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Data centers will prop up the dirty fuel
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Today’s newsletter looks at some of the key findings from BloombergNEF’s latest New Energy Outlook report. You can also read and share this story on Bloomberg.com. For unlimited access to climate and energy news, please subscribe

AI is set to prop up fossil fuels

By Shoko OdaMark Chediak, and Josh Saul

The world likely hit peak energy-related emissions in 2024. But the decline in the coming decade will be slowed due in large part to data center expansion powered by fossil fuels, according to the latest New Energy Outlook report from BloombergNEF. 

While renewables and storage is expected to make up more than half of the power capacity needed by 2035 to meet data center demand, almost two-thirds of additional electricity generation will come from fossil fuels like coal and gas, BNEF said Tuesday in its New Energy Outlook report. That’s because of the possibility of data centers helping to extend the life of existing coal and gas plants, the report said. 

Electricity demand globally is expected to surge on back of artificial intelligence use and data center expansion. That boom has prompted tech companies to secure round-the-clock electricity for their facilities. Some firms have turned to nuclear power, while others are eyeing natural gas as the most abundant and immediately available source of energy. 

This year is likely to be the first that world sees a structural decline in energy-related emissions — that is, a decline driven by fundamental shifts rather than a shock like the Covid-19 pandemic or the 2008 financial crisis. BNEF projects that emissions will fall 13% by 2035, but the increase of power-hungry data centers will blunt the drop. 

Cumulative carbon emissions are expected to be 3.5 gigatons higher — equivalent of 10% of total global emissions today — over the next decade because of additional computing-driven fossil fuel power use, the report said. The US and China are forecast to be the two biggest contributors by far.

The rise of AI is also reshaping US power markets, with data center demand projected to rise from 3.5% of total electricity demand today to 8.6% by 2035, according to another BNEF report released Tuesday. Amazon.com Inc. is the biggest data center operator with close to three gigawatts of capacity and another 12 gigawatts in its pipeline, followed by Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. US companies have developed the most major AI models, indicating that most large-scale AI training takes place in the US, the report said.

The report found that the global average temperature will reach 2.6C by 2100, though it is now “very close to slipping to an outcome closer to 2.7C,” the analysts wrote. The modeling is based on BNEF’s “economic transition scenario,” which models changes in the prices and deployment of technology but only includes present-day policies rather than new ones in its assumptions.  

While data centers present a “substantial opportunity in the coming decade” for power demand, estimates for future demand from such facilities is still uncertain and could change, the New Energy Outlook report added. In the US, President Donald Trump’s administration has touted the Stargate project in a bid to expand data centers, and Trump has signed executive orders to expand fossil fuel use in the service of the AI boom. But Microsoft, for one, has pulled back on data center projects around the world as it takes a harder look at its expansion plans.

Read this story on Bloomberg.com. 

Hungry data centers

5 million
Some of the largest planned data centers are expected to consume the same power as 5 million homes.

Rage against the AI machine

"When you are talking about AI and crypto, you are talking about some of the richest industries on the planet who can readily afford to bring their own clean power to the grid rather than dump themselves on the grid and make it everybody else's problem to light up the coal plants for them. These people have more money than God."
Sheldon Whitehouse
US Senator from Rhode Island
Artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency-mining data centers would have to pay a fee if they exceed a new federal greenhouse gas emission standard under Democratic legislation introduced Friday in the Senate. The legislation faces long odds in the GOP-controlled Senate.

Also on our radar

Europe experienced the hottest year on record in 2024, as climate change combined with a strong El Niño to generate a series of extreme weather events and force glaciers into retreat.

Half the continent reported new heat records in 2024 and ocean temperatures in Europe were the highest ever recorded, scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization said in their annual analysis of the continent’s climate.

Since the 1980s, Europe has warmed twice as fast as the global average, pushing national leaders to intensify their efforts to strengthen early warning systems against extreme weather, according to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. The extra heat in the atmosphere and ocean likely supercharged storms last year, bringing some of the worst flooding to Europe in more than a decade. 

Higher European temperatures — 1.47C above normal — led to record rates of glacier mass loss in Scandinavia and Svalbard, the scientists found. That followed another year of extreme temperatures across the continent in 2023.

Read the full details of the report on Bloomberg.com. 

A woman shields from the sun with a map during high temperatures at Syntagma Square in Athens, Greece, in July 2024. Photographer: Hilary Swift/Bloomberg

More from Green

Most banks in the industry’s biggest climate alliance endorsed a proposal that will refocus the group on providing financial support for the energy transition and also hold signatories to a less stringent standard for reducing the emissions enabled by their lending.

The new approach is intended to offer greater flexibility to members of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance. Requirements such as the need to set five-year goals for reducing the financed emissions from high-carbon sectors will now become recommendations, according to briefing documents that NZBA shared with its members. In addition, a prior mandate for signatories to align their portfolios with an aim of limiting global warming to 1.5C will be done away with. 

The vote of confidence in NZBA follows a tumultuous few months for the group. While once claiming to represent more than 40% of global banking assets, the alliance’s asset base has contracted by about a third, or roughly $27 trillion, since the beginning of December, according to data from its website.

The Net-Zero Banking Alliance’s asset base has contracted by about a third, or roughly $27 trillion, since the beginning of December, according to data from the group’s website. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

Green groups are suing over government climate websites. The Trump administration is facing a legal challenge over removing multiple tools for mapping climate, pollution and other overlapping risks facing the American public, particularly disadvantaged communities, from federal websites.  

A Green stock exchange moves closer to opening. The Securities and Exchange Commission approved an amended application from Green Impact Exchange (GIX) to register as a national securities exchange, paving the way for the launch of the first green stock exchange. Trading is expected to begin early next year, the company said. 

Generator startup Mainspring Energy raised $258 million. The company is developing novel generators that create electricity through a flameless reaction of air and fuel. Its technology is now in hot demand from data center customers who need cheap and reliable power.

Worth a listen 

Even with all of the recent market turmoil, the energy transition isn’t taking a break. Last year, global spending on clean-energy technologies was more than $2 trillion, according to BloombergNEF. Yet only a small fraction of that money makes its way to developing countries. On the latest Zero, Avinash Persaud, climate advisor to the president of Inter-American Development Bank, joins the podcast’s Moving Money series, and answers the question: How do we make the financial system work for climate action, not against it?

Listen to the full episode and learn more about Zero here. Subscribe on Apple or Spotify to stay on top of new episodes.

Avinash Persaud. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

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