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Economists raise US recession risk amid trade policy shifts
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April 18, 2025
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Top Story
President Donald Trump has issued executive orders to bypass the traditional regulatory process, a move legal scholars call a significant and potentially illegal power expansion. The orders include repealing regulations without public comment and sunsetting long-standing environmental protections. "[W]e could see, again, a radical reshaping of the regulatory ... structure in a very short time," said Nina Mendelson of the University of Michigan.
Full Story: The Hill (4/17) 
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Policy Watch
President Donald Trump has expressed reluctance to further increase tariffs on China, citing concerns about hindering trade. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump noted that Chinese officials, possibly at the behest of President Xi Jinping, have reached out to initiate talks. Currently, the US has imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, with China retaliating at 125%. Trump is optimistic about reaching a trade deal that includes the sale of TikTok's US assets.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (4/17),  Bloomberg (4/17) 
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President Donald Trump has said he is confident the US will strike a trade deal with Europe before his 90-day tariff pause expires, as talks with top global economies accelerate. He also downplayed China's influence, vowing a "very good deal" with Beijing and aligning with Italy's Giorgia Meloni on energy and defense cooperation.
Full Story: Politico (4/17),  The Washington Post (4/17),  Financial Times (4/17) 
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Economists have revised their outlook for the US, citing President Donald Trump's trade policies. In a Wall Street Journal survey, economists increased the probability of a recession within the next year to 45%, and projected slower gross domestic product growth and higher inflation.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (4/17) 
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Industry Watch
The European Union's stricter environmental regulations are costing global chemical companies more than $20 billion annually, according to the European Chemical Industry Council. Companies such as Dow and LyondellBasell are reassessing their European operations due to weak demand and rising costs.
Full Story: Reuters (4/18) 
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International Recycling Group has canceled plans for a $300 million large plastics recycling plant in Erie, Pa., citing federal funding freezes, tariff uncertainty and shifting market demand for recycled materials. The project's collapse is a major economic loss for the region, despite years of state and local support and millions in pledged public investment.
Full Story: Construction Briefing (4/16) 
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    Research & Innovation
    A CNBC survey of 380 supply chain professionals, including members of CSCMP, found that most companies don't plan to reshore manufacturing despite the Trump administration's tariffs, citing the high costs of doing so and a lack of skilled labor. The survey indicates that 65% of respondents believe establishing a domestic supply chain would at least double their current costs.
    Full Story: CSCMP Supply Chain Xchange (4/15) 
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    A Tsinghua University study in Communications Earth & Environment highlights that global plastic recycling remains stagnant at 9% despite expanding production. The study highlights changes in waste disposal trends, with incineration now at 34% and landfill usage decreasing to 40%.
    Full Story: Plastics News (4/17) 
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    Leadership & Management
    5 ways to put people first to build a great culture
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    Creating a culture-first company where your teams look forward to working each day involves setting clear expectations up front, introducing changes in increments, offering shared learning experiences and creating accountability methods, writes Thiru Thangarathinam, the founder and CEO of KeenStack. "A culture-first company is a business that is built around people and, therefore, built to succeed," Thangarathinam notes.
    Full Story: SmartBrief/Leadership (4/17) 
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