financial crisis.
The Coalition is hoping the mood may shift this week, however, as the leaders hit the road again following their dual campaign launches on Sunday - the first time both parties have held their events on the same day since, well, sometime before the 80s is our best guess. Albanese woke up in Adelaide this morning, while Peter Dutton
returned to home soil in Queensland. Both sides are offering billions more to get first home buyers into the market and offering competing tweaks to the tax system as the hip-pocket bidding war escalates.
The warnings from economists seem to have fallen on deaf ears in Canberra as the spending spree reaches new levels of fiscal insanity. | 
