Eastern Europe Edition
Hi, this is Irina Vilcu in Bucharest. Welcome to our weekly newsletter on what’s shaping economics and investments from the Baltic Sea to th
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Hi, this is Irina Vilcu in Bucharest. Welcome to our weekly newsletter on what’s shaping economics and investments from the Baltic Sea to the Balkans. You can subscribe here.

Sinking Leu

Here we go again. A far-right leader storms through the first round of Romania's presidential election, while an independent candidate knocks out the pick of the governing coalition from the race altogether.

Romania’s repeat vote was supposed to curb anti-establishment forces. Instead, it emboldened them, and the result is another political earthquake. The government buckled — along with the currency — and left the country figuring out its future ahead of a critical runoff vote on May 18.

Investors wasted no time in pulling their money out. In the ensuing market selloff, borrowing costs spiked as the sheer scale of the country’s budget deficit raised immediate concerns that fiscal reforms will be delayed. The spending hole was a whopping 9.3% of gross domestic product last year, the biggest in the European Union. Meanwhile, as flagged last week, the fate of €29 billion ($32.7 billion) of EU funding hangs in the balance.

George Simion, leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians, emerged with 41% of the vote in last weekend’s first round. He told Bloomberg he wants to shrink the state, slash inefficient spending and swing a metaphorical chainsaw through the bureaucracy. But his promise to change the status quo in Romania for the first time in more than three decades might be easier said than done in the country rife with fragile institutions and simmering social tensions.

While the rhetoric heats up, the world’s longest serving central bank governor is being confronted with the worst forex market selloff since 2009. For National Bank of Romania chief Mugur Isarescu, convincing global investors that the chaos is under control might be his toughest mission yet.

Will George Simion become president? Romania votes in a runoff on May 18. Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg

Around the Region

Czech Republic: Michal Strnad’s Czechoslovak Group, which started out trading Soviet military material under his father three decades ago, has tripled in value in the past two years, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. 

Lithuania: The Baltic nation is appealing to Germany’s new chancellor to come on board with a proposal to seize Russia’s immobilized central bank assets as the European Union debates ways to finance support for Ukraine.

Poland: The central bank cut interest rates for the first time since October 2023 as the country prepares to elect a new president in a little over a week’s time. A number of candidates have called on policymakers to start monetary easing. The Czechs, meanwhile, trimmed rates to their lowest since 2021.

Hungary: Zoltan Kurali, a longtime Deutsche Bank executive who previously headed the Debt Management Agency, has become the central bank’s most influential vice governor after a shakeup in management roles.

Czech Republic: A South Korean nuclear-energy project worth more than $18 billion was delayed after a lawsuit by Electricite de France SA temporarily blocked the signing of the construction contract.

Chart of the Week

Erste Group Bank agreed to buy much of Banco Santander’s operations in Poland for about €7 billion, the Austrian bank’s largest deal ever. It will acquire a 49% stake in Santander Bank Polska for €6.8 billion and take full ownership of the Spanish lender’s asset management unit in Poland for about €200 million. The companies had confirmed a previous Bloomberg News report that they were in talks. 

By the Numbers

Things to Watch

  • Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic recovered from an illness in the US and headed to Moscow to take part in events marking the 80th anniversary of victory against Nazi Germany and to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, was also due to attend.
  • Albania holds parliamentary elections on Sunday with  Edi Rama expected to win his fourth term as prime minister.
  • Romania’s central bank holds its monetary policy meeting and is expected to hold interest rates steady ahead of the presidential runoff on May 18.

Final Thought

Renata Kellnerova has kept a low profile in business matters since she became the region’s richest woman four years ago when her husband died in a helicopter crash. So, this week’s appearance with a brief live statement to reporters was a surprise, as was the content. After achieving his goals in three years, the CEO of her PPF Group will be replaced by two co-chiefs from within the company, as has been the tradition. Kellnerova, 57, was keen to put on record her gratitude. Indeed, PPF’s success has made her and her family a $16.6 billion fortune.

Renata Kellnerova

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