| As the president continues his tariff machinations and the world holds its breath, investors are getting increasingly anxious. Global finance correspondent for Bloomberg Television Sonali Basak takes the pulse of the market in this moment of “max uncertainty.” Plus: the workers allowed to work for less than the minimum wage. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. The wildest of the market’s whipsaws have subsided, but investors are in deep risk management mode. Privately, during one call after another this week, they explained their concern that more American companies could face restructuring or even bankruptcy if the tariff uncertainties aren’t resolved soon. One big fear is that many companies have borrowed on a short-term basis to cover costs of inventory or other business loads. It’s not that they’re currently facing distress or financial calamity, but investors are reticent to put money to work when they don’t know the cost of different goods and assets under an uncertain tariff regime. “The enemy of investment, hiring, mergers and acquisitions, strategic decisions is uncertainty, and we have max uncertainty right now,” said Ralph Schlosstein, the chairman emeritus of Evercore, one of the world’s most prominent investment banks. For now, a slew of major companies are printing solid earnings results for the first quarter—from Citigroup to JPMorgan Chase to United Airlines. The biggest Wall Street equities trading desks posted records, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley bringing in more than $4 billion each for that unit alone. But investors are still deeply worried about the rest of the year. The more the current volatility persists, the higher the chance that “something goes awry, and that has some sort of domino effect,” Blackstone President Jonathan Gray said at an event last week at Georgetown University. Interviewed on Bloomberg TV this week, Schlosstein, a co-founder of investment giant BlackRock who also worked in President Jimmy Carter’s administration, said, “The two most recent periods of max uncertainty—the financial crisis and Covid—were caused by exogenous factors. And the US fiscal and monetary authorities were the source of stability. In this particular case, the source of uncertainty is government action. So it’s a little bit harder to figure out how to put that genie back in the bottle.”  A ticker at News Corp. in New York captures the market’s gyrations on April 9. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg He said there’d need to be a more prolonged period of stable policy before executives can make decisions. Over at investment bank Moelis & Co., Eric Cantor said, “We’re still America. There is still this unbelievable country that we’ve got” that draws capital, including a massive consumer economy. But Cantor, Moelis’ vice chair and the Republican House majority leader from 2011 to 2014, also said investors are on pause. Speaking in a Bloomberg TV interview, he said the difference this time around is that Donald Trump is sticking to his “literal word” in trying to close the trade deficit. He also said investors would feel more confident if they saw tangible outcomes—say, Japan looking to import more US goods, as an example. “Really, really important that we see manifestations of success,” Cantor said. “The president is really good at communicating. I hope we can see some communication of success, and people will begin to see what the trade-off here is.” Harvey Schwartz, chief executive officer of Carlyle, pointed out that the relationship between China and the US is still the biggest elephant in the room. At a taping for Bullish, an upcoming Bloomberg Originals series, he said the two giants “haven’t found an equilibrium around cooperation,” and pointed to other areas of worry.  Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Chicago yesterday. Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg Beyond trade, Schwartz and many others are anxious about how much the economy can slow in the face of inflation that remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Yesterday, speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised concerns about inflation staying persistently higher in the wake of tariffs. It stoked fears about a dynamic of stagflation—higher prices and slowing growth—a conundrum that would put the Fed in the difficult position of either lowering interest rates to support a tumbling economy or keeping rates high to combat high prices. Someone will lose in either case. Schwarz added, “The concern people have now is that business activity slows, but because of the policy decisions, there’s this period where prices are elevated, and you end up in that part of the Venn diagram for a period of time where you do have elevated prices and a slowing economy.” Meanwhile the VIX, sometimes known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, has remained above 30. The one-year average is closer to 17, though it has spiked above 60 in the peak moments of volatility this year. DataTrek’s Nick Colas calls 35 the “danger zone.” We’re not that far off. Investors “should still stay buckled up,” Schwartz said. “It’s just a question of whether the airbags come out now.” | 
