| Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email. African nations were blindsided by US President Donald Trump’s trade war and are desperately seeking to forge a response. None were harder hit than Lesotho, a tiny mountain kingdom that was slapped with the continent’s highest reciprocal rate of 50%. Others were Mauritius at 40% and Madagascar 47%, while South Africa faces a 30% levy.  A textile worker in Lesotho. Photographer: Roberta Ciuccio/AFP/Getty Images With a 90-day reprieve on the reciprocal levies (an across-the-board 10% duty remains in effect), governments have a short window to argue their case. “We will be terribly affected,” Mokhethi Shelile, Lesotho’s trade minister, told us in an TV interview. “We are going to have liquidity issues in terms of foreign currency.” Granted, there is indeed a sharp disparity in the balance of trade with the world’s largest economy — the yardstick Trump used to calculate his tariffs. Last year, Lesotho sent mostly diamonds and textiles worth $237 million to the US, while its imports from there totaled just $2.8 million. The nation is encircled by South Africa, from where it secures the bulk of its needs. As a least-developed country with 2.3 million people, the kingdom has limited ability to buy American products and close the gap.  WATCH: Trade Minister Mokhethi Shelile speaks with Bloomberg’s Jennifer Zabasajja about Trump’s tariffs. Lesotho is “comfortable” with the 10% levy on its goods as it impacts its competitors too, and because American consumers would ultimately pick up the tab, Shelile said. But the higher rate would place 12,000 direct jobs and another 40,000 indirect jobs at risk, put its finances under severe strain and limit the ability to pay for imported electricity and hire construction equipment. “We are scrambling for a solution that can work quite quickly,” he said, adding the economy would need five years to adjust to the new tariff regime. Tough talks lie ahead, with an initial round set to take place in South Africa next week. Lesotho — like many other smaller nations on the continent — has little to bargain with. — Mike Cohen Key stories and opinion:
Trump’s Harsh Tariff Sparks Fear of Liquidity Crisis in Lesotho
Trump Tariffs Are a ‘Disaster’ for World’s Poorest Countries
Trump Tariffs to Supersede US Congress-Backed Africa Trade Pact
Trump Hits African Kingdom Lesotho With World-Highest Tariff
What Are the ‘Reciprocal Tariffs’ That Trump Paused? QuickTake  In this week’s Next Africa podcast, Jennifer Zabasajja speaks with Maarten Van Doesburg, head of economics at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology, about what could be at stake in trade negotiations. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has seen a key part of his economic-reform agenda rebuffed by lawmakers, exposing a century-old fracture in national politics between the wealthier Christian south and predominantly Muslim north. The rejection of proposed tax changes is pressuring a budget also strained by the trade war that’s collapsed the price for oil — the mainstay of the Nigerian economy. The country’s tax take as a share of gross domestic product is one of the lowest in the world at about 11%.  Election campaign posters in Lagos, Nigeria, in February 2023. Photographer: Benson Ibeaubuchi/Bloomberg South Africa’s finance minister sees no alternative to a tax increase at the heart of a budget impasse that is threatening to unravel the governing coalition. The Democratic Alliance, the second-largest party in the unity government after Enoch Godongwana’s African National Congress, opposed a 0.5 percentage-point hike in VAT and has filed a lawsuit to block its implementation. Meanwhile, an opinion poll by the Johannesburg-based Institute of Race Relations showed support for the ANC trailing the DA for the first time. Barrick Gold said Mali shut its office in the capital and is threatening to take over its operations. The cash-strapped military junta running the West African nation has demanded payments for alleged back taxes and wants the Canadian firm to adhere to new laws that would give the state a larger stake in the mine and higher royalties. Nearby, the government of Ghana took control of Gold Fields’ Damang mine after rejecting an application to extend the company’s lease.  A truck transports blasted ore in a mining pit at Gold Fields’ mine in Tarkwa, Ghana. Photographer: Francis Kokoroko/Bloomberg Fighting in South Sudan has left more than 180 people dead and forced 125,000 others to flee their homes since March, the United Nations said. Armed clashes and aerial bombardments in the northeast also injured more than 250 people. Tensions flared in the East African nation after authorities placed Vice President Riek Machar under house arrest last month for allegedly plotting a rebellion against President Salva Kiir. That’s raised fears of a return to the civil war that ended with a power-sharing deal in 2018. Zimbabwe’s bullion-backed ZiG currency is “fast going into extinction” because policy mistakes have pushed it to the sidelines, according to Imara Asset Management, the country’s oldest independent brokerage. Separately, a majority of White Zimbabweans who lost their farms during a land grab more than two decades ago have rejected an offer of dollar bonds as part of a government pay off. The 10-year securities worth $308 million were “unacceptable,” according to Deon Theron, the representative of one of three groups seeking compensation.  A ZiG banknote at a market in Harare. Photographer: Cynthia R Matonhodze/Bloomberg Kenya is seeking realistic targets in a new program with the International Monetary Fund, according to a top government official, following deadly protests over taxes and Trump’s trade levies. The East African nation’s government will start talks with the lender soon and probably conclude a deal by November, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi said in an interview. The IMF and Kenya terminated a four-year deal last month after the administration didn’t meet benchmarks, meaning the nation had to forgo about $850 million of pending funds. Next Africa Quiz — Which African nation became the latest to tie up with Elon Musk’s Starlink Internet Service after granting it a license to operate this week? Send your answers to gbell16@bloomberg.net. Data Watch - Nigeria’s inflation rate rose for the first time since the data was rebased in January, advancing even before the fallout from a global trade war is felt. Annual consumer prices rose 24.2% in March. Goldman Sachs say Nigeria may have to devalue its naira again.
- Ghana’s stocks benchmark is leading global equity gains as the government’s commitment to cut spending after a painful debt restructuring pushes inflation and borrowing costs lower. Meanwhile, the West African nation is set to receive a $370 million instalment from the IMF.
- African funds raised $4 billion in 2024 — double the value from a year earlier — to invest in startups and infrastructure projects, according to the African Private Capital Association.
Coming Up - April 22 Kenyan President William Ruto visits China
- April 23 South Africa inflation data for March, Capitec results
- April 24 Zambia inflation for April & trade balance for March, South Africa producer inflation for March, Anglo American Platinum production report, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives in South Africa for a working visit
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