Here we go again. A far-right leader storms through the first round of Romania's presidential election, while an independent candidate knocks out the pick of the governing coalition from the race altogether. Romania’s repeat vote was supposed to curb anti-establishment forces. Instead, it emboldened them, and the result is another political earthquake. The government buckled — along with the currency — and left the country figuring out its future ahead of a critical runoff vote on May 18. Investors wasted no time in pulling their money out. In the ensuing market selloff, borrowing costs spiked as the sheer scale of the country’s budget deficit raised immediate concerns that fiscal reforms will be delayed. The spending hole was a whopping 9.3% of gross domestic product last year, the biggest in the European Union. Meanwhile, as flagged last week, the fate of €29 billion ($32.7 billion) of EU funding hangs in the balance. George Simion, leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians, emerged with 41% of the vote in last weekend’s first round. He told Bloomberg he wants to shrink the state, slash inefficient spending and swing a metaphorical chainsaw through the bureaucracy. But his promise to change the status quo in Romania for the first time in more than three decades might be easier said than done in the country rife with fragile institutions and simmering social tensions. While the rhetoric heats up, the world’s longest serving central bank governor is being confronted with the worst forex market selloff since 2009. For National Bank of Romania chief Mugur Isarescu, convincing global investors that the chaos is under control might be his toughest mission yet. Will George Simion become president? Romania votes in a runoff on May 18. Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg |