Balance of Power
Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban hoped Donald Trump’s return would give him a boost but the US president’s trade war threatens his grip on power.
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Things aren’t going to plan for Viktor Orban, with Hungarians showing their disdain by blocking bridges over the River Danube in protests that have taken place every Tuesday for the past month.

The self-styled illiberal premier’s latest controversy landed yesterday with a parliamentary vote tightening restrictions on freedom of assembly, including targeting the annual Pride parade — measures wrapped up in anti-woke rhetoric that opponents see as further undermining democratic norms.

While the demonstrations remain modest, opposition to Orban’s 15-year rule is gathering strength.

A cost-of-living crisis has sapped support for his Fidesz party while the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff war risks further damage a year before elections.

That’s opened the way for Péter Magyar, who has emerged as the first credible challenger to Orban since 2010 in part by deploying savvy social-media messaging and relentless campaigning. His railing against government corruption and economic mismanagement is resonating in a country long used to having Orban call the shots.

Péter Magyar at a rally in Budapest in October. Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg

It’s not where the five-term Orban had hoped to be after the return of his spiritual ally to the White House. Trump promised a shot in the arm for the Hungarian economy after the quick resolution of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Instead, Hungary, as a hub for carmakers, stands to lose from Trump’s tariffs. The government has pared its economic growth forecast, while S&P on Friday pushed the nation’s credit rating to the edge of junk.

More pain may be to come if Trump’s China standoff impacts Orban’s bid to make Hungary a European hub for Chinese investments. Relying on the likes of CATL and BYD no longer looks such a winning idea.

It may all add up to a perfect storm for Orban, with Trump threatening to add to the headwinds. Zoltán Simon

Protesters take part in a rally on the Erzsébet Bridge in Budapest on April 1. Photographer: Attila Kisbenedek/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Trump’s administration pressed forward with plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports by initiating trade probes led by the Commerce Department. At the same time, the president said he’s exploring possible temporary exemptions to levies on imported vehicles and auto parts to give companies more time to set up US manufacturing facilities.

During his first overseas trip of the year, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on Vietnam to jointly oppose “unilateral bullying” to maintain the stability of global free trade and supply chains. Meanwhile, Beijing’s top official on Hong Kong affairs lashed out at Trump, saying his tariff war is about attacking the well-being of Chinese people. Influencers mocked the levies on TikTok and sources say China has ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down the recent selloff in the bond market, rejecting speculation that foreign nations were dumping their holdings of US Treasuries, while flagging that his department has tools to address dislocation if needed. The risk premium to hold 10-year Treasuries has climbed to the highest in a decade on concern US tariff policy will sap investor confidence in the country’s government bonds.

WATCH: Bessent speaks exclusively to Bloomberg’s Annmarie Hordern in Buenos Aires.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff described his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week as “compelling,” saying in a Fox News interview that they discussed steps that could end the war in Ukraine and perhaps lead to business opportunities. Trump continued to blame Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for the conflict that Russia began in February 2022.

Trump suggested Iran is slow-walking talks, reaffirming that he’d be willing to strike the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities to prevent Tehran from obtaining an atomic bomb, after the two nations set a second round of discussions for Saturday. As diplomatic momentum builds, IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi is expected to visit Tehran tomorrow, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged to expand military spending if he wins this month’s election and to change the country’s defense-procurement strategy so that it doesn’t depend as much on US contractors.

US Vice President JD Vance said it’s likely the Trump administration will seal a mutually beneficial economic agreement with the UK, telling the UnHerd website that America has “a much more reciprocal relationship” with Britain than with other European countries like Germany.

Singapore’s government dissolved parliament as Prime Minister Lawrence Wong prepares for May 3 elections, when he’ll seek a mandate to tackle cost-of-living concerns and to lead the trade-reliant nation into a complicated new era.

Fighting raging in a major city in Sudan’s Darfur region forced at least 400,000 people to flee for their lives, as the UK hosts an international conference that seeks to ensure aid access and find a path to ending the two-year civil war.

Lesotho granted Elon Musk’s Starlink a 10-year license to operate its satellite network in the tiny southern African mountain kingdom as it seeks to improve ties with the US.

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Chart of the Day

Trump is pulling America’s closest neighbors into the center of his trade war with China as he seeks to elbow the Asian giant out of a region the US has long considered its own backyard. Last week, he dispatched Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to Panama as part of his effort to reassert dominance over the country’s canal. On Monday, he hosted El Salvador President Nayib Bukele in the White House, while Bessent visited Buenos Aires and reiterated a US desire for Argentina to end its reliance on Chinese financing.

And Finally

Europe experienced the hottest year on record in 2024 as climate change combined with a strong El Niño cycle to generate a series of extreme weather events and force glaciers into retreat. Half the continent reported new heat records last year and ocean temperatures in Europe were the highest yet, scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization said in their annual analysis.

A woman shields from the sun with a map during high temperatures at Syntagma Square in Athens in July. Photographer: Hilary Swift/Bloomberg

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